It's not just about not starting Bailey in Game Two, what about Latos? Latos is a Giant killer in their park.
I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been stated but, Homer Bailey is one of just 12 pitchers in the NL to throw over 200 innings and have an ERA of 3.70 or better. Of those nine pitchers he is the only one on a playoff team that is not in his team's rotation
Last edited by redsfaninbsg; 10-04-2012 at 02:21 AM.
This is the ol Left Hander rounding third and heading for home.
It's pretty obvious Dusty wanted to split up Arroyo and Bailey because Arroyo gives up HRs in bunches and Bailey struggles at home. He didn't want to set up his rotation where he runs the risk of Arroyo/Bailey pitching back to back games at home all postseason. Now, if you want to make an argument for Bailey in game two over Arroyo, that's fair, but I don't have a problem with Dusty going with the vet in game 2.
Homer Bailey - 2012
Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52
Does anybody remember what Homer's recent quote was about Great American Ballpark and how small it is? Unless I misunderstood it or am remembering incorrectly, he sarcastically made it clear that he really doesn't like to pitch there and thinks the size of the place is a joke.
He should be starting a game on the road.
I haven't read any of this thread but this page, but here's my opinion based on stats I've read.
Latos supposedly has an e.r.a. at San Fran this year under 1.00.
Bailey supposdely has one of the top 5 road e.r.a.'s in all of MLB, and has been pitching very well lately.
I think game 1 should be Latos and game 2 (on the road) should be Bailey.
Not sure what Dusty has decided since I haven't read his decision yet.
"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
I'm just surprised that they would even think about going with a 3 man rotation. All 4 pitchers have been quite good this season. I would like to see Bailey pitching in SF, but going Cueto and then Latos is hard to argue. Of course that leads to Arroyo and Bailey at home but it's not like SF is full of power hitters...
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by klw; 10-04-2012 at 04:22 PM.
Is my math right?
I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65
I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84
In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)
In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).
Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.
So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.
Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!
Look at the bigger picture.
Cueto is the team's best pitcher. He is going to pitch Game 1 and be available for a later game in the series.
Arroyo's big flaw, throughout his career, is homers allowed. So pitching him in the big stadium makes sense. Bailey would also be a good choice. Only one can go.
Keep in mind that Arroyo is the experienced guy and if the Reds lose Game 1, I think pitching Bronson makes a lot of sense. He's a cool customer in tight spots.
Latos for Game three is obvious. He had a tremendous year, can handle GABP, and with Cueto/Arroyo in SF Mat is the logical Game 3 pitcher.
Game four? Probably Homer. Not a perfect fit, but he can be on a short leash, the bullpen is fully available. And if the Reds are behind there's a chance we get Cueto back starting or even relieving in an emergency.
There are other ways to do it, but this makes some sense to me.