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Thread: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    This offseason would be the same point in time at which Walt extended Cueto. What do you think? Same type deal as Cueto? Adjusted for salary increases maybe 4 year 30 MM with an option? Latos hasn't pitched well enough to be an upper echelon guy...which is good for the Reds come contract time.

    Would Dallas even let him sign one?

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    I'd hope Walt would at least open the discussion.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Id be ALL about a 4yr $30-40MM extension with a 5th yr option.

    -Matt

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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    This offseason would be the same point in time at which Walt extended Cueto. What do you think? Same type deal as Cueto? Adjusted for salary increases maybe 4 year 30 MM with an option? Latos hasn't pitched well enough to be an upper echelon guy...which is good for the Reds come contract time.

    Would Dallas even let him sign one?
    I would at least throw the idea by his agent as this helps cost control long term...

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    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    This offseason would be the same point in time at which Walt extended Cueto. What do you think? Same type deal as Cueto? Adjusted for salary increases maybe 4 year 30 MM with an option? Latos hasn't pitched well enough to be an upper echelon guy...which is good for the Reds come contract time.

    Would Dallas even let him sign one?
    I'd love it if they could get Latos for that. I'm not sure we should be that optimistic though. When Cueto got his extension in January of 2011 he had 32 wins in 92 career starts with a 4.27 era. Right now, Latos has 37 wins in 98 career starts with a 3.50 era. Latos has done a little more than what Cueto had done when he got extended. So, maybe up it to 4/$36M.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    The question is for his 3 years of arbitration...

    Is he a 4 MM 7 MM 10 MM guy (for the 3 respective years)

    Or a 6 MM 9 MM 12 MM guy? Or somewhere in between?

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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    The jump in Latos' home run rate this season is alarming. I definitely think he's the 2nd best starter, but I don't know if he's quite the guy we thought we were getting. It might be another year or two before we figure that out.

    I wonder if he could be extended for less as a result of that.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    The jump in Latos' home run rate this season is alarming. I definitely think he's the 2nd best starter, but I don't know if he's quite the guy we thought we were getting. It might be another year or two before we figure that out.

    I wonder if he could be extended for less as a result of that.
    You don't want to be insulting to Mat or his agent, but perhaps tactfully point out the difference to them in his numbers vis a vis Petco and GABP.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    The jump in Latos' home run rate this season is alarming. I definitely think he's the 2nd best starter, but I don't know if he's quite the guy we thought we were getting. It might be another year or two before we figure that out.

    I wonder if he could be extended for less as a result of that.
    It's not really that alarming. His rate of homers to fly balls was going to go up because of the difference in home ballparks. That was a given. It's probably not going to remain this high next season, though. Especially if he continues giving up fewer fly balls going forward as he's done thus far this season.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It's not really that alarming. His rate of homers to fly balls was going to go up because of the difference in home ballparks. That was a given. It's probably not going to remain this high next season, though. Especially if he continues giving up fewer fly balls going forward as he's done thus far this season.
    HR/9
    2010 - .78
    2011 - .74
    2012 - 1.28

    That's an enormous jump any way you look at it. Even if you look at xFIP, his numbers are up. He was in the "great" to "above average" category in San Diego the last 2 years. This year, he's barely "above average" and teetering on "average" performance. with regard to xFIP.

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Did you expect him to go from San Diego to Cincinnati and think his numbers would stay the same? His K/9 and BB/9 are pretty much in line with his career numbers.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    HR/9
    2010 - .78
    2011 - .74
    2012 - 1.28

    That's an enormous jump any way you look at it. Even if you look at xFIP, his numbers are up. He was in the "great" to "above average" category in San Diego the last 2 years. This year, he's barely "above average" and teetering on "average" performance. with regard to xFIP.
    Petco's park factor for homers is 0.86. GABP is 1.58. That's a 72% difference in homers.

    If you adjust last year's HR/9 to 1, you get 0.87. Now adjust that to 1.58, and you get 1.13 HR/9. His actual home runs per nine is 1.28. That's mostly in line with what it should be (0.87 + (0.87*1.58=1.37) / 2 = 1.13 HR/9).

    Edit: had the math off by a little bit, but the point is the same
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-27-2012 at 09:07 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Petco's park factor for homers is 0.86. GABP is 1.58. That's a 72% difference in homers.

    If you adjust last year's HR/9 to 1, you get 0.87. Now adjust that to 1.58, and you get 1.23 HR/9. His actual home runs per nine is 1.28. That's right in line with what it should be (0.87 + 1.58 / 2 = 1.23 HR/9)
    Well put.

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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Petco's park factor for homers is 0.86. GABP is 1.58. That's a 72% difference in homers.

    If you adjust last year's HR/9 to 1, you get 0.87. Now adjust that to 1.58, and you get 1.13 HR/9. His actual home runs per nine is 1.28. That's mostly in line with what it should be (0.87 + (0.87*1.58=1.37) / 2 = 1.13 HR/9).

    Edit: had the math off by a little bit, but the point is the same
    xFIP is up a noticeable amount.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is it time to extend Latos? (offseason)

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    xFIP is up a noticeable amount.
    The problem with that is xFIP, at least in this context, only assumes league average HR/FB rates (11% of fly balls). It doesn't take into account actual parks. So his xFIP would be the same regardless if he were pitching in San Diego or Cincinnati. Most of the difference in xFIP from last year is merely from a slightly lower strikeout rate. But there's no reason to believe that's anything of concern.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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