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Thread: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Votto)

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    So Leake came into today with an xFIP of 3.66.

    Without bashing the metric, can any one offer up a reason for his poor results?

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    I think its safe to say that the Phillies "see the ball" well with Leake on the mound. They're hitting him so hard, makes me wonder if they don't know what's coming, considering they are offensively challenged, even with the big boys back. That or its just flukey bad matchup, like Arroyo and the Blue Jays. Regardless, they should consider skipping him if his turn comes up against this crew in the future.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So Leake came into today with an xFIP of 3.66.

    Without bashing the metric, can any one offer up a reason for his poor results?
    My head hurts with stats. Let's see of the other pitchers get lit up today...
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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    The Reds will only need four starters on the postseason roster. No matter the series (LDS, LCS, WS), a four man rotation will guarantee at least four days' rest for all starters.

    So the question for Leake becomes: is he one of the four best starters on this team?

    If that answer is no, then I honestly don't see a spot for him on a postseason roster. Leake's only value would be during a long extra inning game where he could go extended innings and actually be able to hit for himself. I don't think those types of games happen often enough to justify a roster spot for him.
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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    It just figures that even when they're hit by injuries and all the Phillies still find guys off the scrap heap like Frandsen and Kratz and they look like all-stars.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    At least Joey ensured in the first inning that we wouldn't get no-hit by Halladay again.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Well, maybe the Mets can salvage something good out of today and beat StL......please?!?

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    This should be a rocking chair game for Halladay at this point.
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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Quote Originally Posted by CarolinaRedleg View Post
    Well, maybe the Mets can salvage something good out of today and beat StL......please?!?
    They get started in about 15 minutes.
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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So Leake came into today with an xFIP of 3.66.

    Without bashing the metric, can any one offer up a reason for his poor results?

    Without bashing the metric (and I wouldn't be the one to do so), the only explanation is bad luck.

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So Leake came into today with an xFIP of 3.66.

    Without bashing the metric, can any one offer up a reason for his poor results?
    I can try, though I'm probably not the one who is best suited to tackle this one.

    Leake's actual ERA is much higher than his xFIP mostly because he has a HR/FB rate of over 16%. I believe league average is around 10%. Leake is sporting a career percentage of 14.4%, some of which can be attributed to GABP, but certainly not all of it. Seems that when guys lift balls against Leake, they lift them pretty darn good.

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Without bashing the metric (and I wouldn't be the one to do so), the only explanation is bad luck.
    No way. The last reason for Mike Leake's season is bad luck.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I think its safe to say that the Phillies "see the ball" well with Leake on the mound.
    It's probably safer to say that the Phillies success against Leake is just small sample size variation.

    It's hard enough to understand that a particular batter "just sees Leake's pitches well", but to extend that to a whole team seems improbable.

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Gregorious robs Pierre after being robbed by Pierre.

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    Re: 9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Vot

    Leake needs to turn a corner at some point, but he's got age and talent on his side. If he can start throwing what's not expected, like Cueto and Arroyo, I think he'll be fine.


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