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Thread: Todd Frazier

  1. #61
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    While there are still no guarantees projecting what prospects will do in the majors projections have become more accurate in recent years. Maybe Frazier will surprise us and keep this up next year. I just wouldn't bet on it.
    What's the logic in tossing his most recent 468 at bats out the window and only projecting from his minor league numbers? This season is more statistically relevant than anything else in his career as far as projection goes. I don't think he's a .292 hitter going forward, but everything else seems pretty much in line with what I would've expected. He's also moving into those magical prime years, so you can't rule out a peak power season in the near future.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    What's the logic in tossing his most recent 468 at bats out the window and only projecting from his minor league numbers? This season is more statistically relevant than anything else in his career as far as projection goes. I don't think he's a .292 hitter going forward, but everything else seems pretty much in line with what I would've expected. He's also moving into those magical prime years, so you can't rule out a peak power season in the near future.
    A lot of people would have said the same of Drew Stubbs after 2010. I remember there being a thread about giving Stubbs a long term extension. I think Todd has had a outstanding year, I simply want to see him keep it up next year.

  4. #63
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    What's the logic in tossing his most recent 468 at bats out the window and only projecting from his minor league numbers? This season is more statistically relevant than anything else in his career as far as projection goes. I don't think he's a .292 hitter going forward, but everything else seems pretty much in line with what I would've expected. He's also moving into those magical prime years, so you can't rule out a peak power season in the near future.
    That's my point. I'm not expecting the average, or ops, to stay this high either. That said, I don't know what you mean by a 'peak power season' but 25 homers seems doable to me.

    Also, I wasn't tossing out his mlb ab's. But, they would mean more to me for projections if those mlb ab's were done at a younger age.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 09-03-2012 at 11:53 PM.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  5. #64
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    That's my point. I'm not expecting the average, or ops, to stay this high either. That said, I don't know what you mean by a 'peak power season' but 25 homers seems doable to me.

    Also, I wasn't tossing out his mlb ab's. But, they would mean more to me for projections if those mlb ab's were done at a younger age.
    We're probably not that far in what we expect from the Toddfather. I'd be pleasantly surprised if he threatened a .900 OPS again next season, but he still projects easily as an .800 OPS bat IMO. Why the qualms with his age though? You could obviously dream bigger if he were doing this at 23, but this season is still the best indicator of the skills he'll bring to the table going forward.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    A lot of people would have said the same of Drew Stubbs after 2010. I remember there being a thread about giving Stubbs a long term extension. I think Todd has had a outstanding year, I simply want to see him keep it up next year.
    Stubbs had major contact issues upon arriving though. His looming incompetence wasn't expected to this degree, but there were definitely red flags along the way.

  6. #65
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    A lot of people would have said the same of Drew Stubbs after 2010. I remember there being a thread about giving Stubbs a long term extension.
    In 2010, Stubbs didn't have anywhere near the year that Frazier is putting up for us now though. His line was.... .255 .329 .444 .773 OPS ... And that was actually pretty much in-line with his overall numbers in the minors too.

    Stubbs made it to the majors because #1 - we needed a CFer, needed to bring some sort of stability to that position, didn't have an immediate answer, and he was the next best thing, so they decided to give him a shot. That, and he was fast as lightning and played good defense. This organization felt that by giving him the opp they could somehow, someway, with that speed, mold him into a top of the lineup guy. They've tried to fit a square peg in a round hole because Stubbs does not possess the plate discipline (hitting eye), never has, never will. That's why he Ks so much. In fact, IMO, he looks lost. He's a blind squirrel who finds a nut (Hr, XBH) every once in awhile.

    IMO, and I think Baker is frustrated too, Stubb's days are numbered as soon as a suitable replacement can be found.

    I think Todd has had a outstanding year, I simply want to see him keep it up next year.
    I'm far more optimistic with Todd then I am Drew. Todd's having a heck of a year, and there is no denying the "pressure" is going to be on him to keep it up. And if he takes over 3B, which is a grueling position, it's gonna be tough. Also, being a rookie he's new to the league so pitchers don't know him quite that well yet either. He was a +.800 OPS guy in the minors, and I think that is an attainable, consistent goal he could put up while playing a solid 3B for us. We'll see.
    Last edited by GAC; 09-04-2012 at 04:55 AM.
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  7. #66
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    I think Frazier will settle in as a .260/.315/.460/.775 guy who hits Home Runs. He'll be a perfect bat to have in the 6 hole and wouldn't be a complete horror hitting 4th or 5th occassionally. If he can get that OBP up higher, he could hit higher in the order.

    I'm of the general opinion that rookies in their mid -to-late 20's have numbers that are a little higher than what we may see down the road as pitchers adjust. Younger rookies are more likely to improve IMO. I don't have any stats to back that up, just a general observation. Frazier seems to have some baseball smarts, so he may buck that pereceived trend and make adjustments as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #67
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Reds players under age 27 with a season with PA's 375-475

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    AGE <= 26
    AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    PLATE APPEARANCES BETWEEN 375 AND 475
    
    OPS                           YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AVG      OBA      SLG      AGE      PA     
    1    Kal Daniels              1987     .288    1.046     .758     .065     .090     .198       23      430   
    2    Bernie Carbo             1970     .257    1.004     .748     .043     .114     .143       22      467   
    3    Ed Bailey                1956     .188     .936     .748     .036     .054     .134       25      446   
    4    Austin Kearns            2002     .144     .907     .763     .049     .067     .077       22      435   
    5    Cuckoo Christensen       1926     .119     .864     .745     .063     .079     .040       26      385   
    6    Reggie Sanders           1992     .112     .819     .706     .011     .032     .081       24      438   
    7    Ernie Lombardi           1932     .102     .851     .749     .018     .034     .068       24      458   
    8    Ed Bailey                1957     .092     .840     .748    -.008     .045     .047       26      472   
    9    Greasy Neale             1917     .090     .743     .653     .037     .029     .061       25      420   
    10   Bret Boone               1994     .088     .858     .771     .046     .026     .062       25      424   
    11   Nick Esasky              1985     .081     .797     .715     .002     .004     .077       25      464   
    12   Dmitri Young             1999     .061     .856     .795     .025     .001     .060       25      409   
    13   Joe Adcock               1952     .058     .781     .724     .016    -.014     .071       24      403   
    14   Willie Greene            1998     .052     .816     .764     .001     .032     .020       26      417   
    15   Harlin Pool              1934     .052     .802     .751     .040     .027     .025       26      387   
    16   Hughie Critz             1924     .051     .800     .749     .032     .007     .044       23      443   
    17   Adam Dunn                2003     .047     .819     .771    -.053     .013     .034       23      469   
    18   Edwin Encarnacion        2006     .046     .831     .785     .004     .016     .031       23      463   
    19   Ray Lamanno              1942     .045     .729     .684     .008    -.004     .049       22      404   
    20   Reggie Sanders           1994     .041     .812     .771    -.012    -.010     .051       26      447   
    21   Ron Oester               1981     .037     .741     .704     .009     .015     .022       25      408   
    22   Larry McLean             1907     .035     .674     .639     .037    -.005     .040       25      391   
    23   Greasy Neale             1918     .035     .691     .656     .008     .005     .029       26      418   
    24   Rube Bressler            1921     .034     .793     .759     .008     .036    -.002       26      381   
    25   Ivy Wingo                1917     .034     .687     .653     .009    -.003     .037       26      432   
    26   Dave Collins             1979     .032     .765     .734     .049     .029     .002       26      429   
    27   Lee May                  1967     .031     .730     .700     .007    -.013     .043       24      472   
    28   Heine Groh               1913     .027     .729     .701     .012     .017     .011       23      458   
    29   Armando Marsans          1912     .025     .757     .732     .037     .003     .022       24      448   
    30   Ernie Lombardi           1934     .018     .769     .751     .017    -.007     .026       26      436   
    31   Austin Kearns            2005     .018     .785     .767    -.028    -.006     .025       25      448   
    32   Sam Crawford             1900     .017     .744     .726    -.027    -.034     .051       20      424   
    33   Ted Kluszewski           1948     .017     .758     .741     .005    -.036     .053       23      397   
    34   Tommy Harper             1963     .016     .712     .696     .006     .019    -.003       22      465   
    35   Tracy Jones              1987     .013     .771     .758     .021    -.005     .018       26      390   
    36   Mike McCormick           1941     .012     .723     .711     .021     .005     .008       24      413   
    37   Jay Bruce                2009     .012     .773     .761    -.043    -.036     .048       22      387   
    38   Dan Driessen             1973     .009     .731     .722     .038     .015    -.005       21      394   
    39   Johnny Edwards           1964     .009     .721     .712     .018     .010    -.001       26      468   
    40   Nick Esasky              1986     .002     .728     .726    -.031    -.007     .009       26      383   
    41   Jay Bruce                2008     .001     .767     .765    -.013    -.025     .026       21      452   
    42   Paul Householder         1983     .000     .722     .722    -.008     .003    -.003       24      427

  9. #68
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Sabo... is likely the 1st Reds steroid success
    I dunno, I'd give that award to Dibble.
    I can't prove Dibble did it, but he seemed to fit the profile.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #69
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    I think Todd's a hacker. A very good one. Susceptible to the hard breaking stuff and sometimes makes up his mind to swing before the delivery. Good bat control to get a piece of a pitch to stay alive, frustrating a pitcher into a mistake.

    He will even out around the .250-.260s like mth123 said. Good power though. Many times, his swing looks effortless but the ball goes a long way relative.

  11. #70
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Frazier will settle in as a .260/.315/.460/.775 guy who hits Home Runs. He'll be a perfect bat to have in the 6 hole and wouldn't be a complete horror hitting 4th or 5th occassionally. If he can get that OBP up higher, he could hit higher in the order.

    I'm of the general opinion that rookies in their mid -to-late 20's have numbers that are a little higher than what we may see down the road as pitchers adjust. Younger rookies are more likely to improve IMO. I don't have any stats to back that up, just a general observation. Frazier seems to have some baseball smarts, so he may buck that pereceived trend and make adjustments as well.
    He is a perfect 6 guy, and with this lineup for the next few years he will never have to hit in the 4 or 5 every day, maybe when some one is rested. Next year the lineup is set and he is the 6th hole hitter. Two years from now is a long time in baseball...

  12. #71
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    While there are still no guarantees projecting what prospects will do in the majors projections have become more accurate in recent years. Maybe Frazier will surprise us and keep this up next year. I just wouldn't bet on it.
    When you look at all players with significant MLB careers on average Milb numbers will "predict" MLB numbers. If you add all the MiLB players who do not have significant MLB careers, then MiLB numbers are not very accurate.

    One MLB season is also going to be very hit and miss at predicting career numbers. Most MLB players do not OPS 880+. I think most of us would have to get pretty good odds to bet Frazier can keep this up next year.

    His numbers this year are not enough to convince me that he is at least a .750 bat going forward, however his MiLB numbers don't scream there is no way he can OPS .800 in the majors. I am just going to hope for the best.

  13. #72
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by defender View Post
    When you look at all players with significant MLB careers on average Milb numbers will "predict" MLB numbers. If you add all the MiLB players who do not have significant MLB careers, then MiLB numbers are not very accurate.

    One MLB season is also going to be very hit and miss at predicting career numbers. Most MLB players do not OPS 880+. I think most of us would have to get pretty good odds to bet Frazier can keep this up next year.

    His numbers this year are not enough to convince me that he is at least a .750 bat going forward, however his MiLB numbers don't scream there is no way he can OPS .800 in the majors. I am just going to hope for the best.
    Would you say that scouting reports are more accurate now compared to 30-40 years ago or less accurate?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  14. #73
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by defender View Post
    When you look at all players with significant MLB careers on average Milb numbers will "predict" MLB numbers. If you add all the MiLB players who do not have significant MLB careers, then MiLB numbers are not very accurate.

    One MLB season is also going to be very hit and miss at predicting career numbers. Most MLB players do not OPS 880+. I think most of us would have to get pretty good odds to bet Frazier can keep this up next year.

    His numbers this year are not enough to convince me that he is at least a .750 bat going forward, however his MiLB numbers don't scream there is no way he can OPS .800 in the majors. I am just going to hope for the best.
    The general rule of thumb, for hitters, is that walk and strikeout rates generally carry over rather well from minors to majors (though both improve with age). But power numbers in the minors are often misleading, hence the old adage 'minor league doubles become major league home runs.' Overall, though, the numbers translate rather well if you assume added power over time with most players.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #74
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    3B Todd Frazier singled in the ninth to extend his streak of reaching base to 28 games. That tied Joey Votto for the club's longest streak this year.
    Frazier has been a revelation for us. I wouldn't be upset at all if they decided to run him in the outfield and shifted Bruce over to centre. With that said, Heisey has been heating up too -- I think we have a plethora of options right now and it's nothing to scoff at. With Joey coming back Frazier is a super utility and hopefully will still see a ton of at-bats.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  16. #75
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Todd Frazier

    Quote Originally Posted by smith288 View Post
    I think Todd's a hacker. A very good one. Susceptible to the hard breaking stuff and sometimes makes up his mind to swing before the delivery. Good bat control to get a piece of a pitch to stay alive, frustrating a pitcher into a mistake.

    He will even out around the .250-.260s like mth123 said. Good power though. Many times, his swing looks effortless but the ball goes a long way relative.
    This seems like a good assessment to me. One comp that comes to mind which might not be immediately obvious is Alfonso Soriano. Make bad ones and you're in trouble. Make good pitches and you've got a good chance to get him out. But sometimes, he'll that good pitch and 1-hand it in to the bleachers.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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