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Thread: AL mvp....

  1. #256
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Seriously though, no, even if you want rate Cabrera as a fair defender, Trout excels at his position...
    I agree. Yet the question is how much is that worth. One thing to keep in mind is that even the "bad" defensive CFs are usually pretty good fielders. Trout might not even be the best defensive CF on his own team. Peter Bourjos is no slouch.

    We see this at work on the Reds. Drew Stubbs is a talented CF, but he's just sort of average for his position because guys like Carlos Gomez and Michael Bourn also play CF. Excellence in CF is pretty common and it's a bit premature to declare Trout superior to his group of highly qualified peers.

    So definitely give Trout points for defense, but I recommend a little reserve in turning it into a gazillion dollar prize. He has a solid defensive advantage. If everything else is equal, then that should put him over the top. I think some analysis on this has been quick to get to everything else is equal.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #257
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Buster Olney was just on SVP. He said this: The GM's have all said that it isn't a debate, it should be Trout. He said that the players he has asked have all said it is Cabrera. He says he expects the writers to lean on the crutch that Cabrera made the playoffs, so he will win.
    In other words, the people whose actual professional expertise is the assessment of player value like Trout and think it's not even close.

    That's what always bugs me about asking the players and journalists. Neither of them have any more training in analyzing the value of player performance than your or I do -- and quite possibly less. Neither knowing how/being able to play baseball well nor being good at interviewing people and writing stories about the game involve the process of valuation.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #258
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Yep, all they have done is play the game almost their entire lives...what could the players know anyway???

  5. #259
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Yep, all they have done is play the game almost their entire lives...what could the players know anyway???
    How to play the game.

    Do you think the guy who has been on the assembly line at Ford should be the CEO of Ford just because he has 20 years of experience on the assembly line?

  6. #260
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree. Yet the question is how much is that worth. One thing to keep in mind is that even the "bad" defensive CFs are usually pretty good fielders. Trout might not even be the best defensive CF on his own team. Peter Bourjos is no slouch.

    We see this at work on the Reds. Drew Stubbs is a talented CF, but he's just sort of average for his position because guys like Carlos Gomez and Michael Bourn also play CF. Excellence in CF is pretty common and it's a bit premature to declare Trout superior to his group of highly qualified peers.

    So definitely give Trout points for defense, but I recommend a little reserve in turning it into a gazillion dollar prize. He has a solid defensive advantage. If everything else is equal, then that should put him over the top. I think some analysis on this has been quick to get to everything else is equal.
    What percentage of the outcome of baseball games do you think is a function of defensive performance?

    I ask because your method of valuing defense seems to relegate it to a mere marginal contribution that has no sense of scale and which shouldn't even be considered if the player has an advantage at the plate.

    I don't think that actually reflects how you value defense. That logic says Adam Dunn should be playing the outfield still. If defensive value has some scale associated with it, it should be treated as such. Maybe you think the difference in defense isn't worth more than say, 5 runs. I'd disagree, but at least then we can do the math. But when you treat it as a mere tie-breaker, you basically dismiss it entirely.

    And if you treat multiple aspects of the game that way, you miss that those other things, small on their own, can add up to a fairly significant number in aggregate.

    Let's take defense out of the question entirely. If we include all PA outcomes (e.g. double plays) and baserunning, do you think Cabrera was more productive than Trout?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #261
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    How to play the game.

    Do you think the guy who has been on the assembly line at Ford should be the CEO of Ford just because he has 20 years of experience on the assembly line?
    I don't think the two things are comparable. I think the players understand who the best player in the game is, which player strikes a bit of fear in their hearts when he steps to the plate. They are out there competing against these guys everyday. Yeah, what do they know?

  8. #262
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Yep, all they have done is play the game almost their entire lives...what could the players know anyway???
    They know A TON about how to play the game. More than you or I could ever dream of knowing. Unfortunately, that has knowledge and ability has very little to do with the process of valuation.

    If a guy is a great artist, does that make him a good accountant? Because that's basically what you're saying. Being able to paint an amazing picture does imply that you know how much a collector will -- or should -- pay for it. In fact, you'll probably be fairly biased, especially if you're told to consider all kinds of art and have never actually had to go through the process of selling your own work before.

    I think what happens is that we confuse the ability to identify and compare talent, which players are likely excellent at doing, with the ability to assess how that talent has been converted in to production in all areas of the game across the course of the entire season.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-03-2012 at 02:11 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #263
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Given Trout's speed, I wouldn't discount that a BABIP of .380 might be something that he duplicates.
    Fair point. He very well may have other seasons this high. Ichiro's done it three times. Yet Ichiro, who is probably the fastest player to 1B in our lifetimes, only has a .347 career BABIP. He's also only got a career .151 BA for balls hit on the infield (and it was .163, .184 and .207 in his best BABIP seasons). It's really balls hit to the OF which produce BABIP swings.

    Overall, Trout is going to trend lower in BABIP. No one stays up around .381.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  10. #264
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, it is very clear that by the stats, that Mike Trout has been significantly better than Cabrera and Hamilton. So what is that thing that is important that they are so much better at than Trout that puts them above him?
    If it were very clear we wouldn't be having this discussion. There is a very valid argument to be made for Cabrera winning the MVP, you just don't see it that way.

  11. #265
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    Re: AL mvp....

    I have found that musicians make the worst music critics, actors the worst movie critics, painters the worst painting critics, etc. They are too involved in the process to see the forest for the trees, to have a wholistic, objective view of what they do.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #266
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If it were very clear we wouldn't be having this discussion. There is a very valid argument to be made for Cabrera winning the MVP, you just don't see it that way.
    Yep, the etched in stone argument died when Moses came down the mountain with those tablets

  13. #267
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    They know A TON about how to play the game. More than you or I could ever dream of knowing. Unfortunately, that has knowledge and ability has very little to do with the process of valuation.

    If a guy is a great artist, does that make him a good accountant? Because that's basically what you're saying. Being able to paint an amazing picture does imply that you know how much a collector will -- or should -- pay for it. In fact, you'll probably be fairly biased, especially if you're told to consider all kinds of art and have never actually had to go through the process of selling your own work before.

    I think what happens is that we confuse the ability to identify and compare talent, which players are likely excellent at doing, with the ability to assess how that talent has been converted in to production in all areas of the game across the course of the entire season.
    I don't believe that the only way to convert talent into production is through metrics. I believe they are useful, but not the end of the analysis. It's fine with me if that is where the you want to stop evaluating, but I am not going to just agree with it. All of these arguments about players come down to the same thing: metrics vs non-metrics. I realize this is a forum with posters who are way more than just the casual Reds fan. I am way more than just a casual Reds fan. Sometimes, though, I find that people tend to get lost in the metrics and lose the baseball.

    It's just my opinion. Much like who we think should be MVP is each of our own opinions. I wouldn't think twice about voting for Cabrera and I do think his leadership (not only moving to 3B), his 2nd half production, his production leading his team to running down the White Sox and his entire season bring me to that conclusion. How much emphasis should there be on defense is really the only argument against Cabrera. Are the extra 4-8 outs that Trout records in CF over the average CF really worth that much? Is it even that many? How much emphasis should be put on GDP of 28 vs 7...Cabrera does not bat lead off...How important are SB's? They both clearly had a great season. I just like Cabrera's season better personally.

    Bum

  14. #268
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    What percentage of the outcome of baseball games do you think is a function of defensive performance?

    I ask because your method of valuing defense seems to relegate it to a mere marginal contribution that has no sense of scale and which shouldn't even be considered if the player has an advantage at the plate.

    I don't think that actually reflects how you value defense. That logic says Adam Dunn should be playing the outfield still. If defensive value has some scale associated with it, it should be treated as such. Maybe you think the difference in defense isn't worth more than say, 5 runs. I'd disagree, but at least then we can do the math. But when you treat it as a mere tie-breaker, you basically dismiss it entirely.

    And if you treat multiple aspects of the game that way, you miss that those other things, small on their own, can add up to a fairly significant number in aggregate.

    Let's take defense out of the question entirely. If we include all PA outcomes (e.g. double plays) and baserunning, do you think Cabrera was more productive than Trout?
    I've already gone into why I would vote for Cabrera over Trout in this thread. No point in repeating it. You can go go back and read it if you wish.

    As for the value of defense. Neither you, nor me, nor anyone else on this planet has a good statistical fix on it. The noisiest, silliest stats in baseball revolve around defense. We don't even have a good sense for what the luck variance is on defense.

    Never said defense doesn't matter or that it shouldn't be taken into consideration, just that caution is called for when trying to account for something you don't measure particularly well.

    What would be more productive is trying to understand the range of potential values created by Trout's defensive advantage. It also would be helpful to understand where his defense and production really fit in a sport that's a bit flush with good defensive CFs who can get it done at the plate. I don't think linear weights is quite catching the full effect of that. Nor do I think linear weights are quite catching the value of exceptional production from a 3B in the current talent climate (where 3B is dropping behind 2B in terms of overall productivity).

    I don't actually care who wins the AL MVP. Trout or Cabrera is fine by me. Both are excellent choices. What interests me (and that I find more than a bit disappointing) is how shallow the arguments have been in support of both players (and I'm talking mostly about the wider debate going on outside of this board). Both players have attributes and weaknesses that are being overlooked. Cabrera is more than his special achievement. Trout is more than WAR -as much some insist they're beyond WAR, when you pick through the verbiage you're mostly left with WAR.

    The rush for a simple answer, IMO, is passing by a chance to think more broadly about the game.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #269
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    I've a different way of looking at this: I think Cabrera is a player who's having a HOF career. Because of that, and that he's never won an MVP, and that not only is he deserving, he's on a winning team, I think he should get it over Trout. Trout gets ROY of course, and he'll have his shot at the MVP in the future. But for this year, Cabrera deserves it.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  16. #270
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: AL mvp....

    If Cabrera played for the Whitesox, it's very likely that we wouldn't be having this conversation.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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