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Thread: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    With Homer's final (spectacular) start of the 2012 season complete, I think people are going to look at the ERA jump and nice finish to the season and think "Homer took a real step forward this year." But did he?

    Code:
    	GS	IP	K%	BB%	GB:FB	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	SIERA
    2011	22	132	18.9%	5.9%	1.03	11.5%	4.43	4.06	3.78
    2012	32	204	18.9%	6.1%	1.28	11.8%	3.75	4.06	3.90
    Obviously Homer pitched a full season, not missing a single start. We shouldn't downplay the value or importance of that. But beyond that, you have a guy who was remarkably similar in 2011 and 2012.

    So I'm curious, especially from the scouting types out there. Do you see Homer as having taken a step forward this year or was this just another season of the same Homer with some better ERA results?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    I'd say he is a successful #1 HS draft pick that the Reds have gotten a solid return on investment. What I have liked out of him with his recent success is trusting his stuff more in the second half of the year. I think that has translated into consistency over longer stretches during the season because his stuff is good enough to consistently get major league hitters out.

    He also made a nice bounceback, answering the bell after he had those dog starts in August, leaving folks to wonder if he was going to fade.

    Going forward, I don't think he is going to be an ace for the Reds, but that he will still take a step forward from here, assuming health of course. That would make him a solid member of a very good rotation. I think that anything more than that is simply icing on the cake.
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    I think the GB/FB is significant, and probably the cause for the drop in ERA. Clearly, the numbers don't match up, but It reflects a greater emphasis on getting weak contact when possible. From just watching him, that seems to be the biggest difference from previous years, he's trusting his defense more,
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    I think the forward step Homer took this year was a big one towards maturity on the mound. He just didn't seem to be as prone to the meltdown/big inning in 2012 as he was in the past.

    Instead of getting frustrated when something went wrong (and compounding it with a mistake pitch), he was more focused and able to keep pitching his game even after he put a runner or two on base. I can't really back that up with a laundry list of specific instances, but my sense is that Homer's just generally been way more consistent in terms of executing his pitches, regardless of game state.

    If there's anything to that, then it'd probably explain why ERA is the only real thing that changed from 2011, right? Same guy, stuff-wise. Just more apt to pitch out of a jam, rather than let an inning get out of hand.


    Rick

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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Give us his 2nd half results Rick.I've come to trust him more the 2nd half,he seems more in control of his game.Splits with Hanigan,without this year and 2nd half?
    Thanks.
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by FlightRick View Post
    I think the forward step Homer took this year was a big one towards maturity on the mound. He just didn't seem to be as prone to the meltdown/big inning in 2012 as he was in the past.

    Instead of getting frustrated when something went wrong (and compounding it with a mistake pitch), he was more focused and able to keep pitching his game even after he put a runner or two on base. I can't really back that up with a laundry list of specific instances, but my sense is that Homer's just generally been way more consistent in terms of executing his pitches, regardless of game state.

    If there's anything to that, then it'd probably explain why ERA is the only real thing that changed from 2011, right? Same guy, stuff-wise. Just more apt to pitch out of a jam, rather than let an inning get out of hand.

    Rick
    I think you're on to a bit of something here, plus I'll add a second piece that I think is intertwined with the above: increased durability.

    I see Homer's build as such that he looks like a more physical workhorse this year than ever. Increased bulk, increased muscle mass and perhaps not tiring as quickly as he may have been in the past. When a guy is in the midst of a potential big inning - including a high pitch inning - he's likely more prone to tire in that inning, which will lead to missing location and higher odds of sending a meatball to the plate to get crushed.

    Homer has done a much better job limiting big innings, probably as a result of being a bit more prepared both mentally and physically of getting himself out of a big inning before it blows up even further. If he's still able to hit his spot and still have ideal location on pitch #30 in inning with runners on base, then he'll be giving a better chance to get a guy out and escape a jam with less damage.

    FWIW, Homer is averaging over 6.1 IP per start this year compared to 6 IP per start last year. That's nothing to overlook on its own, either.
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    He has stranded more runners this year, but it isn't a big jump, it is the best rate of his career by about 2%. I do wonder though, if that counts just the runners he has stranded or if it also includes his runners that the bullpen stranded.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Does anybody know a place where you can get a distribution of innings by runs allowed? I'd like to see some data behind the 'limited his big innings' assertion. It's certainly a reasonable hypothesis, but I'd love to see the numbers.

    It's also possible that he got saved by his bullpen a few times where he hadn't in the past. Let's not forget how deep and effective the pen has been this year. Reds relievers have an MLB best 80.2% LOB rate, up from a solid but merely above average 76.4% last year. That 80.2% is the highest in MLB since the Braves bullpen put up an 80.0% in 2002. It's amazing what happens when you miss bats and keep the ball in the yard.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He has stranded more runners this year, but it isn't a big jump, it is the best rate of his career by about 2%. I do wonder though, if that counts just the runners he has stranded or if it also includes his runners that the bullpen stranded.
    The bigger difference is 12 unearned runs. 97 runs, 85 earned. Last year it was 68 runs, 65 earned (in line with the rest of his career).

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by defender View Post
    The bigger difference is 12 unearned runs. 97 runs, 85 earned. Last year it was 68 runs, 65 earned (in line with the rest of his career).
    Very interesting. I wish they would just do away with the error altogether. With how inconsistently applied they are, it's not really adding any value.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Does anybody know a place where you can get a distribution of innings by runs allowed? I'd like to see some data behind the 'limited his big innings' assertion. It's certainly a reasonable hypothesis, but I'd love to see the numbers.
    I believe BREF's event finder has it, but it's subscription-based. Give me a few though and I will calculate the standard deviation for runs scored in an inning for both 2011 and 2012.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Rick,

    I only looked at 2011 and 2012, but it appears there might be something to the 'big inning' thing.

    In 2011, the STDEV of runs allowed in any inning pitched was 1.15. This year, it's sitting at 0.91.

    So it would appear that his runs are being spread out a little more evenly.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Homer's line drive rate is down, 22.3% to 20%. Homer's' fly ball rate is down from 38.2% to 35.1% Homer's ground ball rate is up from 39.5% to 44.8%. He's become much more of a ground ball pitcher than previously, a big step.

    OPS against Homer with men in scoring position is down from .827 to .764. He seems to be more poised in high leverage situations this year, just from watching him.

    Not sure his stuff is any better than last year, but his health is better and his maturity as a pitcher seems better.

    I think he's gone from possible trade bait to a solid member of a very good rotation. Great to see, we've all followed him since he was drafted.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-29-2012 at 04:33 PM.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    With Homer's final (spectacular) start of the 2012 season complete, I think people are going to look at the ERA jump and nice finish to the season and think "Homer took a real step forward this year." But did he?

    Code:
    	GS	IP	K%	BB%	GB:FB	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	SIERA
    2011	22	132	18.9%	5.9%	1.03	11.5%	4.43	4.06	3.78
    2012	32	204	18.9%	6.1%	1.28	11.8%	3.75	4.06	3.90
    Obviously Homer pitched a full season, not missing a single start. We shouldn't downplay the value or importance of that. But beyond that, you have a guy who was remarkably similar in 2011 and 2012.

    So I'm curious, especially from the scouting types out there. Do you see Homer as having taken a step forward this year or was this just another season of the same Homer with some better ERA results?
    You're probably just looking at the effect of randomness.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Homer 2011 vs. 2012

    After he figured out that slider and stopped walking people last year, I'd say he's pretty much leveled off. So no he's not better, but I don't think you can overstate the fact that his talent is actually providing tangible value now. Homer's finally a 200 inning horse and great mid rotation starter in real life, not in some theoretical projection.


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