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Thread: Limping into the playoffs

  1. #16
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Well, I posted this out of general concern about the offense.

    And people don't want to hear it, but these headscratching lineups are a concern too.

    In the postseason, feel free to dredge this thread back up and bash me. Sure, if they do well, I'll play the fool. But it's not the reason I posted it.
    Won't dredge it up, I'ved said my piece.

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  3. #17
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Guys, guys, guys......

    Don't you see, Vottomatic can't lose on this one.

    On the 40 percent chance or so that the Reds lose the first round, he can say "I knew it".

    And if the Reds win, he will get to whoop it up with the rest of us.
    This is like the Rosetta Stone for Redszone, well done.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  4. #18
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Just double-checking, but I don't think any team has ever ended the regular season 162-0.

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Here's a bunch of loosely linked statements that could be better formed in to a coherent argument if I were more lucid:

    - The Reds have won 60% of their games, 2nd best in baseball.
    - Teams that lose 40% of their games will have stretches where they lose more games than they win.
    - The Reds have done this scoring the 8th most R/G and allowing the 2nd least R/G in the NL
    - When teams lose, it's because either their offense doesn't' score enough runs or their pitchers & defense give up too many -- or both
    - Streaks are things that happen in retrospect but which are not predictive
    - Joey Votto has been out of the lineup for nearly 1/3 of the season and is now back
    - JJ Hoover and Jonathan Broxton were not in the bullpen for most of the year and are both pitching very well

    No team is perfect. The Reds offense could be better. But the team is very good. And of all the research that has been done regarding playoff success, there have been few if any findings that suggest a certain kind of very good team does particularly well. The most recent study that did, Nate Silver's Secret Sauce suggests that there are 3 characteristics: a high strikeout staff (Reds 2nd among playoff teams), a good closer (Chapman) and a good defense (Reds are middle of the pack this year).

    In other words: Don't Worry. Be Happy.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Here's a bunch of loosely linked statements that could be better formed in to a coherent argument if I were more lucid:

    - The Reds have won 60% of their games, 2nd best in baseball.
    - Teams that lose 40% of their games will have stretches where they lose more games than they win.
    - The Reds have done this scoring the 8th most R/G and allowing the 2nd least R/G in the NL
    - When teams lose, it's because either their offense doesn't' score enough runs or their pitchers & defense give up too many -- or both
    - Streaks are things that happen in retrospect but which are not predictive
    - Joey Votto has been out of the lineup for nearly 1/3 of the season and is now back
    - JJ Hoover and Jonathan Broxton were not in the bullpen for most of the year and are both pitching very well

    No team is perfect. The Reds offense could be better. But the team is very good. And of all the research that has been done regarding playoff success, there have been few if any findings that suggest a certain kind of very good team does particularly well. The most recent study that did, Nate Silver's Secret Sauce suggests that there are 3 characteristics: a high strikeout staff (Reds 2nd among playoff teams), a good closer (Chapman) and a good defense (Reds are middle of the pack this year).

    In other words: Don't Worry. Be Happy.
    Well, it's more of a what have you done lately situation. The season as a whole has been fantastic. I'm happy with the wins. But when you get to the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 100+ games or 89 to get there. It's how you're playing when you get there.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  7. #21
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    But when you get to the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you won 100+ games or 89 to get there. It's how you're playing when you get there.
    If that's the case, then since it's three weeks until the playoffs, isn't how they're playing right now irrelevant?
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #22
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post

    And people don't want to hear it, but these headscratching lineups are a concern too.

    Based on the lineups that Baker has been sending out since Votto came back, I would expect this lineup if the playoffs started today.

    Phillips
    Heisey
    Votto
    Ludwick
    Bruce
    Rolen/Frazier
    Cozart
    Hannigan
    Pitcher

    I'd be surpised if many here would spend much time scratching their heads over that lineup.

  9. #23
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    If that's the case, then since it's three weeks until the playoffs, isn't how they're playing right now irrelevant?
    Boom!!!!

  10. #24
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    In 1990 it REALLY seemed like they were going on fumes down the stretch, much worse than this. I remember that the Dodgers got to within about three and a half games in September after coming in here and taking the first two games of a three game series. All it it took was one big hit from Bill Doran in the last game to win a tight ballgame, and that was basically the end of it... even though the Reds offense never really seemed to get going again until game three of the NLCS.

    I am honestly not concerned about how they are playing right now one bit. I am concerned about the flaws that consistently plague this lineup, even when they are clicking... lack of production in front of and behind Votto, etc... But, this stretch of low run games is nothing out of the ordinary for any mlb franchise.

  11. #25
    Reds Slacker '07 RedsMan3203's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    The steroid era is over.... Get used to these type of games/stretches...
    You think you got what it takes to play a real fantasy game? Join me at Jockstocks. You can play Baseball, Basketball, Football, Golf, Nascar and even Hockey!

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  12. #26
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    17 wins in 28 tries. .607 winning percentage. Not bad. We are going to be OK.
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
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  13. #27
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Me like this thread best


  14. #28
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    If the Reds are limping, then what the hell are the Cardinals doing?

  15. #29
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    Alright, alright.

    You've all convinced me. I overreacted. I'll find the "I was wrong about....." thread and go post my sins.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  16. #30
    2013 W.S. Champions Nathan's Avatar
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    Re: Limping into the playoffs

    "It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."

    I'm not a man of many words. Read my posts, and you'll see what I mean.

    Some people are Optimists (They see the glass 1/2 full).
    Others are Pessimists (They see the glass 1/2 empty).
    Me, I'm a Realist. 1/2 empty IS 1/2 full.


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