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Thread: Mat Latos and the first round...

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    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Mat Latos and the first round...

    If the opponent is going to be the Giants, and it is certainly starting to look like it could be, I know without looking at the stats that Mat Latos not only hates the Giants, but has a particularly sparkling resume against that team in his young career... including one impressive victory against them as a Red this year.

    Only one pitcher will have the chance to go twice in the first round of the playoffs. Latos is a hoss of a man and has shown absolutely no sign of wearing down in his most recent starts late into the 2012 season. Fatigue at this point does not appear to be an issue with him. With Cueto's recent struggles, Latos appears to not only be one of the strongest men on the staff, but possibly one of the strongest starting pitchers in baseball at this late point of the season. In a season where Ryan Vogelsong, AJ Burnett, Chad Billingsley and CC Sabbathia have faded down the stretch, it can be argued that Latos is one pitcher who has not only maintained his performance, but has actually gotten better.

    Long story short, I would start Latos against Cain in the first game, Homer against Baumgarner in the second and hold Johnny back for game three. That would give Latos two starts against the Giants and line Cueto up to open the NLCS against whoever that may be... hopefully rested and ready to dominate for a couple of weeks the way he did mid-season.

    As far as I am concerned, that is our best shot.

    So, after all the hand-wringing and buyer's remorse regarding the Latos trade in April and May, this guy may be a catalyst for the Reds in the first round, catapulting them deeper into October. I am more sure it is going to be the Giants than any other team with 16 ballgames to go, and there is no pitcher on the staff that I would rather run out against Giants in any game than Mat Latos. Two starts are only better.
    Last edited by Phhhl; 09-16-2012 at 12:58 AM.

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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    I can see an argument for letting Mat go first. I personally wouldn't but I can see why one might.

    But if that were to happen, Cueto absolutely has to go 2nd. He has been our best pitcher for years now. Yes he is having a rough stretch. But it happens. Look at the bigger picture as far as he goes.

    For the record, I don't see anyway Arroyo does not start Game 3.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Here is what Latos has done his last 9 starts, including an awful game against the Cardinals.

    ip 62.1
    w 4
    L 1
    K 55
    era 2.61
    whip 1.08

    Right now, this is our best starting pitcher. I agree that Arroyo should probably start game two instead of Homer. But, I would still go with Mat to open the postseason against the Giants and Cueto to pitch game three at GABP against San Francisco. Having Bailey to go long relief in any of the first five games of the NLDS is a nice asset to have.

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    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Given what we have seen out of Cueto recently, no problem at all going with Latos. Especially considering what offensive struggles this team has. If we don't heat up before the playoffs start then it may not matter who we throw.
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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    You guys know Dusty. Cueto will start game one and Latos game 2. Just the way it is. Just like EV two years against the Phils.
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    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    You guys know Dusty. Cueto will start game one and Latos game 2. Just the way it is. Just like EV two years against the Phils.
    yeah, I know.

    Dusty is not a "what have you done for me lately" kind of guy.
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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    You guys know Dusty. Cueto will start game one and Latos game 2. Just the way it is. Just like EV two years against the Phils.
    Or maybe because Dusty is rational enough to not ignore 2 full seasons of data in favor of a couple bad starts?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Or maybe because Dusty is rational enough to not ignore 2 full seasons of data in favor of a couple bad starts?
    Are 2 full years of data a better indicator than the last 6 weeks of data? I don't care what someone did 2 years ago unless they can repeat that performance again when it counts. I think how they have been pitching lately might be a better indicator. He has lost his last 3 starts.

    If Cueto doesn't pitch any better in his remaining starts than he has in his last 3 the there is no way he should start game one. However if he is given some extra rest and his last game he looks really sharp then sure go ahead and start him. I would put him on a short leash though, but that should be true of all the pitchers with the pen being as good as it is.
    Last edited by Jefferson24; 09-16-2012 at 02:52 AM.
    We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

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    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    I agree with letting Latos start game one. However I think Bronson gets the nod over Homer and since the first 2 games are at AT&T Dusty should let Bronson start game 2. That way Cueto can start back in Cincy. The big ballpark factor could help Bronson. I think he deserves a start in the playoffs because of how consistent hes been this year and the Giants offense isnt much to write home about esp. with no Melky. I mean they're still ok but not great.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    I'm for Latos, Arroyo, Cueto in that order. If they aren't burned up by being used in an earlier game, I'd try to go with waves of guys in game 4 with Bailey, Cingrani, Leake, etc. all going through a couple of innings to get to the late inning guys (unless Bailey is cruising, then I'd leave him in).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    I'm for Latos, Arroyo, Cueto in that order. If they aren't burned up by being used in an earlier game, I'd try to go with waves of guys in game 4 with Bailey, Cingrani, Leake, etc. all going through a couple of innings to get to the late inning guys (unless Bailey is cruising, then I'd leave him in).
    Sounds like a good plan. Agree with Phhh's premise that Latos is throwing a lot better than Cueto right now and that this should guide how they set up the rotation for the first round.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferson24 View Post
    Are 2 full years of data a better indicator than the last 6 weeks of data?
    Except you aren't looking at 6 weeks of data for Cueto. You are basing it on his last 3 starts.

    The choice will be made towards the end of the season when a larger sample size of data is available.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Except you aren't looking at 6 weeks of data for Cueto. You are basing it on his last 3 starts.

    The choice will be made towards the end of the season when a larger sample size of data is available.
    Don't need a larger sample size IMO. Latos is the Red's best pitcher and this is why they traded for him. Arroyo is much better off in a forgiving place like SF. Cueto yields the least HR and should get the start at home.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    It's common for teams to not start their number one starter in game one of a playoff series. There are many good reasons to switch it up, like who pitches better at home/road, giving everyone proper rest, matchups, etc.

    However, I actually want Cueto pitching game one. Latos has better stuff, but is still kind of a knucklehead. I'm not sure I want him dealing with the hoopla of game one of a playoff series, no matter the location or team. I also don't start Bailey or Leake unless I have to.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Mat Latos and the first round...

    I'm not one for coddling players, but I do wonder if holding Cueto back to the third start would take a mental toll on him. The Reds are going to have the division locked up early enough that there will be no excuse for holding him back that long from a standpoint of rest (i.e., they can plan ahead in that sense). I can see the argument for sending Latos first, but I don't think you can put Cueto any further back than second. After being the team's #1 starter for as long as he has been, to send him third in the first round of the playoffs seems like a slap in the face for him and, more to the point, not deserved yet. Also, of course, looking ahead, I think you do want to get him out there for as many starts as you can.

    I just thank god we have a bullpen with some depth.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.


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