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Thread: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

  1. #451
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Bruce flies out to left. 2 outs.

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  3. #452
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    You can run all the correlations you want.

    But nobody, not even you, knows how the Pirates or Cards will be playing over the next weeks. It's a very long season and teams go hot and cold.

    A critical element of this is the nature of the opposition. So that's what I tend to look at.

    Particularly this year when there are two doormat teams in the Central. Which teams face the Astros and Cubs the most is important. Those teams lose so often.

    So we disagree, but I have always focused on schedule in looking to possible future results and will continue to do so. It doesn't mean it works every time, they have to play the games.

    But if the Cards can prevail given their schedule, they will have climbed a huge hill.
    I was thinking the same thing. They still have a West coast road trip with the Padres and Dodgers. If they do it....hats off.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  4. #453
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  5. #454
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No, I don't know. But I do know that the talent and ability of the teams is the more important factor first and foremost. So I'm not going to concern myself too with with the schedule when I feel St. Louis is flat out a better team than Pittsburgh. And that's becoming more and more clear by the week.
    I think the Cards are better than the Pirates too. But there is another team on the field too. Sometimes it's the Cubs or Astros. Sometimes it's the Nationals, Reds, Dodgers or Pirates.

    I think the identity of that other team is important. The opposition is half the game.

  6. #455
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Tying run coming up...
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  7. #456
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Frazier lines a single to left.

  8. #457
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Tease us?
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  9. #458
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Nope. We're still bad.


    Tomorrow...
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  10. #459
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Rolen strikes out swinging. Reds lose 8-5.

  11. #460
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think the identity of that other team is important. The opposition is half the game.
    It's not half the game over a larger sample though. Or at least it's not necessarily half of the equation. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted because in this case, the difference between the winning expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is probably much larger than the average of the teams they're facing over the last 35 games.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL
    We would feel the same way if the situations were reversed...given the way this game went.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  13. #462
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    "Statement"....5th time
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  14. #463
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL
    I'm pretty sure I'd have found that screwdriver Raisor was talking about earlier and stuck it in my ear a long time ago if I were forced to listen to the STL feed.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  15. #464
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It's not half the game over a larger sample though. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted.

    In other words, the Pythagorean expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is a lot larger than the average differences in future competition they'd be facing.
    The sample I've been focused on is about five or six weeks. I haven't done probability. I'm simply looking at the schedule.

    Need Leake and Bailey to come through, get at least one win.

  16. #465
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I'm pretty sure I'd have found that screwdriver Raisor was talking about earlier and stuck it in my ear a long time ago if I were forced to listen to the STL feed.
    Forced is correct. Reds and MLB feeds blacked out here.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.


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