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Thread: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

  1. #91
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    I normally cringe when Dusty speaks but I agree with nearly everything he said in the article.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

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  3. #92
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    You could not have made this argument two weeks ago.
    Logan Buck, I made this argument two weeks ago. I made the same argument two months ago. I made the same argument two years ago.

    Heisey has been better than Stubbs pretty much their entire careers.

    Two weeks ago, Heisey was 20 OPS+ better than Stubbs. A month ago, Heisey was 10 OPS+ ahead of Stubbs. For their careers, Heisey's been 10-15 OPS+ points better.

    At this point in the season, Heisey has almost 30 points of wRC+ on Stubbs, and he grades out as an above average major league hitter. This despite his putrid BB rate. For his career, he's at 107.

    Stubbs, meanwhile, is at 95, which is below major league average. That 10% difference is huge.

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    No offense to you, but on no plane of reality is Chris Heisey in Drew Stubbs class on defense. I have begun to just dismiss the defensive metrics, as flawed.
    I find your reluctance to accept defensive metrics that challenge your own perceptions typical of many fans. It reminds me a great deal of the difficulty most fans had in accepting OPS instead of batting average a generation ago. Is UZR perfect? Hardly. As with OPS, however, it's much better than perceptions or the eye test.

    Something will come along later that will make UZR look like a dinosaur. For the time being, however, it's head and shoulders better than opinion.

    If you don't like UZR, BIS says Stubbs is almost exactly average. Heisey received the exact same grade.
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  4. #93
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    I don't think Heisey is the answer to anything going forward. But for this season, Heisey > Stubbs, and should get the majority of the PT.
    I have to agree.
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  5. #94
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    NM
    Last edited by oneupper; 09-12-2012 at 05:21 AM. Reason: old news
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  6. #95
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    I've watched the Reds play almost every game this season. I think that Stubbs is a much superior player to Heisey, defensively in CF. I don't think you would find many scouts or baseball people who would argue differently. It would be interesting to know who the Reds pitchers would rather have in CF, defensively, on a regular basis.
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  7. #96
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    I've watched the Reds play almost every game this season. I think that Stubbs is a much superior player to Heisey, defensively in CF. I don't think you would find many scouts or baseball people who would argue differently. It would be interesting to know who the Reds pitchers would rather have in CF, defensively, on a regular basis.
    Heisey is a 4th type OF. IMO he is a pure guess hitter, hacking early in the count and sits fastball in most of his at bats. He takes more pitches right down broadway for strike three more than I have ever seen. His defense often times leaves you wanting more. He is an adequate defensive CF and a better corner OF based upon his above average speed.

    IMO if Stubbs gets out of his massive slump he is a better option going forward in CF. I am all for playing the hot bat, but lets not assume Heisey is the second coming.

  8. #97
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Even if Heisey is average in CF, even a bit below average, the Reds are good enough on defense for it not to hurt the team. The way he is hitting he has to play over Stubbs.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  9. #98
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Maybe Stubbs could use a change of scenery, perhaps even AAA to bounce back. It's certainly not unheard of for a guy like him to bounce back. By "back" I mean just below his 2010 season.

  10. #99
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Heisey all the way at this point. The bat is much better, and defensively it's closer than received wisdom would say, IMO. Stubbs looks better out there, but he doesn't necessarily play better.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #100
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Heisey is a 4th type OF. IMO he is a pure guess hitter, hacking early in the count and sits fastball in most of his at bats. He takes more pitches right down broadway for strike three more than I have ever seen. His defense often times leaves you wanting more. He is an adequate defensive CF and a better corner OF based upon his above average speed.

    IMO if Stubbs gets out of his massive slump he is a better option going forward in CF. I am all for playing the hot bat, but lets not assume Heisey is the second coming.
    Honestly, who on this board really thinks Heisey is the second coming? Frankly, I don't think anyone is advocating he be the Reds' future centerfielder let alone the second coming.

    At most, I've seen people that believe he's a better player than Stubbs right now. That's really not a stretch considering his OPS is over 130 points higher and he's arguably as good a defender. All of the defensive metrics say he is, at very least, in the same ballpark.

    Whether he hacks at the first pitch, watches a strike three down the middle, or works a 10-pitch at-bat, his OPS right now for his career continues to stick around .770 with average defense. That makes him an average to above-average centerfielder. Right now, that's a definite upgrade from Stubbs.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #101
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Play the hot hand, and the matchups. When it is Heisey, substitute Stubbs late, defensively when possible. I agree with bucksfan2's observation on Heisey.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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  13. #102
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    I fear Stubbs may see worse before he sees better. According to the article quoted, he was asked to adjust his approach. Last night he didn't strike out, but hit three weak grounders and a pop-up.
    Many here have argued that he is what he is and if allowed to swing hard and try to run into one, he'll me more productive than if they try to convert him into a slap hitter. We'll see how this adjustment works.

    Dusty has decided that Stubbs is the guy and he'll get most of the playoff starts, IMO.
    Many of us don't agree (always thought Heisey was a better option), but it will be so.
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  14. #103
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Stubbs has created 6.1 more runs then Heisey on office this season, but he's had 163 more PA's to do it.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  15. #104
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Heisey is a better hitter than Stubbs, and his equal defensively. I've watched them for several years now and I see no difference in the defense between them. And the UZR backs that up.

    I still see Heisey as the 4th OFer in years to come, if not traded.
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  16. #105
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Heisey is, right now, exactly league average for 2012. (Offense only, as many posters don't believe in defensive metrics.) For his career, he's slightly better than league average in terms of both OPS+ (106) and wRC+ (107). Heisey's WAR is 1.6 this year.

    Drew Stubbs has a 67 OPS+. That's 2/3 of the offensive output from a league average player. Offensively, he's below replacement level by a fairly significant margin right now. For his career, Stubbs has an OPS+ of 88, with three straight years of dropping production. (In 2010, he garnered a 105 OPS+. Last season, he was able to put up an 86 OPS+.) In terms of wRC+, it's just as stark a difference between he and Heisey (and Stubbs now v. the Stubbs of three years ago). His wRC+ has decreased from 110 in 2010 to 94 last season to 76 this year. His WAR is 1.2 this year.

    Unless you believe the difference in defense and speed is over 25 runs, the choice is fairly clear.

    I understand the perception that Heisey is a fourth outfielder. He's never really played a full season as a starter. He's kind of a 'tweener that can play both CF and the corners. He's a hacker that seems to work better either as part of a platoon or as a part-timer. However, if you go by strictly numbers, Heisey actually grades out as a better than league average player, likely to put up around a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR over the course of a full season of at-bats in CF.

    Sure, his approach is tough to swallow sometimes, but it's not like he's totally craptastic. When he's been in the lineup, over the course of a full season, he's produced.
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