Is it possible he's improved? Sure, I'm not going to discount that entirely. But, I'm going to view 2,000+ PAs as more significant to future projection than barely a full season of MLB PAs. I'm always going to view an all-star turn skeptically from a guy who was good, but not great, in his minor league career.
24 Years and Counting...
Minor league stats help project a guy going forward, but so do 554 big league PA's. Just don't brush them aside...include them in your reasoning.
For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.
I don't know that Frazier's OBP or BA will remain this high going forward, but I've been convinced of his power since he started getting playing time last season. He seems to look very comfortable against LH and I've really been surprised at how well he's handled guys from the right side. I think he'll continue to slug going forward and take a hit in the BA area... Hopefully he'll make up for that with some walks and be an .800+ guy going forward. But I had no doubts coming into this season on his power... I felt pretty strongly that he had 25-30 HR power. The other stuff is a pleasant surprise.
Can't win with 'em
Can't win without 'em
I thnk Frazier is more than likely more like his AA stats. AAA was a bit misleading as it does seem to sap power (ie. Joey Votto). You bump up his AAA stats, and they look more like his AA stats. You regress his major leagues stats, and they look more or less the same.
He's a good hitter, and will be a good starter as long as he can show that he can adequately defend at 3rd or LF. He'll never be a great player though IMO.
CE isn't being dogmatic. Frazier is having the best season of his professional carreer (above rookie ball) as a major leager with little service time. CE is being a healthy skeptic based upon past experience.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
It's really hard to say.
Frasier does an excellent job of protecting the plate with two strikes. He has a nice 2 strike swing.
His power is legitimate.
I see him being around an 825-850 OPS bat next year (maybe even higher, but I want to temper my enthusiasm).
He and Cozart have been wonderful surprises this season.
Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Sure, Rolen would have to have a new deal, and it would have to be smaller. But I have not seen any indication that he wants to retire or that the Reds management will push him to do anything other than continue to play.