"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Fangraphs says the average swing percentage outside the zone is 30%. So Drew swings much less frequently than average outside the zone. Good thing.
Fangraphs also says the average swing percentage in the zone is 65%. So Drew swings a bit less frequently than average in the zone. A slight negative.
These numbers are quite good. They show a hitter who is fairly patient, but more so on bad pitches. Just looking at these swing stats, you'd see a patient hitter who sees the difference between good pitches and bad.
Then you get to the actual contact rates and the problems become more apparent. The contact stats are poor, but even those stats aren't THAT bad.
It's the classic case of a guy who strikes out too much, and rises or falls by how he compensates when he DOES hit the ball. In Stubbs' case, not well enough.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-20-2012 at 03:58 PM.
But to your point, I think the ratio is important as well. Stubbs has the 17th highest Zone to Out of Zone swing rate in baseball.
Does Stubbs watch a lot of good pitches in the zone? Maybe. But that comes with the territory of being a patient hitter overall. The list of guys at the of that list is fascinating.
Notably, there's a lot of power on that list. I have no idea what to make of it, but generally speaking I think it's fair to say that Stubbs approach to when he swings is not his problem. It's what happens when he swings. You can be on this list and be a high contact guy like Callaspo or Choo. Or you can be a low contact guy like Dunn, Uggla or Austin Jackson. There are many ways to be successful at the plate. But swinging and missing a lot while not doing a lot of damage when you do connect is not among them.Code:Name Z:O Swing% 1 Alberto Callaspo 3.05 39.2% 2 Dexter Fowler 2.92 42.6% 3 Dan Uggla 2.89 43.0% 4 Rickie Weeks 2.87 40.4% 5 Josh Willingham 2.83 40.5% 6 Carlos Santana 2.80 39.4% 7 Adam Dunn 2.76 40.8% 8 Shin-Soo Choo 2.75 42.6% 9 David Wright 2.70 42.5% 10 Austin Jackson 2.70 42.3% 11 Michael Brantley 2.69 40.5% 12 Mark Reynolds 2.68 43.4% 13 Nick Swisher 2.67 42.2% 14 Jay Bruce 2.65 47.3% 15 Andrew McCutchen 2.65 46.8% 16 Edwin Encarnacion 2.61 41.9% 17 Drew Stubbs 2.61 41.2% 18 Michael Bourn 2.59 41.4% 19 Coco Crisp 2.58 42.5% 20 Ian Kinsler 2.58 43.6%
Stubbs either needs to do more damage when he connects or he needs to connect much more often. I'm among those who don't think the latter is really possible.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-20-2012 at 06:04 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.