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Thread: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

  1. #166
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Reds wanted to keep him at shortstop to improve his mental understanding of the overall game itself, an area they felt he needed to improve upon to be a good major leaguer, and they felt keeping him at shortstop would keep him engaged in the game mentally at all times, as opposed to standing out in the outfield. That was part of it--straight from an extremely top-level source.

    Also, as stated by Nemesis, Hamilton was right on the verge of taking a big step forward as a hitter (which he did) and they wanted to let that happen without clogging up his head worrying about learning a new defensive position.
    It's also not a move you make lightly or in a vacuum. Hamilton is a dynamite athlete and I'd be surprised if the opinion inside the organization is anything other than Hamilton could have been a successful SS had he stayed there. It might have taken extra time for him to get his defense sorted out. It might not have been his optimal position. Yet in sports you usually have confidence that an athlete like Hamilton will make the leap (certainly that's what the Reds are thinking with him in CF).

    So you probably don't rush into shifting a kid you fundamentally believe in. On top of that, the organizational picture at SS and CF affects the decision. It may have taken extra time to decide that Hamilton is going to be a better fit for the Reds at CF. In other words, they resisted making the shift until they were sure. Drew Stubbs and Zack Cozart's seasons might have played significant roles in this decision.
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  3. #167
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Anyone bothered by Hamilton's extremely high babip? Appears he has a high one at each level. I don't have any numbers on his line drive percentage (doug might)--he's a player at the extremes- maybe it doesn't matter....idk.

  4. #168
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Anyone bothered by Hamilton's extremely high babip? Appears he has a high one at each level. I don't have any numbers on his line drive percentage (doug might)--he's a player at the extremes- maybe it doesn't matter....idk.
    Just my off the cuff thoughts based on my somewhat limited understanding of BABIP, but it seems almost inherent that a player with Hamilton's speed would have a higher than normal BABIP-- almost every ball that Hamilton hits on the ground results in a bang-bang play at 1st. Obviously his BABIP will regress when he gets to the majors, but I don't really have any problem with it being where it is. Usually a high BABIP doesn't correlate to anything other than "luck;" here it would seem to me, without really looking at the numbers, that it correlates to Hamilton's speed.

    I guess you could even look at it as a positive, in that Hamilton isn't hitting too many flyballs, rather hitting line drives and ground balls which give him a much better chance at reaching 1st base. Interested to hear others' thoughts.

  5. #169
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    His BABIP is going to drop off some in the Majors. Fields are better, fielders are better and first basemen are better.

    He will still have a high BABIP because his speed will make a difference. But he has to cut down on the strikeouts from where they were in AA. Let's just assume a .330 BABIP is the baseline, with 3 home runs in 600 at bats, he is a .267 hitter. That isn't bad, but it isn't really good either. He needs to cut down the strikeouts.

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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't ....but at that time we didn't really apply the lessons of Voros Law. The application of this has helped divide wheat from chaff. Billy's numbers are really high, but i'm of the mind that doug's correct.

  7. #171
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't ....but at that time we didn't really apply the lessons of Voros Law. The application of this has helped divide wheat from chaff. Billy's numbers are really high, but i'm of the mind that doug's correct.
    How dare you say something remotely negative about a Reds prospect?! RedsZone is for Reds fans, not Reds realists.

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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't
    How is Billy any different?

    He hit like crap as an 18 year old in the GCL, hit well in the bandbox at Billings as a 19 year old (where even non-prospects hit well), got a lot of attention for racking up triple-digit steals at Dayton as a 20 year old (but didn't hit particularly well), and then busted out as a 21 year old this season at Bakersfield and Pensacola. His 2012 season was WAY better than anyone could have predicted.

    I believe in Hamilton, but I also recognize that a lot of things Doug has been saying about him (walk rate might not hold up, BABIP will drop as fields/defenders improve, K rate is an issue, etc.) are legitimate concerns. He might go back to being the guy he was in Dayton rather than moving forward as the guy we saw this year.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 11-11-2012 at 09:56 AM.

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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Steve: He might be slightly different in that his speed may help increase his babip -but i do think there will be a correction coming related to babip. What we should do -if we were real stats dudes (and you guys already know this) ...is run a little comp study with an emphasis on body type, handedness, speed to first base, and approach. I kind would think it might be good to throw out post age 35 stats as players get older and lose a step. Keep in mind, I'm eyeballing this, it's not a good study and may be missing a big part of what needs to be taken into account (LD%, K and BB%, ect...).

    Ichiro appears to be a good match: his babip up until age 35 looks to be in neighborhood of .360.

    Brett Butler .322.
    Willie Wilson .332.
    Juan P. .314.
    Willie McGhee .340.
    Mickey Rivers .315.
    Luis Polonia .323.
    Lance Johnson .306.

    Looks like to me that Doug's .330 babip is right in line with these fellows.
    I'm not sure if all those guys fit - just an fyi- they all had better babips earlier in their careers than later except for Butler. If i remember right, his approach might have been the most extreme as he really narrowed down what he was trying to do - go the other way and not go that way unless he got a good pitch to hit- he also appeared to bunt about .600 every year. I don't remember his approach being that extreme earlier in his career (maybe manny mota and vic davilillo worked with him, idk).

    One other aside: a lot of these guys ended up playing leftfield. Did their lack of overall strength keep them from being able to have enough arm strength to play centerfield? I realize that it's further along on the defensive spectrum, but it does make one wonder.

    One more aside of an aside: Stubbs babip was really about 30-35 points lower than his historical rate. Makes me think he's due for a slight upward correction.

    Stubbs Babips in the minors (and this was discussed ad nauseum at the time)...353 pretty high. He got a correction when he came to the majors.

    Doug -do you know the babip averages for a minor leaguer? I'm guessing the rate is higher at the lower levels.

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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Does anyone know Billy's LD % - Doug??

  11. #175
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    16%

  12. #176
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Steve: He might be slightly different in that his speed may help increase his babip -but i do think there will be a correction coming related to babip. What we should do -if we were real stats dudes (and you guys already know this) ...is run a little comp study with an emphasis on body type, handedness, speed to first base, and approach. I kind would think it might be good to throw out post age 35 stats as players get older and lose a step. Keep in mind, I'm eyeballing this, it's not a good study and may be missing a big part of what needs to be taken into account (LD%, K and BB%, ect...).

    Ichiro appears to be a good match: his babip up until age 35 looks to be in neighborhood of .360.

    Brett Butler .322.
    Willie Wilson .332.
    Juan P. .314.
    Willie McGhee .340.
    Mickey Rivers .315.
    Luis Polonia .323.
    Lance Johnson .306.

    Looks like to me that Doug's .330 babip is right in line with these fellows.
    I'm not sure if all those guys fit - just an fyi- they all had better babips earlier in their careers than later except for Butler. If i remember right, his approach might have been the most extreme as he really narrowed down what he was trying to do - go the other way and not go that way unless he got a good pitch to hit- he also appeared to bunt about .600 every year. I don't remember his approach being that extreme earlier in his career (maybe manny mota and vic davilillo worked with him, idk).

    One other aside: a lot of these guys ended up playing leftfield. Did their lack of overall strength keep them from being able to have enough arm strength to play centerfield? I realize that it's further along on the defensive spectrum, but it does make one wonder.

    One more aside of an aside: Stubbs babip was really about 30-35 points lower than his historical rate. Makes me think he's due for a slight upward correction.

    Stubbs Babips in the minors (and this was discussed ad nauseum at the time)...353 pretty high. He got a correction when he came to the majors.

    Doug -do you know the babip averages for a minor leaguer? I'm guessing the rate is higher at the lower levels.
    IMO, Willie Wilson is the absolute best case offensive scenario for Hamilton. If he comes close to that, he'll be a big success. If Hamilton can be Wilson to Votto's George Brett, should be in for a lot of good times in Cincy.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #177
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Brett Butler would be my ideal comp.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  14. #178
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Peoria won their division. They will play for the AFL championship Saturday afternoon at 3pm on MLB Network.

  15. #179
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Peoria won their division. They will play for the AFL championship Saturday afternoon at 3pm on MLB Network.
    Looks like Tim Crabbe will be the starting pitcher.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #180
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    Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

    Holy cow, nice start for Hamilton in the AFL Championship game. EASY standup triple to leadoff the game. Wow dude is fast. lol

    -Matt


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