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Thread: NL mvp...

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    NL mvp...

    As a sibling to the "AL mvp" thread, let's discuss who on Earth will win the NL MVP.

    In any ordinary year, Ryan Braun would be the easy leader in the clubhouse, especially with the Brewers going on a monumental tear down the stretch to get within striking distance of the wild card. That said, he's going to have an unbelievably difficult time winning over voters due to his shenanigans.

    So is it Braun? Buster Posey? Andrew McCutchen who's Pirates are now likely to finish under .500? Joey Votto despite missing 2 months? Matt Kemp also missing significant time? Jay Bruce? David Wright?

    Seems as if there simply is not a very good choice. My guess is still Buster Posey, but this might be the most wide-open MVP race ever.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Member Crumbley's Avatar
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    Posey.

    Can't stand him but Necktat ranks highly for me.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Posey.

  5. #4
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Yeah I'd say Posey.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  6. #5
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    I'd say Posey's running away with it now. Sucks Votto went down. Would've probably racked up MVP number 2.
    Last edited by Superdude; 09-22-2012 at 03:13 AM.

  7. #6
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    McCutchen.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Posey
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    If I take feelings out of the equation. Braun with Molina a close 2nd. But since I can't stand either of those guys, Posey.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  10. #9
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    I'd vote Braun. He's the most complete offensive player in the NL. Though Posey or McCutchen would be worthy choices too.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    I think Ryan Braun should win the MVP. I think Buster Posey will win the MVP.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I think Ryan Braun should win the MVP. I think Buster Posey will win the MVP.
    Mind if I ask why you would take Braun over Posey?

    Posey currently has the best OPS+ in the game at 171 while also catching 108 games so far this year. Posey has been the better bat and also plays a far more important position defensively.

  13. #12
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mind if I ask why you would take Braun over Posey?

    Posey currently has the best OPS+ in the game at 171 while also catching 108 games so far this year. Posey has been the better bat and also plays a far more important position defensively.
    Posey is having a great season and is a deserving candidate, but Braun has far outproduced Posey in almost every category.

    Braun blows Posey out of the water in Runs 98-74, RBIs 106-96, Home Runs 40-23, Stolen Bases 29-1, OPS .990-.954, wOBA .418-.404 and WAR 7.8-7.1 (includes defense and positional adjustment). Posey played 30% of his games at 1B, the easiest position.

    All things considered I think Braun had the better season and is the better player. Posey was great too, but I would vote for Braun 1st, Posey 2nd, Votto 3rd and McCutchen 4th.

    Actually Joey Votto had the most impressive season, but he missed too much time to qualify for the award in my opinion. His .438 wOBA and 1.050 OPS were the best in baseball.

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Posey is having a great season and is a deserving candidate, but Braun has far outproduced Posey in almost every category.

    Braun blows Posey out of the water in Runs 98-74, RBIs 106-96, Home Runs 40-23, Stolen Bases 29-1, OPS .990-.954, wOBA .418-.404 and WAR 7.8-7.1 (includes defense and positional adjustment). Posey played 30% of his games at 1B, the easiest position.

    All things considered I think Braun had the better season and is the better player. Posey was great too, but I would vote for Braun 1st, Posey 2nd, Votto 3rd and McCutchen 4th.

    Actually Joey Votto had the most impressive season, but he missed too much time to qualify for the award in my opinion. His .438 wOBA and 1.050 OPS were the best in baseball.
    Posey isn't getting any defensive value in WAR since he is a catcher other than the positional adjustment, so I would toss that one right out of the window. Runs, RBI, home runs.... all a matter of opportunity. Posey plays in SF. Braun plays in much better hitter friendly environments. wOBA isn't adjusted for environment is it? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.

  15. #14
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Posey isn't getting any defensive value in WAR since he is a catcher other than the positional adjustment, so I would toss that one right out of the window. Runs, RBI, home runs.... all a matter of opportunity. Posey plays in SF. Braun plays in much better hitter friendly environments. wOBA isn't adjusted for environment is it? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.
    Catchers get a 2.0 WAR head start over left fielders based solely on their position. The positional adjustment in WAR is a huge advantage for a catcher, yet Braun still has a higher WAR than Posey.

    The Brewers have only scored 50 more runs than the Giants over the course of the full season, so Posey is not exactly playing at a big disadvantage compared to Braun in terms of the run scoring environment. It is certainly not enough of a disadvantage to account for the wide leads that Braun has over Posey in most categories. Braun hit twice as many HRs as Posey and stole 29 bases to Posey's 1.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-22-2012 at 03:03 PM.

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Catchers get a 2.0 WAR head start over left fielders based solely on their position. The positional adjustment in WAR is a huge advantage for a catcher, yet Braun still has a higher WAR than Posey.

    The Brewers have only scored 50 more runs than the Giants over the course of the full season, so Posey is not exactly playing at a big disadvantage compared to Braun in terms of the run scoring environment. It is certainly not enough of a disadvantage to account for the wide leads that Braun has over Posey in most categories. Braun hit twice as many HRs as Posey and stole 29 bases to Posey's 1.
    Here's the Fangraphs WAR data for these two:

    Code:
    	Batting	BaseRunning	Fielding	Replacement Positional	RAR	WAR
    Braun:	52.4	3.3		4.0		20.9	       -6.5	74.1	7.8	
    Posey: 	44.2	-4.1		2.6		19.2		6.0	67.8	7.1
    I don't see a 2 WAR adjustment in there. I do see the 12.5 run difference in the positional column, which is what I assume you're referring to.

    Regarding catcher defense, here's how Fangraphs handles it:
    Since there is no UZR data for catchers, the fielding component for catcher fWAR is calculated using two parts: the Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB) metric from the Fielding Bible, and Runs saved from Passed Pitches (RPP). This accounts for a large portion of a catcher’s value, although pitch framing is not yet included in WAR.
    So that notably leaves out pitch framing. I don't know how Posey rates there. I saw one article that had him at +8 runs in 2010, but who knows the accuracy of those ratings or their consistency year-to-year.

    Both Fangraphs and B-R have Braun & McCutchen ahead of Posey and have Posey and Wright more or less tied. But the difference is less than 1 win. I'm basically giving Posey extra credit for the value of catching I think WAR misses, but think there's certain a defensible argument for any of these guys -- certainly more so than the AL race.

    _____

    On a separate note, let's stop treating WAR like it's another stat alongside things like Homers and RBI. The value of the other things is captured in WAR. You can choose to use those things instead of WAR if you think WAR is just bad math. You can make your own version of WAR that values things differently. Or you can supplement WAR with things it doesn't include, like leadership, chemistry or special accomplishments. But adding components of WAR to WAR is silly. There's no logical argument that says, well, they're equal in WAR but this guy has more HR or that guy has more SB. Those are already in there; there's no reason to count it twice. It would be like saying that 1+2+3+4 > 0+0+5+5 because 2 is greater than 0. It just doesn't make sense.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-22-2012 at 04:33 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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