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Thread: NL mvp...

  1. #16
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Here's the Fangraphs WAR data for these two:

    Code:
    	Batting	BaseRunning	Fielding	Replacement Positional	RAR	WAR
    Braun:	52.4	3.3		4.0		20.9	       -6.5	74.1	7.8	
    Posey: 	44.2	-4.1		2.6		19.2		6.0	67.8	7.1
    I don't see a 2 WAR adjustment in there. I do see the 12.5 run difference in the positional column, which is what I assume you're referring to.

    Regarding catcher defense, here's how Fangraphs handles it:


    So that notably leaves out pitch framing. I don't know how Posey rates there. I saw one article that had him at +8 runs in 2010, but who knows the accuracy of those ratings or their consistency year-to-year.

    Both Fangraphs and B-R have Braun & McCutchen ahead of Posey and have Posey and Wright more or less tied. But the difference is less than 1 win. I'm basically giving Posey extra credit for the value of catching I think WAR misses, but think there's certain a defensible argument for any of these guys -- certainly more so than the AL race.

    _____

    On a separate note, let's stop treating WAR like it's another stat alongside things like Homers and RBI. The value of the other things is captured in WAR. You can choose to use those things instead of WAR if you think WAR is just bad math. You can make your own version of WAR that values things differently. Or you can supplement WAR with things it doesn't include, like leadership, chemistry or special accomplishments. But adding components of WAR to WAR is silly. There's no logical argument that says, well, they're equal in WAR but this guy has more HR or that guy has more SB. Those are already in there; there's no reason to count it twice. It would be like saying that 1+2+3+4 > 0+0+5+5 because 2 is greater than 0. It just doesn't make sense.
    What if you think WAR isn't the greatest math, but is good enough once you observe its components?

    (Which is how I view it, for the record.)

    In terms of pure production, I might give it to Braun. But I can't decide if Braun being a much better hitter and base runner makes up for the fact that Posey is better defensive player and a catcher.


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  3. #17
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    What if you think WAR isn't the greatest math, but is good enough once you observe its components?

    (Which is how I view it, for the record.)

    In terms of pure production, I might give it to Braun. But I can't decide if Braun being a much better hitter and base runner makes up for the fact that Posey is better defensive player and a catcher.
    Buster Posey has the highest OPS+ in baseball. That suggests that he is indeed the best hitter in baseball. It is adjusted for all parks played in throughout the year. So I would argue that Braun isn't really a better hitter, much less a much better one.

  4. #18
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Buster Posey has the highest OPS+ in baseball. That suggests that he is indeed the best hitter in baseball. It is adjusted for all parks played in throughout the year. So I would argue that Braun isn't really a better hitter, much less a much better one.
    I thought Posey's line looked a lot different, but I guess I haven't checked stats around the league as recently as I thought. Alright yeah I guess they're pretty equal.

    I guess it comes down to better base running or better defense/being a catcher.

  5. #19
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Chapman. Without him the Reds would be an also-ran.

  6. #20
    rest in power, king Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by RBA View Post
    Chapman. Without him the Reds would be an also-ran.
    I would put pretty good odds he gets at least a first place vote or two.

  7. #21
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    What if you think WAR isn't the greatest math, but is good enough once you observe its components?

    (Which is how I view it, for the record.)

    In terms of pure production, I might give it to Braun. But I can't decide if Braun being a much better hitter and base runner makes up for the fact that Posey is better defensive player and a catcher.
    You're basically creating your own version of it, without the benefit of a transparent process. That doesn't make it wrong of course, but it does leave it open to inconsistent application.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #22
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by RBA View Post
    Chapman. Without him the Reds would be an also-ran.
    We are about 11 gamas ahead of the last wild card spot. Sop, I'm assuming an "also-ran" might be about 4 games behind that.

    I doubt Chapman has been worth an additional 15 wins.

  9. #23
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    _____

    On a separate note, let's stop treating WAR like it's another stat alongside things like Homers and RBI. The value of the other things is captured in WAR. You can choose to use those things instead of WAR if you think WAR is just bad math. You can make your own version of WAR that values things differently. Or you can supplement WAR with things it doesn't include, like leadership, chemistry or special accomplishments. But adding components of WAR to WAR is silly. There's no logical argument that says, well, they're equal in WAR but this guy has more HR or that guy has more SB. Those are already in there; there's no reason to count it twice. It would be like saying that 1+2+3+4 > 0+0+5+5 because 2 is greater than 0. It just doesn't make sense.
    I am not sure why you threw this paragraph into your post replying to my post. Believe me, I am as well-versed on WAR as anybody on this board. I was not adding something on to WAR, nor counting anything twice, nor using bad math, nor making up my own version of WAR, nor being silly. I don't think anybody else here was doing that either.

    There are lots of stats in baseball and Ryan Braun is at or near the top in all of them. That is the point I was making. No matter how an observer likes to value baseball players Ryan Braun is going to be a stud in everybody's opinion. You like the Triple Crown stats? Ryan Braun looks like an MVP. You like the slash stats? Ryan Braun looks like an MVP. You like speed and defense? Ryan Braun looks like an MVP. You like sabermetric stats? Ryan Braun looks like an MVP. By any statistical measure Ryan Braun qualifies as an MVP. Buster Posey on the other hand looks great in most measures but lags in a few too. That is why I would vote for Ryan Braun for 2012 NL MVP.

    If WAR is the only stat that matters then why do we even have a message board to discuss baseball? WAR tells us everything we need to know? I don't think so. Pointing out a player's WAR does not end the conversation. Far from it. Even amongst the most die-hard sabermetricians there is a lot more than WAR to consider when evaluating players. Even the best metrics have flaws.

    I believe WAR is a very good metric, not perfect, but good. It is probably the best one-size-fits-all stat available to the public right now. If I were stranded on a deserted island and could only see one statistic then I would choose WAR. But I also believe there is a lot more to sabermetrics and baseball than just WAR.

    The WAR formula is an ever-evolving thing. There are multiple versions of it now that give different results. 10 years in the future the WAR stat will have a completely different algorithm than it does now I am certain. Something that is constantly changing can't be considered Truth. The Truth doesn't get modified and updated every year. There is only one version of the Truth. Right now there is no Truth in baseball.

    WAR doesn't have such a hot record of matching the MVP winners. WAR leaders don't usually win the MVP. There is rightfully a lot more that goes into electing an MVP than merely looking at the players' WAR scores.

  10. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    What?! You mean I don't have to stop thinking about baseball because of WAR? I thought we just add up the WAR now to determine the WARVP a to declare the winner of the WARld Series.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  11. #25
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    What?! You mean I don't have to stop thinking about baseball because of WAR? I thought we just add up the WAR now to determine the WARVP a to declare the winner of the WARld Series.
    You're right. I forgot about that. Nevermind...

  12. #26
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Catchers get a 2.0 WAR head start over left fielders based solely on their position. The positional adjustment in WAR is a huge advantage for a catcher, yet Braun still has a higher WAR than Posey.
    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Here's the Fangraphs WAR data for these two:

    Code:
    	Batting	BaseRunning	Fielding	Replacement Positional	RAR	WAR
    Braun:	52.4	3.3		4.0		20.9	       -6.5	74.1	7.8	
    Posey: 	44.2	-4.1		2.6		19.2		6.0	67.8	7.1
    I don't see a 2 WAR adjustment in there. I do see the 12.5 run difference in the positional column, which is what I assume you're referring to.
    I was referring to the generic positional adjustments for WAR. If a player plays a full season at catcher he gets a +12.5 runs saved positional adjustment. If a player plays a full season in left field he starts with -7.5 runs saved before his performance is factored in. That is a difference of 20 runs which is roughly equivalent to 2 WAR.

    The numbers for Braun and Posey are a little different because they have only played 140 games each (not a full season). Plus Posey only played 108 of those at catcher and the rest at first base or DH (which have negative positional adjustments) so he didn't get the entire +12.5 bonus for being a full-time catcher.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-22-2012 at 09:38 PM.

  13. #27
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Brandon Phillips. I'm a member of SABR and I don't care about statistics in this argument. He played hurt at the beginning of the year. He hit fourth when asked. He's now batting leadoff because the guy who should be batting leadoff can't figure out how to do it. He performs ballet at 2b. He's my vote if I had one.
    Where we gonna go?

  14. #28
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Buster Posey has the highest OPS+ in baseball. That suggests that he is indeed the best hitter in baseball. It is adjusted for all parks played in throughout the year. So I would argue that Braun isn't really a better hitter, much less a much better one.
    I thought wOBA was the go-to hitting stat if there was one now?

  15. #29
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I thought wOBA was the go-to hitting stat if there was one now?
    If it isn't park adjusted, then no, it shouldn't be. A home run is more valuable in Petco than it is in GABP. wOBA does not account for that (I don't think). OPS+ does.

  16. #30
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: NL mvp...

    wOBA is not park-adjusted, however it is less park-affected than OPS is because wOBA more accurately weights the various hit types ( e.g. it gives less credit for home runs). wOBA is essentially a more mathematically-sound alternative to OPS. wOBA does include stolen bases in the equation.

    WAR uses a park-adjusted wOBA (wRAA or Weighted Runs Above Average) as part of its algorithm. Braun leads Posey 52.4 - 41.2 in wRAA. This is a counting stat.

    wOBA is a rate statistic like Batting Average or OPS, while WAR is a counting stat like Home Runs or RBIs.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-22-2012 at 10:38 PM.


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