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Thread: AL mvp....

  1. #166
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Jeff Passan on the award: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degr...vp-season.html

    Basically he says it should be Trout, without question, but it will be Cabrera.

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  3. #167
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    I would vote for Trout.

    But how many times in the past 20 years has the wrong guy won the MVP?

    And the year people get the most inflammed about the "wrong" guy winning is gonna be the year they award it to the Triple Crown winner?

    I know how great Trout has been, but still, it is just funny to me the outrage over it going to a Triple Crown winner (spare the lecture on the TC I am aware).

    Meanwhile the best player in the NL isn't going to win the MVP, but it is kinda quiet on that front.

  4. #168
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Nate Silver
    @fivethirtyeight

    Mike Trout this year: .321/.395/.557. Joe DiMaggio, career: .325/.398/.579. Mike Trout steals this year: 48. DiMaggio, career: 30.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  5. #169
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Nate Silver
    @fivethirtyeight

    Mike Trout this year: .321/.395/.557. Joe DiMaggio, career: .325/.398/.579. Mike Trout steals this year: 48. DiMaggio, career: 30.
    Dimaggio won three MVPs. Every one was in a year the Yankees won the pennant.
    Cabrera .318/.394/.560 Career.
    Last edited by oneupper; 10-02-2012 at 08:16 AM.
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  6. #170
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Dimaggio won three MVPs. Every one was in a year the Yankees won the pennant.
    Cabrera .318/.394/.560 Career.
    Since the onset of the MVP award as selected by the baseball writers in 1931, the only times a player won the triple crown and did not win the MVP award were seasons in which his team failed to make the post season: Chuck Klein in 1933, Lou Gehrig in 1934 and Ted Williams in 1942 and 1947.
    Joe DiMaggio probably didn't deserve the MVP award he received in 1947 over Teddy Ballgame but it has long amazed me that DiMaggio didn't receivee the MVP in 1937, his second season. The MVP went to Detroit's Charlie Gehringer. Gehringer did lead the AL in batting average with .371 compared to DiMaggio's .346, and his OBP of .458 led DiMagio's .412 (Lou Gehrig led the AL in OBP). However DiMaggio had a huge edge over Gehringer in most other offensive categories, with 151 runs scored to 133, 46 HR to 14, and a .673 slugging percentage to .520, leading the AL in those three categories, along with 167 RBI to Gehringer's 96. I can't imagine that Gehringer had any greater value in the field than DiMaggio either. As for their teams, the 1937 Yankees won the pennant by 13 games over the Tigers. Yet Gehringer was given the award.
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  7. #171
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    Since the onset of the MVP award as selected by the baseball writers in 1931, the only times a player won the triple crown and did not win the MVP award were seasons in which his team failed to make the post season: Chuck Klein in 1933, Lou Gehrig in 1934 and Ted Williams in 1942 and 1947.
    Joe DiMaggio probably didn't deserve the MVP award he received in 1947 over Teddy Ballgame but it has long amazed me that DiMaggio didn't receivee the MVP in 1937, his second season. The MVP went to Detroit's Charlie Gehringer. Gehringer did lead the AL in batting average with .371 compared to DiMaggio's .346, and his OBP of .458 led DiMagio's .412 (Lou Gehrig led the AL in OBP). However DiMaggio had a huge edge over Gehringer in most other offensive categories, with 151 runs scored to 133, 46 HR to 14, and a .673 slugging percentage to .520, leading the AL in those three categories, along with 167 RBI to Gehringer's 96. I can't imagine that Gehringer had any greater value in the field than DiMaggio either. As for their teams, the 1937 Yankees won the pennant by 13 games over the Tigers. Yet Gehringer was given the award.
    Yeah, a headscratcher. Gehrig and Dimaggio split the "Yankee pennant winner" vote and Gehringer won. Much like 1987 when Ozzie and Jack Clark split the NL Champ Cardinal vote, allowing Andre Dawson of the last place Cubs to win.

    Another factor that I think will play this year will be that Cabrera is "due". He's been a top 5 vote getter four or five times and voters will believe its time to reward him. (Like what happens with the Oscars sometimes).
    Trout will get the ROY and GG and has a whole career to look forward to.
    (Not saying I agree with all this...but that's how things are).
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  8. #172
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Yeah, a headscratcher. Gehrig and Dimaggio split the "Yankee pennant winner" vote and Gehringer won. Much like 1987 when Ozzie and Jack Clark split the NL Champ Cardinal vote, allowing Andre Dawson of the last place Cubs to win.

    Another factor that I think will play this year will be that Cabrera is "due". He's been a top 5 vote getter four or five times and voters will believe its time to reward him. (Like what happens with the Oscars sometimes).
    Trout will get the ROY and GG and has a whole career to look forward to.
    (Not saying I agree with all this...but that's how things are).
    Good points. Ironically, if Cabrera already had a couple of MVP trophies on his mantle with seasons similar to this year, Trout would probably have a better chance at getting the award this year, as the writers might decide that Cabrera had already been honored and it was time to give it to the New Kid In Town.
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  9. #173
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    Re: AL mvp....

    FWIW this would be the first time that a Triple Crown Winner did not lead his league (players, not pitchers anyway) in WAR.

    I've cut and pasted part of an article from Joe Posnanski:


    1967: Yaz won Triple Crown. Yaz led with 12.3 WAR (Frank Robinson was second at 7.3).
    1966: Frank Robinson won Triple Crown -- Robinson led with 7.3 WAR (Tony Oliva, 6.0)
    1956: Mickey Mantle won Triple Crown -- Mantle led with 11.0 WAR (Al Kaline 6.4)
    1947: Ted Wiliams won Triple Crown -- Williams led with 9.6 WAR (Lou Boudreau 7.2)
    1942: Ted Williams won Triple Crown -- Williams led with 10.2 WAR (Joe Gordon 7.
    1937: Joe Medwick won Triple Crown -- Ducky led with 8.1 WAR (Dick Bartell 6.4)
    1934: Lou Gehrig won Triple Crown -- Iron Horse led with 10.1 WAR (Jimmie Foxx 8.6)
    1933: Jimmie Foxx won Triple Crown -- Foxx led with 9.0 WAR (Joe Cronin 7.1)
    1933: Chuck Klein won Triple Crown -- Klein led with 7.3 WAR (Arky Vaughan 6.7)
    1925: Rogers Hornsby won Triple Crown -- Hornsby led with 10.1 WAR (Kiki Cuyler 6.6)
    1922: Rogers Hornsby won Triple Crown -- Hornsby led with 10.0 WAR (Dave Bancroft 6.0)
    1909: Ty Cobb won Triple Crown -- Cobb led with 9.5 WAR (Eddie Collins 9.4)
    1901: Nap Lajoie won Triple Crown -- Lajoie led with 8.3 WAR (Jimmy Collins 6.6)

    What I find interesting is that notwithstanding that WAR is relatively new in stats, it certainly doesn't undervalue the type of stats that go into winning a triple crown. Also, looking at the list of TC winners, there were alot of complete balllayers on that list. Cabrera is an exception to that list.

  10. #174
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    FWIW this would be the first time that a Triple Crown Winner did not lead his league (players, not pitchers anyway) in WAR.

    I've cut and pasted part of an article from Joe Posnanski:

    What I find interesting is that notwithstanding that WAR is relatively new in stats, it certainly doesn't undervalue the type of stats that go into winning a triple crown.
    Well, if you are going to hit for a high average and a ton of power, you are probably going to put up a ton of WAR.

  11. #175
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, if you are going to hit for a high average and a ton of power, you are probably going to put up a ton of WAR.
    We also weren't measuring defense and base-running the way we are now. Considering that Trout is getting 2 wins of value from those, that's worth noting.

    The whole irony of this, in my opinion, is that its the statheads arguing for the holistic assessment of value that considers all the ways a player helps his team win ballgames while the triple crown crowd wants to equate the MVP with performance in just 3 statistical categories, two of which are highly correlated and only one of which necessarily implies the player was an elite run producer.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #176
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Offensively Cabrera and Trout are a wash. You might have a preference for one or the other, but they're awfully close no matter which way you lean. Normally I lean toward the guy with the most well-rounded game. Trout's a superhuman CF with unbelievable wheels. Cabrera can't match that. I thought Carlos Beltran got absolutely robbed back in 2006 when the voters overlooked his defensive and baserunning superiority in favor of Ryan Howard's HR and RBI totals.

    Yet there is one major mitigating factor for Cabrera. He shifted left on the defensive spectrum, allowing the Tigers to bring in Prince Fielder's bat. Detroit was awful at 3B last year. It got a .617 OPS and negative WAR from the position. Cabrera versatility, and he's been a serviceable 3B, allowed the Tigers to eliminate the biggest hole in their lineup and add an impact bat (.940 OPS and 4.4 WAR). Great as Trout is (and he is spectacular), Cabrera's 3B shift, IMO, tips the value scale in his favor and has played a bigger role in his team's success than Trout's defense has in his.

    I also agree with those who suspect voters might lean toward Cabrera on a career achievement basis (call it the Paul Newman "Color of Money" Theory). I thought Cabrera deserved the award last season. He's becoming a bit of a modern Eddie Murray. Mind you, it's not a good reason to vote for the guy, but I can see it pulling some votes his way.
    Last edited by M2; 10-02-2012 at 02:27 PM.
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  13. #177
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Crasnick pretty much kills it on the Trout-Cabrera debate in his column:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/84...rd-winners-mlb
    So we're allowed to celebrate this Triple Crown if Miguel Cabrera wins it. And anybody who refuses to celebrate it, based on some sort of condescending principle, has lost touch with a part of baseball that separates it from every other sport on earth. BUT, now that I've got that preamble out of the way, I have to admit: I missed the memo that says, "If you hit this trifecta, you should automatically win yourself a shiny, new MVP trophy." That, to me, seems just as absurd.

    The reason Mike Trout should win this award is that he's been the best -- and most valuable -- baseball player on this continent. That's not a new-age concept. It's as old-fashioned as it gets. And those of us who believe that don't believe it because we worship WAR, or because we see that Trout has accumulated more wins above replacement than Cabrera or anyone else.

  14. #178
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, if you are going to hit for a high average and a ton of power, you are probably going to put up a ton of WAR.
    And every winner has had the high WAR for his league, except for (potentially) Cabrera. Which likely shows the difference in the balance of Cabrera's game vs. the other TC winners. And the the huge difference between Trout's premium defensive game and base running vs. Cabrera's deficiencies in that regard.

  15. #179
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Crasnick pretty much kills it on the Trout-Cabrera debate in his column:
    So we're allowed to celebrate this Triple Crown if Miguel Cabrera wins it. And anybody who refuses to celebrate it, based on some sort of condescending principle, has lost touch with a part of baseball that separates it from every other sport on earth. BUT, now that I've got that preamble out of the way, I have to admit: I missed the memo that says, "If you hit this trifecta, you should automatically win yourself a shiny, new MVP trophy." That, to me, seems just as absurd.

    The reason Mike Trout should win this award is that he's been the best -- and most valuable -- baseball player on this continent. That's not a new-age concept. It's as old-fashioned as it gets. And those of us who believe that don't believe it because we worship WAR, or because we see that Trout has accumulated more wins above replacement than Cabrera or anyone else.
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/84...rd-winners-mlb
    Until the award goes out you are going to have a pretty fierce debate between your new age thinking and your traditional counting stats thinking. I think some of the writers will get a little smug in trying to defend their position.

    I think if something that hasn't happened in over 25 years happens the MVP should go to them. Couple that with Detroit making the post season and the Angles being the biggest disappointment of the year Cabrera should win the award. One player does not make a team, but when things are similar it should be considered. Trout had a great season, but if Cabrera hits for the Triple Crown, Cabrera should take the MVP.

  16. #180
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Until the award goes out you are going to have a pretty fierce debate between your new age thinking and your traditional counting stats thinking.
    IMO the counting stats folks are using the wrong counting stats, or at least not going far enough down the counting stats trail. Cabrera has big leads in total bases and times on base. The argument against that is he's got those leads because he played more, but that's precisely the point. He's played more, enabling him to have an effect on a greater number of games. Accumulation counts. It's not the whole argument, but it definitely scores some points in Cabrera's favor.
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