Drew Stubbs: What if?

[Wonderful Monds]

Drew's been a hot topic around here lately, but I dont want to go down the same road most of the conversations about him have.

What I'm interested in, is do you think, on another team that was getting him to use a different approach, could Drew have been so much more?

Drew flashed a lot of potential as recent as 2010, and many of us, myself included, thought Drew was on the road to becoming a Mike Cameron type for us for quite some time. That has clearly not been the case. A few of us have speculated that since Drew has hit near the top of the lineup, he has changed his approach for the worse. It's been argued that he should be swinging for the fences as much as possible, but the expectation for him to be a table setter got him derailed.

So, amateur scouts, what say you? Drew has the pedigree. As recent as the end of July he was on an insane tear. If Drew was say, a Toronto Blue Jay and they told him to go all Jose Bautista and try to pull everything over the LF wall, could he have been a different player?

[camisadelgolf]

Drew will always strike out a lot, and he will always have a low batting average. As he gets older, I could see his power developing a bit more, but if he moves to a different team, I think it would need to be a homer-friendly ballpark to see him eclipse his previous power numbers. He's a valuable player, but the most I could ever expect out of him is to be an average center fielder. He'd be one of the best backup center fielders in my book, but if the Reds can find an upgrade in the off-season that makes sense, I think they should do it.

[George Foster]

The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.

Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.

Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."

I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.

After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.

[AtomicDumpling]

The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.

Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.

Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."

I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.

After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.

I think the bolded part is the exact reason why his stats have gotten worse the last couple years. Stubbs actually has been trying to make more contact and use his speed and that approach has hurt his game tremendously. That approach is never going to work for him and he should in fact do the exact opposite. Trying to make more contact has only resulted in weaker contact, including on the balls that he would have hit harder using his old approach. The weaker contact is leading to more infield singles but fewer line drives, doubles, triples and home runs. To get hits on a regular basis you need to make hard contact -- not just contact.

Here is part of a post I made in another thread.

You can make a strong case that his attempts to reduce the strikeouts are the cause of his regression the last couple years. His power is way down, possibly due to attempting to make more contact and hit the ball where it is pitched. If I were him I would go with the Jose Bautista approach (not 'roids) and try to yank everything down the left field line. He hits way too many fly balls to centerfield that could be homers down the line. He is always going to strike out a lot, so he should at least try to maximize his power numbers. He is never going to be a high-contact slap hitter. He is too tall, his arms are too long and his swing is too slow for that. He should swing hard, aim for where the fences are closest and run like a gazelle until they throw him out.

And as Tom Servo mentioned, Stubbs' awful pitch-recognition skills are another reason why he will never be a good contact hitter. The Reds need to quit trying to force him to be a speedy contact hitter because he has tried that and failed. Stubbs needs to work the count, take more walks, swing HARD and pull the ball down the line. Stubbs' body, swing and vision compel him to be a power hitter. Instead of trying to make weak contact and leg out infield hits Stubbs needs to use that speed to turn hard-hit singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

[Superdude]

I can't imagine anyone in this organization advocating the Bautista approach, but it's become pretty clear that Stubbs is a year or so away from becoming bench fodder if something doesn't change. I remember articles from his Dayton days talking about the coaches telling him to choke up on the bat, so the "slap it into play" mentality has been ingrained in him since day one. Would be interesting to go back and see his career unfold in a universe where he's told to rip it Bautista style.

[redssince75]

His BABIP its around fifty points lower this year than his career average. It might not be luck but that is too extreme to blame totally on reduced skill.

Actually it seems to dovetail nicely with this explanation, which has nothing to do with luck.

Trying to make more contact has only resulted in weaker contact, including on the balls that he would have hit harder using his old approach. The weaker contact is leading to more infield singles but fewer line drives, doubles, triples and home runs. To get hits on a regular basis you need to make hard contact -- not just contact.

[RedsManRick]

I think the bolded part is the exact reason why his stats have gotten worse the last couple years. Stubbs actually has been trying to make more contact and use his speed and that approach has hurt his game tremendously. That approach is never going to work for him and he should in fact do the exact opposite. Trying to make more contact has only resulted in weaker contact, including on the balls that he would have hit harder using his old approach. The weaker contact is leading to more infield singles but fewer line drives, doubles, triples and home runs. To get hits on a regular basis you need to make hard contact -- not just contact.

Here is part of a post I made in another thread.

And as Tom Servo mentioned, Stubbs' awful pitch-recognition skills are another reason why he will never be a good contact hitter. The Reds need to quit trying to force him to be a speedy contact hitter because he has tried that and failed. Stubbs needs to work the count, take more walks, swing HARD and pull the ball down the line. Stubbs' body, swing and vision compel him to be a power hitter. Instead of trying to make weak contact and leg out infield hits Stubbs needs to use that speed to turn hard-hit singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

Exactly. I agree that player's should play to their strengths. But guess what? Contact is Stubbs biggest weakness, by far. He is below replacement as a contact hitter. Sure, he could make better use of his speed if he made more contact, but just like muscling up for power results in less contact, shortening up for contact results in less power. Trying to go beyond your ability results in worse performance, not better.

Stubbs had a very good year in 2010, when he was taking the approach he came up with. Since then, the Reds have pushed for him to make better use of his speed. At the same time, his strikeouts went up and his power went down. His GB/FB ratio went from 1.09 to 1.42 to 1.49. Huh, I wonder what happened to his power.

We need to stop treating strikeouts like they're a moral failing and accept them as one of the outcomes that comes with the set of outcomes produced by a player's skill set and approach. What matters is not the amount of a specific outcome, but the whole suite of outcomes he produces. Yes, balls in play would be better than strikeouts. But homers and extra base hits are better than infield singles and stolen bases. That weak grounder to short that he beats out may not feel like a failure the way a strikeout does, but if knew that his contact oriented approach just cost him a homer on that swing, you'd feel differently. And we need to recognize that telling poor contact hitters to change their approach so that they can make more contact is about as effective as telling Juan Pierre or Jeff Keppinger to muscle up and hit some homers.

Let Stubbs focus on making hard contact when he does connect and stop worrying about how to maximize the number of infield singles.

[Brutus]

Exactly. I agree that player's should play to their strengths. But guess what? Contact is Stubbs biggest weakness, by far. He is below replacement as a contact hitter. Sure, he could make better use of his speed if he made more contact, but just like muscling up for power results in less contact, shortening up for contact results in less power. Trying to go beyond your ability results in worse performance, not better.

Stubbs had a very good year in 2010, when he was taking the approach he came up with. Since then, the Reds have pushed for him to make better use of his speed. At the same time, his strikeouts went up and his power went down. His GB/FB ratio went from 1.09 to 1.42 to 1.49. Huh, I wonder what happened to his power.

We need to stop treating strikeouts like they're a moral failing and accept them as one of the outcomes that comes with the set of outcomes produced by a player's skill set and approach. What matters is not the amount of a specific outcome, but the whole suite of outcomes he produces. Yes, balls in play would be better than strikeouts. But homers and extra base hits are better than infield singles and stolen bases. That weak grounder to short that he beats out may not feel like a failure the way a strikeout does, but if knew that his contact oriented approach just cost him a homer on that swing, you'd feel differently. And we need to recognize that telling poor contact hitters to change their approach so that they can make more contact is about as effective as telling Juan Pierre or Jeff Keppinger to muscle up and hit some homers.

Let Stubbs focus on making hard contact when he does connect and stop worrying about how to maximize the number of infield singles.

What you're saying defies statistical studies that suggest on base percentage is more important than slugging percentage, Rick. If he shortens up his swing, sure, he'll lose power. But if that means more times making contact and consequently a better OBP, that equals better, not worse, performance. Further, it doesn't always mean less power if you're selective about it. Joey Votto often shortens up his swing. But not always. He knows when to shorten up and go the other way and when he can afford to swing for the fence.

Stubbs' career ISO is .150. We need to stop acting like he's even giving the Reds a ton of power. He's not. He's not even cracked a career .400 slugging percentage. Guys like Adam Dunn can somewhat get away with the strikeouts because he's hitting 40 homers. Guys like Drew Stubbs cannot.

If Stubbs were OPS'ing .800, you'd have a point. But he's not so there's no justification for doing what he's doing.

[AtomicDumpling]

What you're saying defies statistical studies that suggest on base percentage is more important than slugging percentage, Rick. If he shortens up his swing, sure, he'll lose power. But if that means more times making contact and consequently a better OBP, that equals better, not worse, performance. Further, it doesn't always mean less power if you're selective about it. Joey Votto often shortens up his swing. But not always. He knows when to shorten up and go the other way and when he can afford to swing for the fence.

Stubbs' career ISO is .150. We need to stop acting like he's even giving the Reds a ton of power. He's not. He's not even cracked a career .400 slugging percentage. Guys like Adam Dunn can somewhat get away with the strikeouts because he's hitting 40 homers. Guys like Drew Stubbs cannot.

If Stubbs were OPS'ing .800, you'd have a point. But he's not so there's no justification for doing what he's doing.

OBP is more important than SLG. You are absolutely right about that. But that doesn't change the fact that Stubbs' efforts to increase his contact rate have not increased his OBP. In fact his OBP has declined. And his SLG has plummeted. Stubbs had .443 SLG for his first two years in 2009 and 2010 combined. He has a .360 SLG for 2011 and 2012 combined. That is a huge, huge drop in a key statistical measure. Clearly his new contact-oriented approach has killed his productivity.

I think the point you are missing is that Stubbs is making weaker contact than he did before he changed his approach. This more frequent but weaker contact has resulted in a lower OBP because he is not hitting the ball hard enough to get a hit.

Making more contact leads to a higher OBP in theory, but in order to make more contact you have to change your swing and/or your approach at the plate. Making those changes is going to affect all of your at-bats, not just the ones where you would normally strike out. To make more contact hitters shorten their swing. Shortening your swing leads to more contact (which is good) but also leads to weaker contact (which is bad). Weaker contact leads to fewer hits. So you have two opposite forces interacting. More contact = higher OBP. Weaker contact = lower OBP. Do they offset? Which one wins? In Stubbs' case clearly the weaker contact has prevailed and has resulted in a lower OBP and a plummeting SLG.

Merely making contact is not good enough. You have to hit the ball hard, not just make contact.

Stubbs has made small gains in his contact rate, but his OBP has actually fallen. He is making more contact but getting on base less often. There are three reasons for that:

1. First, that increased contact has come mostly on weakly hit balls. Weakly hit balls are not likely to become hits, (not to mention that it is nearly impossible to get an extra base hit on a weakly hit ball).

2. Secondly, the max-contact approach has caused weaker contact on balls that he would have hit hard with his old approach, which means that some sharply hit balls that used to get through for hits are now hit more weakly and end up getting fielded and he makes an out where he would have had a hit before.

3. Thirdly, the increased contact rate has reduced his walk rate because he can't walk if he hits the ball, which offsets any gains to his OBP from making more contact.

Clearly Stubbs' altered approach has hurt his game. He needs to do something else. With his old approach he was an above average hitter in 2009 and 2010. He should go back to that approach. Or maybe he should go balls to the wall as a power hitter strikeouts be damned.

[RedsManRick]

What you're saying defies statistical studies that suggest on base percentage is more important than slugging percentage, Rick. If he shortens up his swing, sure, he'll lose power. But if that means more times making contact and consequently a better OBP, that equals better, not worse, performance. Further, it doesn't always mean less power if you're selective about it. Joey Votto often shortens up his swing. But not always. He knows when to shorten up and go the other way and when he can afford to swing for the fence.

Sure, on a point for point basis, OBP is more valuable than slugging by nearly 2 to 1. If Stubbs could trade 1 point of slugging for 1 point of OBP, that would be a great trade, I'd agree. If it was 2 points of slugging for 1 point of OBP, he'd coming out about even. But what if it's 3, 4 or 5 points of slugging for a a point of OBP? The trade doesn't make sense then.

But that's sort of beside the point, because the reality is that Stubbs OBP isn't going up. He's not trading slugging for OBP; he's losing both. He's getting on base less AND slugging less. He's not actually putting the ball in play more. But he is getting fewer less powerful hits when he does put the ball in play. His walk rate has dipped a bit too. He's hitting more grounders (which should produce a higher BABIP) and yet his BABIP is going down. Why is that?

Maybe it's just dumb luck/ random variation. I don't see people making that argument -- though they probably should. Maybe his skills have simply regressed -- but it would pretty weird for an incredibly athletic player in his prime to have his skills dry up on him -- he's not losing power because of a loss of strength or reaction times. Maybe pitchers are attacking him differently -- but he's seeing pretty much the same type of pitches he always has.

There are two things I know: Drew Stubbs has been trying to prioritize contact. And Drew Stubbs' performance has regressed. Those could just be spurious -- happening at the same time but not related. But given how we saw it happen with Dunn and what I can see in the data, I'm inclined to think otherwise.

[GAC]

The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.

Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.

Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."

I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.

After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.

Very good post. Couldn't have said it better. Stubbs will be 28 yrs old in a few weeks. There are no "what ifs?" left with him IMO. If The Reds had a better option he'd be G-O-N-E.

The only thing his speed does for him is that he gets back to the bench faster then any of the other players after producing another out with the bat. I've watched him a lot this year at the plate and it simply is mind boggling watching him put himself in the hole 0-2 with the bat on his shoulder. Good pitches too. He has, IMO, a terrible batting eye and no plate discipline. Advantage pitcher because he's now in a defensive position just trying to protect the plate and hang in there when the pitcher ain't going to give him nothing to hit. Doesn't have to either because Stubbs will swing at something, and the vast amount of time it results in a K.

Almost a 1/3 of his A/Bs this season (147) are batting behind in the count. And the numbers are.... .163 BA .169 OB% .197 SLG% .366 OPs ... and 147 Ks.

He's not going to improve on this. He is what he is, and it's unacceptable.

And as far as playing CF?.... thank God he is fast! But IMO he doesn't see/track FBs well, takes bad routes, but is able to "overcome" it with his speed.

Where's Chris Denorfia when we need him?

[dfs]

Where's Chris Denorfia when we need him?

Yeah.

I don't have the patience to look up the splits, but I suspect Stubbs is behind in the count far more often than a regular hitter.

[Tom Servo]

As has been pointed out many times, I think he just doesn't have any pitch recognition skills at all. He seems to just be guessing up there, almost randomly deciding when and when not to swing. And when he does swing, he's not very good at making contact.

I'd be fine with keeping him as an extra outfielder, but I think Heisey is actually better in that role. I'd like to see the Reds get a CF in the offseason and move on from Stubbs.

[redsmetz]

I do think Atomic Dumpling has hit on the head and I said this same thing to my daughter when she was in town last weekend. Even though Stubbs said earlier this season (or was it last) that he didn't want to sacrifice his power just to get himself on base more (I think this was around the question of bunting more - a horrible idea for someone who may well be the worst bunter in the history of the game), he clearly is failing at his game precisely for the reasons AD has said.

[Vottomatic]

He plays in a hitter's park. And he's regressing.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him out of baseball in 3 years. He'll be the next Willy Taveras.