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Thread: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

  1. #16
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Heisey is hot now so he may play more, but there is no indication Stubbs has lost his job. Dusty's comment in the Fay blog "He'll be back in there" suggests that Stubbs is simply getting some time to regroup.

    My guess is that Heisey will get a lot of playing time in September. He is hot at the plate. Reds will want to rest guys with a big lead. Chris will play all the outfield positions. I'd expect Ludwick to get some rest in September as well.

    But when Game 1 of the playoffs comes around, I expect Stubbs in CF. Hitting lower in the lineup with Votto back, Phillips at lead off, Cozart second, Stubbs seventh.
    Time to regroup may well be an indefinite timetable with no guarantee of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Given the way Dusty operates in the media, I wouldn't expect him to come out and say if Stubbs were going to lose his job. It's possible this is temporary, but we're not going to know based on Dusty's comments.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Time to regroup may well be an indefinite timetable with no guarantee of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Given the way Dusty operates in the media, I wouldn't expect him to come out and say if Stubbs were going to lose his job. It's possible this is temporary, but we're not going to know based on Dusty's comments.
    "He'll be back in there" was Dusty's quote in the Fay blog.

    It's possible Dusty meant as a pinch runner, or a defensive replacement, or for another team, or in a different profession. But most likely, Dusty meant that Drew will be back playing most of the time in CF.

    As others have said, the Reds value his defense. I'd expect Stubbs as the primary CFer until the team acquires a new player, maybe this off-season.

  4. #18
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Time to regroup may well be an indefinite timetable with no guarantee of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Given the way Dusty operates in the media, I wouldn't expect him to come out and say if Stubbs were going to lose his job. It's possible this is temporary, but we're not going to know based on Dusty's comments.
    Exactly. Although I had noticed a certain similarity in the way Dusty was talking about Stubbs over the past week and the way in which he talked about Soft J near the end of his regular playing time. Dusty doesn't speak directly about it usually, but when he starts saying things like "He wants it more than anyone" and "It's hard for all of us to watch" and "It tears your heart out," I think that's his way of signaling the end is near. As if on cue, Stubbs got his long office meeting this weekend. I don't think if this was a temporary thing it would have been such a long meeting. I look for Heisey and Stubbs to basically swap places now.
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  5. #19
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    There's a difference between "Stubbs has problems playing at the wall" and "Stubbs is a conservative defender" -- I think the latter is absolutely true. Frankly, with a quality pitching staff, I'd rather he didn't take chances that turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Give your pitcher a chance to get out of the inning.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    I'm fine with the way Stubbs plays defense. I agree that diving is overrated at best and harmful in many cases. His speed turns a number doubles into singles and even outs and he hardly ever turns singles into doubles or triples by diving.

    However, I'm absolutely not fine with what Stubbs has been bringing to the plate. It doesn't work for a #2 hitter and frankly doesn't work anywhere. I expect Heisey will get some more playing time short term, but I'd be surprised if Drew doesn't get some time in CF batting #7 once Votto comes back to see if he can find his comfort zone before the playoffs. Clearly the Reds think they are better defensively with Stubbs in CF or they would have made this switch much sooner.

  7. #21
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    "He'll be back in there" was Dusty's quote in the Fay blog.

    It's possible Dusty meant as a pinch runner, or a defensive replacement, or for another team, or in a different profession. But most likely, Dusty meant that Drew will be back playing most of the time in CF.

    As others have said, the Reds value his defense. I'd expect Stubbs as the primary CFer until the team acquires a new player, maybe this off-season.
    Stubbs will still get PT was all Dusty was saying. I really feel going forward Stubbs will get less time. Dusty held a closed-door, 30 minute meeting with Stubbs. To me, that screams "We're making some changes, keep your head up." Of course, it's all speculation. But Dusty is trying to handle this with respect for Stubbs, while doing what's best for the team. Which is playing Stubbs less.

  8. #22
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    He's simply a passive player offensively and defensively, IMO.
    That's a very interesting way to put it.
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  9. #23
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Stubbs is the better and smarter CF... I can agree with him being "passive" in CF, but I'd rather have that than turn bloops into extra base hits like Heisey did this week. Diving for the balls isn't the issue, diving for them in those situations and when you don't have a chance (a la Ryan Freel) isn't very smart. Stubbs arm is better and gets the ball to the correct cut off man with a good throw nearly 100% of the time. Play Heisey till his bat cools off, but they need Stubbs D in CF especially in bigger parks.
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  10. #24
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I don't know if I believe the metrics around Stubbs' defense, but if I'm playing along, I could see how Heisey's aggressiveness and willingness to lay out for a ball could bridge the gap considering Drew's timidness around the wall and on balls falling in front of him.

    It might not be a necessary thing for a good defender, but off the top of my head, I can't recall even one time Drew has dived for a ball.
    Dive? Heck, on those balls in front of him, I don't remember him ever even catching one on the run or while he was moving. He runs to a spot and if he can't beat the ball there and catch it while standing still, he pulls up and plays it on the hop. Its why so many hits fall in front of him. I think UZR is pretty shaky but if Stubbs UZR is unimpressive, those plays he doesn't make in front of him are why IMO.

    I don't really want him to dive. but he doesn't need to pull up when the ball is still 15 feet in the air and two steps in front of him.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-01-2012 at 01:30 PM.
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  11. #25
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Dusty's comment in the Fay blog "He'll be back in there" suggests that Stubbs is simply getting some time to regroup.
    As in back in there today. Against a RHP. Is there something more to this or does Heisey need "a rest" after playing so well of late.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Heisey is simply the lesser of two evils right now, but he's still no more than a reserve OFer pressed into a regular role.

  13. #27
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Heisey is simply the lesser of two evils right now, but he's still no more than a reserve OFer pressed into a regular role.
    I'm still not convinced of that. He has a career .768 OPS. The average CF is .730. I don't see any reason he couldn't be an average starter out there on an everyday basis.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. #28
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Stubbs back in the starting lineup, batting 2nd for tonights game.
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    Re: Is Heisey now the incumbent?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'm still not convinced of that. He has a career .768 OPS. The average CF is .730. I don't see any reason he couldn't be an average starter out there on an everyday basis.
    He's a career 103 OPS+ guy (95 OPS+ and 100 wRC+ this season) with a 105 wRC+ who plays CF (again, according to objective metrics) at a higher than league average level.

    Hmmm...

    Better than league average bat
    Better than league average defense in CF
    Better than league average speed

    I realize he's not Matt Kemp out there, but he's a damn sight better than anything Drew Stubbs has offered over the past two years.
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  16. #30
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Stubbs starting tonight, batting second. The more things change...
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