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Thread: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    In a column tonight, he writes that Homer's road ERA (2.41) is second-best in all of baseball, and he would start Bailey as the second starter in the playoffs to take advantage of that.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...another-weapon

    I have been harping on this for a few weeks, but I'll repeat it: if the Reds don't take advantage of this, I'd personally rather have Leake start in Cincinnati than Bailey. However, I think Bailey starting on the road is the optimal situation, as Cueto has a 2.80 ERA in Cincinnati (the presumption here is that Latos is lights out in San Francisco so he should start game one, though one can't argue with Cueto either).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Have to agree if Playoffs start on the road Bailey's stats point clearly he's a better option than Arroyo.

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    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    It is certainly a compelling argument. As good as he was Friday night, he was torched by the Dodgers in his last home start. The stakes are so high, I would pay attention to those splits to try and get an edge in the playoffs. But, this coaching staff has never shown an inclination to micromanage it's rotation that way. They are much more inclined to slot guys and not second guess themselves about it.

    Homer is currently scheduled to pitch the last ballgame of the season Wednesday. That squarely puts him on target to pitch in game 3 or 4 of the NLDS. No matter which game that is, it will be at home.

    Cueto is a cinch to open the playoffs at this point, irregardless of the opponent. Then, it is either Arroyo or Latos. Game three is, again, going to be either Arroyo or Latos, followed by Homer at GABP in game four. We might as well already reconcile ourselves to the notion that Homer is destined to draw that assignment, and that it very well may be the decisive game of that series.

    I am encouraged by the evidence that the cold weather has neutralized the park effects of GABP as the season progresses into the fall. I saw half a dozen baseballs caught on the warning track in the last homestand that would have been homers in July and August, and a climate change like that should only play into the hands of power pitcher like Homer. But, he still has to get past the psychology that the place has perpetrated against him throughout his career and go after hitters in that game the same way he did Friday night against Pittsburgh.

    Obviously, it is a hurdle Bailey is more than capable of overcoming and I am getting tired of having to obsess on it. Better that we should all be like Dusty and not second guess how the chips fall...
    Last edited by Phhhl; 09-29-2012 at 01:58 AM.

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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Go check the postseason starter thread. I have Bailey #2 on the road.
    I've been up and down on Homer. But I had it right. Latos and Bailey are the hottest starters right now. Daggone it. Frickin' reward them.

    I thought Albert Pujols was just blowing smoke when he was asked about starters who would be really good and he answered Homer. I've had my doubts for a long time.

    I've been on the Homer bandwagon for the past 1.5 months. Dude rocks.

    And I'm so happy for him tonight.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by Phhhl View Post
    It is certainly a compelling argument. As good as he was Friday night, he was torched by the Dodgers in his last home start.
    He was lights out through 6 innings against the Dodgers and fell apart in the 7th. He even admitted that he was tired and ran out of gas after partying up the division clinch the night before. In the playoffs, I'll take those 6 innings of 1 run ball any time, home or away.

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    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    He has been more solid in September at home. If he throws the ball the way he did last night, I don't think it matters what park it is.
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    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    The offense may be weak right now but seriously, Who has 3-4 hotter starters right now than the Reds? Cueto has looked really good the last 2 starts. Latos has been magnificent for 2 months now. Arroyo has been great other than a couple starts since the All-Star break it seems, and Homer has been hotter than a firecracker since Sept. started. Sucks to be a Reds opponent whoever it may be. 4 deep in the playoffs. Geez and other than Bronson these guys are all in their mid twenties just barely into their prime.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

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    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by OldRightHander View Post
    He has been more solid in September at home. If he throws the ball the way he did last night, I don't think it matters what park it is.
    The thing that shocked me was how few breaking balls he threw. Usually when hes really good hes throwing that splitter/fork ball/changeup or whatever it is and his slider. Last night it was straight heat and boy was he hitting every corner. Hanigans mitt didnt move all night. After the game. BP said that the umps zone was real tight. Just makes Homer's performance that much better.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    There's no reason to believe that GABP has a disproportionately strong effect on Homer Bailey. Homer's road ERA is driven by an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (4.7%) while his HR/FB rate at home is equally unsustainable (18.4%). That's it. His K & BB rates are pretty close -- better on the road actually.

    it's one of those things that's real from a results standpoint, but simply a fluke of small samples and not reflective of a particular skill.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's no reason to believe that GABP has a disproportionately strong effect on Homer Bailey. Homer's road ERA is driven by an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (4.7%) while his HR/FB rate at home is equally unsustainable (18.4%). That's it. His K & BB rates are pretty close -- better on the road actually.

    it's one of those things that's real from a results standpoint, but simply a fluke of small samples and not reflective of a particular skill.
    It's not just one season, Rick. The real results you speak of have been reflected over an entire career. His road ERA is almost a run and a half better than at home over his sum career to this point. His FIP is nearly an entire run better, as well.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's no reason to believe that GABP has a disproportionately strong effect on Homer Bailey. Homer's road ERA is driven by an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (4.7%) while his HR/FB rate at home is equally unsustainable (18.4%). That's it. His K & BB rates are pretty close -- better on the road actually.

    it's one of those things that's real from a results standpoint, but simply a fluke of small samples and not reflective of a particular skill.
    Maybe it is something mental. In GABP he simply doesn't trust his stuff as much and knows he has to be perfect because the place is unforgiving, thus he tries a little harder and makes a few more mistakes. On the road he doesn't worry so much about giving up the cheapies, doesn't try as hard and stays nice and smooth and makes fewer mistakes. No way at all to prove that. Just a thought.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Maybe it is something mental. In GABP he simply doesn't trust his stuff as much and knows he has to be perfect because the place is unforgiving, thus he tries a little harder and makes a few more mistakes. On the road he doesn't worry so much about giving up the cheapies, doesn't try as hard and stays nice and smooth and makes fewer mistakes. No way at all to prove that. Just a thought.
    Its a good thought. It would be my bet as well.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It's not just one season, Rick. The real results you speak of have been reflected over an entire career. His road ERA is almost a run and a half better than at home over his sum career to this point. His FIP is nearly an entire run better, as well.
    It's almost entirely a result of the home runs.

    Code:
    	IP	K%	BB%	GB:FB	HR/FB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP
    Home	344	18.8%	8.5%	1.15	13.2%	.319	5.13	4.66	4.21
    Road	296	17.2%	7.4%	1.23	 8.0%	.282	3.83	3.80	4.11
    Sure, so long as he's a Red, we're likely going to see him continue to have a lower road ERA. And so long as he has the Reds defense behind him, his ERA will be better than his FIP.

    But let's be realistic about what the road ERA will be and let's recognize that Reds pitchers are at an advantage when it comes to their road stats because they don't have GABP included. Reds pitchers should be better on the road than the average pitcher is on the road.

    Homer's road effectiveness is almost entirely a function of allowing fewer homers with some lower BABIP rolled in (which is likely a function of park effect and randomness). There's nothing particularly special about Homer on the road. If you want to a call a high 3's non-GABP ERA a #2 starter, be my guest. But give any decent starter the Reds defense and look at his non GABP starts and I be Homer doesn't look very special.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-29-2012 at 01:55 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by Phhhl View Post
    It is certainly a compelling argument. As good as he was Friday night, he was torched by the Dodgers in his last home start. .
    I wouldn't exactly call it a torching. If the Reds had pulled him after 6 innings, his line would have been 6 IP, 1 run, 2 hits.

    And if Arredondo could have retired the feckless Mark Ellis, Homer still would have been in line for a quality start 6.2 IP, 3 R.

    And let's be clear about something. With the bullpen that the Reds have, they will be crazy not to take Homer out of the game in a close game at home after 6 IP. Sean Marshall faces Adrian Gonzalez to start that inning and the rally never begins. Also, if they are forced to get a mid-inning out in the 7th, Arredeondo should not be the first choice. Lecure or Broxton are better choices.

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    Re: David Schoenfield is on the Homer No. 2 starter 'wagon

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Maybe it is something mental. In GABP he simply doesn't trust his stuff as much and knows he has to be perfect because the place is unforgiving, thus he tries a little harder and makes a few more mistakes. On the road he doesn't worry so much about giving up the cheapies, doesn't try as hard and stays nice and smooth and makes fewer mistakes. No way at all to prove that. Just a thought.
    This seems like the obvious reason.


    Regardless, I really hope that someone is pointing this out in the front office to Dusty. This really makes the most sense (having him start game #2) and I support it 100%, regardless of results.


    ESPECIALLY if it's in San Francisco.


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