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Thread: Set your playoff rotation

  1. #31
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Cueto vs. Bailey ain't no coin flip, I don't care where they're pitching.
    Cueto career road ERA: 3.67
    Bailey career road ERA: 3.95

    Cueto career home ERA: 3.52
    Bailey career home ERA: 5.13

    It seems their career performances suggest that on the road, it is closer to a coin flip. At home, not so much.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #32
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Cueto career road ERA: 3.67
    Bailey career road ERA: 3.95

    Cueto career home ERA: 3.52
    Bailey career home ERA: 5.13

    It seems their career performances suggest that on the road, it is closer to a coin flip. At home, not so much.
    I could give a flying fig about splits in the playoffs. You have no idea what you're going to get from anyone in a short series, so you just play your best players, pitch your best pitchers and pray for the best.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    I'd rather flip the coin and have Bailey start on the road in game 2 and have Cueto and then a choice of Latos/Arroyo for games 3 and 4 at home.

    But Reds management and Dusty will play it by the book and pitch Cueto and Latos in the first 2 games because they rarely think outside of the box. They'll play it safe so if it goes wrong, they don't look bad.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  5. #34
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I'd rather flip the coin and have Bailey start on the road in game 2 and have Cueto and then a choice of Latos/Arroyo for games 3 and 4 at home.

    But Reds management and Dusty will play it by the book and pitch Cueto and Latos in the first 2 games because they rarely think outside of the box. They'll play it safe so if it goes wrong, they don't look bad.
    And probably do the safe thing of batting Votto third instead of Hanigan? Those dang traditionalists.
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  6. #35
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    And probably do the safe thing of batting Votto third instead of Hanigan? Those dang traditionalists.
    Let's see how well you'd be thinking if your mom just had a stroke during open heart surgery.

    Geez. I come on here to take my mind off of it, and have to deal with being made fun of, insulted, and harassed.

    I guess if she dies you'll raise the bar and really pour it on.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  7. #36
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Everyone seems to be jumping the gun here. I still think the Reds will get the 3 Seed and start at home. Has anyone else thought of this senario.

    I can see it this way.

    1 seed - SF
    2 seed - Wash
    3 seed - Reds
    WC - ATL & STL

  8. #37
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    If the playoff rotation is Cueto, Arryo, Latos, Homer as it appears it's being setup to be, that actually makes a lot of sense.

    People make the arguement that Homer benefits from the road, but I think Arroyo benefits as well.. At home, hitters are OPSing 766 against Arroyo, on the road it's 671 OPS against.
    I think most people would agree that Arroyo has had a better season this year than Homer.
    Having Latos in game 3 would be nice as well.

    I think the Reds need to put Homer in the #4 slot.. He's the weakest link of the playoff pitchers. You want to minimize his starts. Hopefully, the Reds don't enter game #4 down 1-2.
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  9. #38
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Let's see how well you'd be thinking if your mom just had a stroke during open heart surgery.

    Geez. I come on here to take my mind off of it, and have to deal with being made fun of, insulted, and harassed.

    I guess if she dies you'll raise the bar and really pour it on.
    Please accept my sympathy for your personal situation.

    However, I'm not sure that it is fair to call me a meany for responding to someone with the basic assumption that they are not posting under mental duress due to a personal tragedy. That isn't a realistic expectation of another person, especially on an internet message board.
    Can't win with 'em

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  10. #39
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Please accept my sympathy for your personal situation.

    However, I'm not sure that it is fair to call me a meany for responding to someone with the basic assumption that they are not posting under mental duress due to a personal tragedy. That isn't a realistic expectation of another person, especially on an internet message board.

    While we all symphasize with Vottomatic's personal situation, it is indeed unfair to come down harshly on traderumour for expressing a different opinion.

    I would suggest in the future that if a poster is posting under some personal tragedy constraints to let us know in advance and we will respond accordingly. Otherwise I'm not sure why anyone whould have any idea that disagreements aren't in order on a posting board.

    My personal best to you and your Mom Vottomatic. My Mom is 92 so I know where you are coming from. It is not an easy time.

  11. #40
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    While we all symphasize with Vottomatic's personal situation, it is indeed unfair to come down harshly on traderumour for expressing a different opinion.

    I would suggest in the future that if a poster is posting under some personal tragedy constraints to let us know in advance and we will respond accordingly. Otherwise I'm not sure why anyone whould have any idea that disagreements aren't in order on a posting board.

    My personal best to you and your Mom Vottomatic. My Mom is 92 so I know where you are coming from. It is not an easy time.
    I did mention it in the other thread about should Votto bat third or whatever it was called. I made a couple of dumb suggestions and got ripped to shreds over it. Later, I apologized and said I wasn't thinking too straight.

    But I apologize to traderumor for getting testy. I'm a bit on edge. I was coming on here to take my mind off of it.

    But I got good news. She has come out of it, and is making good progress.

    Here's the situation: She had open heart surgery 10 years ago for 6 bi-passes. She chose the same surgeon, Dr. Buckley at Anderson Mercy Hospital, to have her aortic valve replaced and possibly another valve if needed. We didn't know this beforehand, but because the valve is calcified, there is a 5% chance of some particles breaking off into the bloodstream and going to her brain and causing a stroke, which unfortunately happened. The valve surgery went well and they didn't need to replace the other valve, only the aortic. Once the aortic valve was replaced (the valve where the blood exits the heart....it was causing blood to back up into her heart and put pressure on the other valves), the other valves started working well. But she had a stroke during the 8 hour surgery.

    When she had bi-pass surgery, I remember talking to her the next day. Same was supposed to happen with this surgery, but she was pretty much catatonic. The doctor told us after a few days she'd had the stroke and might have brain damage, be paralyzed, and we might be looking at a long term type care with a feeding tube........to be blunt......I was thinking my poor mom was going to be a vegetable and we'd have to make some impossible decisions.

    But the last couple of days she has come out of it. Is not paralyzed. Is speaking the best she can. And the prognosis is amazingly better. But I've been about as wanged out as I've ever been. I'm 47 and my mom is 72. My dad is 75 and in good health (knock on wood). I haven't really had to deal with possibly losing a parent yet.

    So again, the ordeal has had me not able to sleep and on edge. But I apologize for being nasty to anyone. It's been hard to take my mind off it. I keep fearing she'll have a relapse or another stroke. But I pray it keeps getting better.

    Thanks for understanding.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  12. #41
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I doubt that the Reds suddenly start asking Cueto and Latos to pitch on 3 days rest. Th epalyoff history on pitchers doing that in the last 10-15 years is not kind.

    Having said that, the thought that Homer can't pitch at home is likely a small sample size one, as it's the first year it has occured. And, as you say, his September starts at home have been fine.

    In any event, the Reds will go with the following order:

    Cueto/Latos
    Arroyo
    Latos/Cueto
    Bailey
    I agree that the 3-day rest thing hasn't worked well lately. I would argue that we have a good enough bullpen that if Cueto gave us 90 pitches, he'd probably be into the 7th inning, hand it off to Sean Marshall, and then he'd feel fine on three days rest.

    But you're probably right that the 3-man rotation isn't going to happen.

    I'm surprised that there isn't more negative reaction to pitching Arroyo in Game 2, notwithstanding his recent success. I'd bet that about 99% of major league hitters will go into game 2 with more confidence against Bronson than Latos.

    Has anyone mentioned the rainout variable? Imagine that there's a rainout that pushes games 4 and 5 back 1 day. If that happens, we will be kicking ourselves that we didn't start Cueto/Latos in games 1/2, because they'd be able to pitch games 4/5 on regular rest.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  13. #42
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I did mention it in the other thread about should Votto bat third or whatever it was called. I made a couple of dumb suggestions and got ripped to shreds over it. Later, I apologized and said I wasn't thinking too straight.

    But I apologize to traderumor for getting testy. I'm a bit on edge. I was coming on here to take my mind off of it.

    But I got good news. She has come out of it, and is making good progress.

    Here's the situation: She had open heart surgery 10 years ago for 6 bi-passes. She chose the same surgeon, Dr. Buckley at Anderson Mercy Hospital, to have her aortic valve replaced and possibly another valve if needed. We didn't know this beforehand, but because the valve is calcified, there is a 5% chance of some particles breaking off into the bloodstream and going to her brain and causing a stroke, which unfortunately happened. The valve surgery went well and they didn't need to replace the other valve, only the aortic. Once the aortic valve was replaced (the valve where the blood exits the heart....it was causing blood to back up into her heart and put pressure on the other valves), the other valves started working well. But she had a stroke during the 8 hour surgery.

    When she had bi-pass surgery, I remember talking to her the next day. Same was supposed to happen with this surgery, but she was pretty much catatonic. The doctor told us after a few days she'd had the stroke and might have brain damage, be paralyzed, and we might be looking at a long term type care with a feeding tube........to be blunt......I was thinking my poor mom was going to be a vegetable and we'd have to make some impossible decisions.

    But the last couple of days she has come out of it. Is not paralyzed. Is speaking the best she can. And the prognosis is amazingly better. But I've been about as wanged out as I've ever been. I'm 47 and my mom is 72. My dad is 75 and in good health (knock on wood). I haven't really had to deal with possibly losing a parent yet.

    So again, the ordeal has had me not able to sleep and on edge. But I apologize for being nasty to anyone. It's been hard to take my mind off it. I keep fearing she'll have a relapse or another stroke. But I pray it keeps getting better.

    Thanks for understanding.
    I am glad to hear your mother is doing better.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  14. #43
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    I agree that the 3-day rest thing hasn't worked well lately. I would argue that we have a good enough bullpen that if Cueto gave us 90 pitches, he'd probably be into the 7th inning, hand it off to Sean Marshall, and then he'd feel fine on three days rest.

    The problem with pitching on 3 days rest isn't that the starter can only go 90 pitches, it's that he's suddenly pitching in a completely different routine, and is likely less effective right from the get go. A pitchers routine and the ability for his arm to bounce back when that routine is suddenly varied differs from pitcher to pitcher. If the Reds wanted the Reds starters to pitch on 3 days rest in the playoffs, they should have started that routine a while ago.

  15. #44
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    3 days rest is usually for elimination games. Its probably a crapshoot as to whether its actually increases your chance to win by using the fresh, less talented arm vs. the fatigued, more talented arm (bloody sock not withstanding )
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  16. #45
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Set your playoff rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rover View Post
    Everyone seems to be jumping the gun here. I still think the Reds will get the 3 Seed and start at home. Has anyone else thought of this senario.

    I can see it this way.

    1 seed - SF
    2 seed - Wash
    3 seed - Reds
    WC - ATL & STL
    We're starting to run out of games here. The Reds only have 8 games left to play.

    The Reds and Nationals are tied for #1 seed, but the Nationals have the tiebreaker so they'd be the one. The Reds are 4 up in the loss column on the Giants (I'm not sure who has the tiebreak without looking it up).

    It's very unlikely the Reds finish as the 3 seed at this point.

    If I was betting my life on it, I would bet the Reds end up as the 1 seed and play the Cardinals in the first round.

    As for the rotation, it looks like it's going to be Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Cueto in round one.

    In the second round, you add another off day. Lets say the Reds win in 4 in the NLDS, hypothetically the rotation would line up as Cueto, Arroyo (off day), Latos, Bailey (off day), Cueto (on 5 days rest), Arroyo (on 5 days rest), Latos (on normal rest).
    Last edited by reds44; 09-26-2012 at 01:08 PM.
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