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Thread: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

  1. #466
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The sample I've been focused on is about five or six weeks. I haven't done probability. I'm simply looking at the schedule.

    Need Leake and Bailey to come through, get at least one win.
    But your whole point has been we should root for the Cardinals because the Pirates have an easier schedule. The basis you were making that claim is that you believed the Pirates had a better probability of catching up. You weren't using probability, but that was the insinuation you were making.

    But if you added up the actual probability, which ESPN and Baseball Prospectus both does, the Cardinals still have a better chance of catching the Reds despite the schedule. That's because they take into account probability.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #467
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    We would feel the same way if the situations were reversed...given the way this game went.
    If Brantley were that repetitive I'd call him on it too.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  4. #468
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Please tell me Leake is going to pitch a gem tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  5. #469
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    Please tell me Leake is going to pitch a gem tomorrow.
    Does anybody know his Daygame/nightgame splits? ERA?
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  6. #470
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    But if you added up the actual probability, which ESPN and Baseball Prospectus both does, the Cardinals still have a better chance of catching the Reds despite the schedule. That's because they take into account probability.
    and the fact the Cards are now 2 games ahead of the Pirates and have picked up 2 games in 24 hours against the Reds. So yes...they have a better chance of catching the Reds over the Pirates as of now.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  7. #471
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    But your whole point has been we should root for the Cardinals because the Pirates have an easier schedule. The basis you were making that claim is that you believed the Pirates had a better probability of catching up. You weren't using probability, but that was the insinuation you were making.

    But if you added up the actual probability, which ESPN and Baseball Prospectus both does, the Cardinals still have a better chance of catching the Reds despite the schedule. That's because they take into account probability.
    I don't have the ability to run probabilities, I wouldn't know where to start. I think they are probably useful but it's impossible to predict accurately how a team will play in the future. Too many peaks and valleys over a season.

    So to me schedule becomes very important. But I'm just repeating at this point, so I'm calling the discussion over for today.

  8. #472
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    If Brantley were that repetitive I'd call him on it too.
    People in St. Louis can't even stand the A-Clowns they have running their broadcast. For as much of a history they've had with great broadcasters (Buck, Carey, etc), it's shocking how bad their TV broadcast is. My advice is mute the TV and listen to KMOX. Shannon is at least entertaining and drunk half of the time.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  9. #473
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    Please tell me Leake is going to pitch a gem tomorrow.
    Leaks is going to pitch a gem tomorrow

  10. #474
    Member Reds Fanatic's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    Does anybody know his Daygame/nightgame splits? ERA?
    He has not pitched that much during the day this year only 6 starts against 18 at night. He has a 0-1 record with 5.80 ERA in day games and 5-7 with a 4.20 ERA at night

  11. #475
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Leake vs. Garcia... could be a Rolaids night for both sides. Garcia was dominant in his last performance but is wildly inconsistent on the road.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  12. #476
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Leaks is going to pitch a gem tomorrow
    Thanks bro, I'm going to hold you to that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  13. #477
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    People in St. Louis can't even stand the A-Clowns they have running their broadcast. For as much of a history they've had with great broadcasters (Buck, Carey, etc), it's shocking how bad their TV broadcast is. My advice is mute the TV and listen to KMOX. Shannon is at least entertaining and drunk half of the time.
    Its just such a case study in homerism on the air. Agree with you though, I like Mike Shannon.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  14. #478
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    Its just such a case study in homerism on the air. Agree with you though, I like Mike Shannon.
    To be fair, I think every local broadcast has their fair share of homerism. Listening to the Reds broadcasts at times is enough to start one to drink if you're an outsider.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  15. #479
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Mike Shannon is awesome. The other day, he said something that really made me laugh. It was something to the effect of "man, this inning is longer than a grocery list for an orphanage". Got a nice chuckle out of it.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  16. #480
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: 8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

    Went to the game tonight. Boy did that 6th inning blow. It seemed to last an hour and was a nightmare that you couldn't wake up from. Auuggghhhh!!!!!!!!

    Reds could never get the big hit to break it open. And after the Cards' big inning, they seemed to just fold. And it was a loooonnnngggg game. Felt sorry for the Larkin thing afterwards. It was 11:30 and we were all tired and disappointed.

    Pay attention to the open sky


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