Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

[mbgrayson]

Per Mark Sheldon's Blog:

Generally speaking, you only use three starters in the first round. We won’t try to guess who’s not [in] but that’s a pretty good ace in the hole if you’ve got a guy getting hammered. You usually don’t let guys stick around to get hammered. It’s not like a regular season game.”
Although Baker did not say specifically, it would appear that Homer Bailey is that ace-in-the-hole.
“That is always the toughest part – who do you leave off?” Baker said. “I’ve seen guys get angry. I remember one time with Lasorda, there were a couple of guys upset with him.”

[Brutus]

Interesting. I didn't think they'd go that route this year with only one day off in the series.

[klw]

Latos, Bailey, Cueto. I'm good with that though I would be a bit nervous with Bailey in a game 5 in Cincy and I have no idea how this would play with the current rotation timing. My thought is that Latos Bailey would be great combo in SF and is not meant as a reflection on Cueto other than he would be the best of the lot at home.

[mbgrayson]

Latos, Bailey, Cueto. I'm good with that though I would be a bit nervous with Bailey in a game 5 in Cincy and I have no idea how this would play with the current rotation timing. My thought is that Latos Bailey would be great combo in SF and is not meant as a reflection on Cueto other than he would be the best of the lot at home.

I think the 'hint' was a rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, and then Latos.

[klw]

I think the 'hint' was a rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, and then Latos.

Yeah I got that but would prefer mine.

[vic715]

I guess Homer better just pitch another no-hitter.

[dougdirt]

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

[Brutus]

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

It makes perfect sense if they don't believe Latos is capable of pitching effectively on 3 days rest.

Arroyo has at least pitched eight times in his career on 3 days rest (with a 3.19 ERA). Latos has never done it.

Doing it this way means that Latos would also be available to pitch game one of the LCS if the Reds get through the first series.

[dougdirt]

It makes perfect sense if they don't believe Latos is capable of pitching effectively on 3 days rest.

Arroyo has at least pitched eight times in his career on 3 days rest (with a 3.19 ERA). Latos has never done it.

Doing it this way means that Latos would also be available to pitch game one of the LCS if the Reds get through the first series.

8 random games does nothing for me. I would rather have Homer Bailey on full rest than anyone else on short rest. Of course, the idea of anyone pitching on short rest has always confused me.

[Brutus]

8 random games does nothing for me. I would rather have Homer Bailey on full rest than anyone else on short rest. Of course, the idea of anyone pitching on short rest has always confused me.

I'd rather have Bronson Arroyo pitching a second game in Cincinnati than Homer Bailey. Bailey has a career 5.15 ERA in Cincinnati and almost exactly the same this year. I want no part of Bailey pitching in GABP in the playoffs at this point.

[George Foster]

Doing it this way means that Latos would also be available to pitch game one of the LCS if the Reds get through the first series.

You win the NLDS FIRST...don't plan starters for the NLCS..it will take care of itself. The other teams are in the same position as we are concerning starting pitching.

I don't understand Dusty. Homer should be pitching game #2...wow..

If we are the #1 seed which is still a very good possibility...Arroyo could be starting game #2 in Bush stadium...no thanks

[Brutus]

You win the NLDS FIRST...don't plan starters for the NLCS..it will take care of itself. The other teams are in the same position as we are concerning starting pitching.

I don't understand Dusty. Homer should be pitching game #2...wow..

If we are the #1 seed which is still a very good possibility...Arroyo could be starting game #2 in Bush stadium...no thanks

Homer was ruled out the minute they set the rotation for the end of the year. There was no way he was going to pitch the last game of the season and then pitch game two on three days rest. It just wasn't going to happen, so while I hoped for it like you did, I don't know why you're surprised by this.

[corkedbat]

And I was starting to be alright with having Dusty back next year. Glad this brought me back to my senses (but for heavens sake, no Bobby V!). For one thing, I'm not sure Homer can get warmed up in enough time to relieve (maybe to start an inning). I would think Arroyo would be better out of the pen.

[edabbs44]

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

I wonder if they are trying to line it up for Rd 2 to get Latos in Game 1. Just a shot in the dark.

[camisadelgolf]

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

Did you consider Earth?

Do you have any data that can verify whether having a soft-tosser between hard-tossers doesn't makes a difference? And if so, how big of a difference?

Do you have any data that states whether playoff experience doesn't make a positive difference in postseason performance?

Is it possible that there factors you're forgetting? For example, the starting pitchers will be on much shorter leashes, so maybe that ties into it. Latos has never pitched in the postseason, so maybe they're worried about keeping his arm fresh. Latos is heading into arbitration, and that could somehow tie into it. Maybe it relates to which catchers they're putting on the roster. Who knows?