Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

[Plus Plus]

Also, (correct me if I'm wrong) it's now been stated in this thread that Ludwick, Stubbs, and Bruce are all negative defenders this year according to UZR. Wouldn't that blow a hole in the "don't move anybody because the Reds play good OF defense" theory?

I'm pretty sure that is correct, although Stubbs is at like -0.2 UZR/150.

However, isn't the question then why you would put players at harder positions if they aren't already providing good or better defense at the positions they are currently playing?

[reds44]

I'm pretty sure that is correct, although Stubbs is at like -0.2 UZR/150.

However, isn't the question then why you would put players at harder positions if they aren't already providing good or better defense at the positions they are currently playing?

Oh for sure. You have to think taking a negative RFer and putting him in CF and taking a negative LFer and putting him in RF makes them even more negative. All I'm saying is I'm not sure how much water the "Reds play good OF defense so don't move anybody" holds.

I also hope everybody singing that tune doesn't want Frazier playing over Rolen either, but I'd be shocked if that's the case.

[reds44]

If the Reds do this, it's for no other reason than for the postseason. The Reds will probably glide to an NL Central Championship with Stubbs in CF and nobody would think anything of it. With how often Rolen gets days off, Frazier would probably play a third of the time at 3rd and you could find ABs for him at other times. This would be the Reds trying to get their 8 best hitters in the lineup come October.

[Kc61]

Also, (correct me if I'm wrong) it's now been stated in this thread that Ludwick, Stubbs, and Bruce are all negative defenders this year according to UZR. Wouldn't that blow a hole in the "don't move anybody because the Reds play good OF defense" theory?

Yes, all three outfielders have been below zero under UZR and UZR/150 except Stubbs recently had a surge and is around zero in each measure.
(UZR is so subjective, Heisey this year has much better CF ratings than Stubbs.)

But Stubbs is a real centerfielder, you can't compare him to somebody plugged in there because of his bat.

This is an interesting discussion, but the clear likelihood is that the Reds won't make a major switch at this point. More likely - given the brutal schedule of late, when Votto comes back and depth is restored guys will get appropriate rest. And part of that effort may involve trying Bruce in CF on occasion.

If it works well, then I could see them going with Bruce in CF in the playoffs, but first I think it may be tried out on a spot basis at most.

[defender]

As has already been stated, if the Reds do this, it would be because they are considering it for the playoffs. The Reds may not plan to rest Rolen and Ludwick, but still want Frazier in the lineup.

[camisadelgolf]

I'd like to see if there's a study that can correlate UZR and trips to the disabled list. Granted, the Reds outfield has a lower UZR this year, but they've also done a great job of staying healthy and getting in the lineup everyday. Maybe it's because they're not senselessly diving for balls out of their range and banging up their body too much.

[jojo]

I'm pretty sure that is correct, although Stubbs is at like -0.2 UZR/150.

However, isn't the question then why you would put players at harder positions if they aren't already providing good or better defense at the positions they are currently playing?

If I had to guess a potential defensive value, based upon the last several years of UZR, Bruce might be expected to be a -10 run defender in CF. Frazier might be a -5 to -10 run defender in the corner over the course of a season.

[traderumor]

Despite a recent power surge against lefties, Dusty will probably use the "sitting Brucie against a tough lefty, get Todd some ABs" reasoning and continue using Stubbs/Heisey in CF. If he's gonna do that, start Heisey against righties and Stubbs against lefties.

[REDREAD]

I'd argue the other way.

You can only win if you out score the other team.

You can play a perfect defensive game, but if you don't score you can't win.

Giving the other team extra outs is probably the easiest way to lose in the playoffs. One ball that Bruce/Frasier doesn't get to in the new defensive alignment may change the game.. IMO, that's more likely to happen than the offensive upgrade gained.

We've tried this stategy before.. Keppinger at SS, Bruce in CF, Aaron Boone at 2b.. It just doesn't work..

[OldXOhio]

Despite a recent power surge against lefties, Dusty will probably use the "sitting Brucie against a tough lefty, get Todd some ABs" reasoning and continue using Stubbs/Heisey in CF. If he's gonna do that, start Heisey against righties and Stubbs against lefties.

I'm of the same opinion, although I do agree you might see Bruce in CF once a week after this roadie.

And yeah, i don't see why Drew Stubbs would start a game against a RHP the rest of this season. Smarter folks on here will have to provide an analysis of the defensive metrics b/w the two, but I would suspect Heisey's numbers, despite his deficiences, are enough of an improvement to warrant the starts.

[Griffey012]

But this isn't spring training. Whether these folks have the tools to play these positions is one piece of the equation. Whether the Reds would make that change now is very different story.

There's the famous situation when a Tigers player, Mickey Stanley, in 1968 was moved to shortstop to replace Ray Oyler, who was hitting below the Mendoza line. Stanley was moved there to get more offense in the lineup and he had never played SS before in the bigs. He played shortstop creditably at the end of the regular season and stayed there through the World Series.

I don't think the Reds management would have played Stanley at shortstop.

But Bruce has played CF in the minors and in the bigs, Frazier has not played RF in the bigs or the minors, but has played LF. SS and RF are two different positions in terms of difficulty, and LF is not identical, but similar to RF. It could be plausible to shift Ludwick to RF as he has played there a lot in his career, he has more career games in RF than LF, but lately has played more LF.

I think Reds management will give this a shot some and see how it works out, especially if Stubbs keeps doing what he has been doing.

[reds44]

Despite a recent power surge against lefties, Dusty will probably use the "sitting Brucie against a tough lefty, get Todd some ABs" reasoning and continue using Stubbs/Heisey in CF. If he's gonna do that, start Heisey against righties and Stubbs against lefties.

Leads all LHB in homers vs lefties since the start 2010.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Anything that doesn't involve Drew Stubbs as the Reds' everyday CF has my full interest. It's ridiculous he can play at a pathetic level all year and keep his starting job. All because he's a former first-round pick. Turrible.

[Kc61]

But Bruce has played CF in the minors and in the bigs, Frazier has not played RF in the bigs or the minors, but has played LF. SS and RF are two different positions in terms of difficulty, and LF is not identical, but similar to RF. It could be plausible to shift Ludwick to RF as he has played there a lot in his career, he has more career games in RF than LF, but lately has played more LF.

I think Reds management will give this a shot some and see how it works out, especially if Stubbs keeps doing what he has been doing.

Whether Bruce played CF years ago and whether Frazier might find RF similar to LF doesn't change my view.

I don't think the Reds are willing to sacrifice their outfield defense. And I don't think they would likely make this key change in the middle of the pennant race. It's not their way.

As the season progresses and the Reds rest some players they might give this a shot in a couple of games, sure. But I don't think it's a front burner item.

When Stubbs doesn't play, I think they'll mostly use Heisey.

[11larkin11]

Anything that doesn't involve Drew Stubbs as the Reds' everyday CF has my full interest. It's ridiculous he can play at a pathetic level all year and keep his starting job. All because he's a former first-round pick. Turrible.

I think it's more because he's a fantastic defender, despite what the flawed defensive metrics say. If Stubbs was batting 8th playing everyday in CF, people wouldn't have a problem with him. See who Atlanta's everyday #8 hitter is.