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Thread: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Four out of the last five games Heisey has been the starter, and he's rewarded the Reds by going 7-of-17, striking out only once. Is the job now his for the rest of the year as long as he stays afloat?

    I'm inclined to say yes.

    The Reds have made it clear they're not going to move Bruce to center, but they also haven't given any indication they're content with the utter lack of production from Stubbs in the past month. It seems to me the Reds are ready to see if Heisey can handle the job full-time. I imagine Stubbs will still get a spot start here or there, but I think Heisey is your starter the rest of the season... especially if he maintains a .750 OPS going forward.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Reading the tea leaves, I think Baker is frustrated with Stubbs' lack of improvement and looking for other options at this point. The extreme valleys are no longer worth the occasional long ball, supposed defense, and extra half-step on the basepaths. Baker perhaps sees the near 900 second-half OPS this season and the September/ October 931 OPS last season and figures he can live with the (supposed) poorer defense for the uptick in power, obp, and overall offense.

    I'm guessing Heisey's going to get a lot more time from here forward. If he catches fire (as he did last September, as he appears to be doing now), it could be the difference between simply playoff baseball and a World Series title.

    He's proven to be a league average or better bat and his defensive metrics show him to be somewhere from average to slightly above. I would have liked to have seen Baker make the move earlier, but late is better than never.

    Having said that, I'm perhaps biased. I hate Stubbs' play, for the most part. And I really like the way Heisey plays (though his lack of walks frustrate, especially when a pitcher can't seem to find a plate).
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 09-01-2012 at 03:59 AM.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    4th OF > 5th OF. Heisey over Stubbs for now with Stubbs playing against LHP and in late game defensive switches.

    Begs the question, would moving Bruce to CF once or twice a week be that big a drop defesively? I don't think he'd be that much a noticeable change from Heisey.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    According to every defensive metric I've seen, Heisey is around league average or better. Stubbs is about the same.

    The drop from Stubbs defensively = the drop from Heisey defensively
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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    According to every defensive metric I've seen, Heisey is around league average or better. Stubbs is about the same.

    The drop from Stubbs defensively = the drop from Heisey defensively
    I don't know if I believe the metrics around Stubbs' defense, but if I'm playing along, I could see how Heisey's aggressiveness and willingness to lay out for a ball could bridge the gap considering Drew's timidness around the wall and on balls falling in front of him.

    It might not be a necessary thing for a good defender, but off the top of my head, I can't recall even one time Drew has dived for a ball.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Stubbs doesn't play shallow enough to make consistently great OOZ plays, IMO. He has very good range due to his speed, he's below average near the wall, and he's not often willing to dive/ risk letting a ball get behind him.

    He's simply a passive player offensively and defensively, IMO.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    When you run as fast as Stubbs does it is better to run full speed through the spot where the ball is going to land than it is to dive for it. You have to slow down to dive. I know diving is all the rage these days because it gets you on the highlight reels on ESPN, but diving is not smart when you are running full speed. On top of that, most of the time when a guy dives he could have just run to the spot and made the catch anyway, but chose to use the more dramatic dive play instead. I would estimate 90% of dives are unnecessary. Some of them are just plain comical the way guys hold back then dive at the last moment to get a cheer out of the crowd and an out-of-zone play on their UZR.

    Diving helps infielders more than outfielders. Infielders are taking one or two steps before diving. They are not going full speed, so diving doesn't slow them down and is often the fastest way to stretch out for a ball.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-01-2012 at 07:01 AM.

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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Like Scrap said, I wish Heisey walked more. And had a higher baseball IQ. He does quite a few things that make you scratch your head. That being said, he's much more enjoyable to watch than Stubbs.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    According to every defensive metric I've seen, Heisey is around league average or better. Stubbs is about the same.

    The drop from Stubbs defensively = the drop from Heisey defensively
    Heisey has 480 innings logged in CF. That's worth around 60 AB's on the hitting side. Basically, UZR tells us next to nothing about Heisey's defense in CF. Way too small of a sample size to have any real meaning, or reflection of his true skill and talent there.

    Btw, UZR is the only defensive rating system that equates Heisey and Stubbs. Total Zone, Range Factor and Tango's Fan Rating all have Stubbs significantly better in CF than Heisey. Stubbs is above average in all of them, and Heisey is average or below average. Again, sample size is so small for Heisey that it doesn't mean much, but just getting tne facts out there.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Four out of the last five games Heisey has been the starter, and he's rewarded the Reds by going 7-of-17, striking out only once. Is the job now his for the rest of the year as long as he stays afloat?
    .
    Heisey hasn't started four of the last five in CF. Stubbs started every game v. Arizona in CF.

    Heisey got two starts in Arizona, but in RF and LF.

    Over the last 11 games, since the Philly series began on 8/20, Heisey has started in CF three times, on 8/20, on 8/26 and on 8/31.

    In that span he started in LF once, RF once, he pinch hit four times, he came in defensively in LF once, he DNP twice.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-01-2012 at 08:52 AM.

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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Heisey has 480 innings logged in CF. That's worth around 60 AB's on the hitting side. Basically, UZR tells us next to nothing about Heisey's defense in CF. Way too small of a sample size to have any real meaning, or reflection of his true skill and talent there.

    Btw, UZR is the only defensive rating system that equates Heisey and Stubbs. Total Zone, Range Factor and Tango's Fan Rating all have Stubbs significantly better in CF than Heisey. Stubbs is above average in all of them, and Heisey is average or below average. Again, sample size is so small for Heisey that it doesn't mean much, but just getting tne facts out there.
    On Baseball-Reference, Heisey grades out as slightly above average (13 runs, in fact, if extrapolated to 1,200 innings). Stubbs is 12 per those same 1,200 innings. Admittedly, he also grades out as below average (slightly) in range factor; then again, when compared to CF, so does Stubbs.

    You may scream sample size, and that's certainly a valid question as to Heisey's numbers. But there's really only one way to fix that, isn't there?

    I dismiss Tango's Fan Rating as nothing more than style points from eyes that cannot gauge accurately what's happening with the glove.
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    Bunn-O-matic max venable's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Heisey hasn't started four of the last five in CF. Stubbs started every game v. Arizona in CF.

    Heisey got two starts in Arizona, but in RF and LF.

    Heisey has played more lately but in various different positions in the outfield.
    Yep. Dusty has already gone on record saying that he's sticking with Stubbs.
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  14. #13
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by max venable View Post
    Yep. Dusty has already gone on record saying that he's sticking with Stubbs.
    Dusty has stopped short of saying he's sticking with Stubbs. He hasn't sold him down the river publicly, but that isn't the same as saying he's sticking with him. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a recent statement from Dusty saying Stubbs will continue to start.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Heisey is hot now so he may play more, but there is no indication Stubbs has lost his job. Dusty's comment in the Fay blog "He'll be back in there" suggests that Stubbs is simply getting some time to regroup.

    My guess is that Heisey will get a lot of playing time in September. He is hot at the plate. Reds will want to rest guys with a big lead. Chris will play all the outfield positions. I'd expect Ludwick to get some rest in September as well.

    But when Game 1 of the playoffs comes around, I expect Stubbs in CF. Hitting lower in the lineup with Votto back, Phillips at lead off, Cozart second, Stubbs seventh.

  16. #15
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    I'm betting a weekend off or so for Stubbs. His defense is too good to not have out there.


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