One of my favorite math exercises:
Reds: 79-52 31g remaining
Cards: 71-58 33g remaining
Pitt: 69-60 33g remaining
If Reds go 15-16(.484)
Cards would have to go 23-10(.692) to tie
Pitt would have to go 25-8(.756) to tie
If Reds go 17-14(.548)
Cards would have to go 25-8(.758) to tie
Pitt would have to go 27-6(.818) to tie
If Reds go 19-12(.613)
Cards would have to go 27-6(.818) to tie
Pitt would have to go 29-4(.879) to tie
...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.
I love seeing this kind of stuff.
Granted, it is not all tied up, but the Reds are quite close. As the game has showed us many times in the past, anything can happen...anything. So, I am not ready for playoff tickets to be printed yet...but even should the Reds fall apart and not clinch the division, a wildcard is close to a sure thing (though I would rather not see a one game playoff for my team).
Of course, in the end and once the post season begins, that record means nothing. I am just hoping to not witness another hitless playoff game.
This helps keep me sane when they drop a couple of games lol
...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.
RZ sure loves this kind of stuff and I don't know why. All those numbers tell me is that it is still possible that we could blow it. The Cards could very well play .692 ball for a month and I think the Reds woud be well served to expect it
edit: Just last year, the Cards played .724 ball from Aug 28-end of the regular season
Last edited by Sea Ray; 08-29-2012 at 11:10 AM.
I would put a more negative "worst case scenario" up there.
If Reds go 10-21 (.323)
Cards would have to go 18-15 (.545) to tie
Pitt would have to go 20-13 (.606) to tie
When the disaster situation puts us at 89 wins, that's a good sign. Sure, we haven't clinched yet, but things are looking awfully good. Pittsburgh has to go on a very good run to have any chance at all. And even if we fall apart, St. Louis would still have to put up the same kind of winning percentage they have to date.
Or put differently, unless the Cards play over their heads the rest of the way (or up to their run differential, if you prefer) -- and/or the Pirates play way over their heads -- nothing the Reds do can result in losing the division.
Have I sufficiently jinxed us?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
It's possible, but is it likely? That is all I see being demonstrated.Originally Posted by Sea Ray
BTW, I think what you just showed is why people look at it this way, to show what a 7 game lead with a month left looks like for the contenders. You are doing the same thing, just looking at it as "someone could still get blistering hot and catch the Reds." I think the most valid point is that the Reds have themselves in a good position so that a hot team might STILL not be able to catch them. I also like the fact that the Reds have fewer games to play with the lead--in the clubhouse with a couple of games ahead of folks and a healthy lead. Of course, who can forget the 1951 Giants catching the Dodgers on the last day of the season after being a gazillion games out, or the Reds meltdown in 1960 something. Yes, these things happen. I might get in an accident on the way home and never be on RZ again too.
Finally, looking at things from your perspective must mean you have lots of insurance on yourself to cover "anything that might happen?"
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
If the thinking is that it'd take something like what happened 60 yrs ago to catch us, I'd feel pretty good but my point is "crazy" things do happen and they happened just last year. The truth is we need to continue to win because the Cardinals sure will. Sept is the easiest month to play .700 ball because half the teams play like the D-Backs. Simply put they don't care.
Anyone catch the end of the Angels-Bosox game last night? That showed a game which matched a team that cared vs a team that didn't. The Red Sox, playing with a one run lead in the 9th, hit the first Angel batter on a ball that nicked a toe on his back foot. The hitter made no attempt whatsoever to move his foot. Valentine did not so much as even come out to argue. It sure looked like he'd lost his energy to care
Yes, they happened last year. What about the last time before that? It never happened. Ever. So regardless of whether it was 60 years ago or last year, it doesn't matter.
And if half the teams play like the Dbacks and that makes it easy to play .700 ball, then wouldn't it suggest we would play well too? You my friend, worry way too much. The Reds would have to play like the 2003 Detroit Tigers over the last month of the year while the Cardinals playing as good as they have all year just to tie us for the division.
It says to me that Boston stinks this year and has been dumping talent. Sure that happens, but Doug's point is valid--expecting historic runs or collapses would make them normal. Or if you don't like that way of putting it, how about the exception doesn't prove the rule.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
My purpose for the OP was just to revel in the current situation as a Reds fan. Not counting the chickens yet, but just having a little fun. Cause remember what Crash Davis said, baseball is supposed to be fun!
...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.
We all need to remember that. After the Reds lost the first game to the Cards, I put a real critical comment on facebook as I was disgusted by that game, but this darn team is having an excellent year, with a great record, some very good (career year?) performances and even the best teams lose some games.
There's no harm in just sitting back and looking at the big picture, though I do need to remind myself of that at times.
I'm not worried. I'm comforted by a 7 game lead but I'm with Dusty in that they can't take it easy and think that "we'd have to play like the 2003 Detroit Tigers over the last month of the year while the Cardinals playing as good as they have all year just to tie us for the division". That's not a good attitude.
What do you mean it's never happened? You're usually more on top of your facts than that. It happened to the Bosox last year, blowing a 9 game lead on Sept 4th. The 2007 NY Mets blew a 7 game lead on Sept 12th. Similar meltdowns happened to the 2009 Detroit Tigers and the 1978 Boston Red Sox. It's happened plenty of times in the past 60 yrs.
What difference does Doug's attitude matter?
Are Reds players really reading Doug's posts and thinking "well since we have this wrapped up we can bring out the recliners for the rest of the season"?
The Reds have all but guaranteed the playoffs this year. That is a fact based assessment.
Nobody's expecting a collapse. Historically speaking your chances of winning a game in which you lead going into the 9th is 90% or so, but do you feel like we've got it made when we take a 3-2 lead into the 9th like we did on Monday? I sure don't and judging by Dusty's body language he doesn't either
Doug's attitude has nothing to do with the Reds if that's what you're asking. I'm just interested in setting the facts straight
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