Ryan Braun won't win the NL MVP this year.
Ryan Braun won't win the NL MVP this year.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5
2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4
2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2
I can't believe we have a 25 year old RFer who is 2nd in the league in HRs and RBIs and in the top 10 on OPS and we spent the majority of the year arguing about his worth as a player, and some people still are doubting him.
If Bruce continues to hit and finishes near the top in HRs/RBIs and his OPS is in the .900s he will absolutely be a serious contender for MVP when you consider how the Reds played sans Votto. Especially when you consider he is has a .960 OPS post ASG which was right around the time Votto died.
People think he's a guy that can do exceptional things. He's been very good but he hasn't been exceptional. There's no harm in hoping for that and being frustrated if it doesn't happen. That doesn't mean they don't appreciate what he is doing if the 'potential' never materializes.
I think he's a very good player. I don't think he's an exceptional player. Again, exceptional is a strong term. That is reserved for truly elite players. "Not typical," says the definition. I don't find an .820 OPS atypical. It's found among dozens of players every season. There are 47 qualified players above .820 this season, which is Bruce's career average. Do I think there are at least 47-50 exceptional players in the league? Nope.
I asked you a simple question the other day, one in which you didn't answer. Are the voters for the MVP the same as the Cy Young? If you don't see the importance in me asking that original question, the conversation isn't worth having.
This particular occurrence with Felix was very recent. Concluding the guard hasn't changed based on 1 additional year of awards isn't as conclusive as you're claiming it to be. It will take additional time for things to play out conclusively. Sabermetrics weren't as popular even 5 years ago as they are now.
I didn't catch Cameron's chat, and he may be right. However, if Braun doesn't win, we'll never know for certain if it was because he played for a bad team or the cloud above him from his failed test.
Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 09-06-2012 at 03:13 AM.
Giving extra credit for HRs doesn't really make sense. If you're looking at OPS, you'are already counting HRs. No need to do so again.
If we want to go old school and add RBI to the conversation, his 91 leaves him behind Ryan Braun, Chase Headley and Matt Holliday -- and just ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Adam LaRoche.
This doesn't touch defense. Bruce may be a talented defender, but the stats we do have suggest he hasn't had a great year. And even if he's been a good defensive RF, he's still just a RF compared to guys who are putting up comparable offensive production from CF, C, 3B, 2B.
Jay Bruce is having a solid year. But he's not having an exceptional one, largely because his low average is keeping his OBP in the mediocre range and he plays an "easy" defensive position. If we use criteria that takes us beyond the traditionally sexy HR/RBI and maybe some narrative about carrying the team in Votto's absense (but go make that case to Ludwick, Frazier, Cueto, Latos and Chapman), the list of guys who should be in the MVP conversation is 20+ guys long and Bruce is toward the back of that list.
I'm not complaining about that, but we shouldn't confuse solid/above average with exceptional.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.
If Bruce gets and keeps his OPS above .900 and leads the league in RBI's, he could win the MVP. Especially since his reputation is of an elite defensive player. Which likely trumps the "new" fielding stats which suggest otherwise.
The Reds are an elite team in the NL this season, even though their elite player went down. If Bruce continues to do what he has been doing ( an big "if" I agree), the most likely competition is McClutch, but while he's playing for another "feel good" team, he and his team have fallen off the map again.
BTW, I'm not suggesting that Bruce is the actual MVP of the league. But I'm looking at what voters have tended to prefer in the past, and a rejuneated Bruce fits that bill to a T.
(1) On a contender, if not playoff team-check in spades.
(2) High on the list of MVP stats, such as RBI's- check in spades ( I'm assuming here Bruce leads the league or is close).
(3) Carried his team down the stretch-check in spades (again my assumption was a good September).
(4) Intangibles. Bruce is considered an elite defensive GG type player and will have carried a team void of the best hitter in the game into the playoffs-check in spades.
I don't see anyone else with that type of story to tell in the NL.
BTW, my current personal choice is Molina of the Cards. IMO, he's been the most valuable player to any of the current contenders.
Last edited by PuffyPig; 09-06-2012 at 10:05 AM.
I started this thread as hopeful/wishful thinking. Like: wouldn't it be great if JB gets super hot and finishes strong and ends up with a shot at MVP. The way he's going now, wow, if he continues, absolutely he will have a shot.
Bottom line: somebody's got to win it and if JB finishes like he's going now, show me who should get it over him.
Top candidates: McCutchen, Holliday, Posey, Braun. None of those have significantly distinguished themselves above JB--especially if he keeps doing what he's doing.
For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.
It's like asking to compare a congressional race to a presidential race despite having totally different candidates, different age/term requirements, etc.