Maybe there's a concern about overworking Bailey. Here are his innings pitched per season:
2012 208.0
2011 162.0
2010 132.0
2009 203.0
2008 147.2
2007 120.2
2006 138.2
As you can see, he's already at a career high. The last time he pitched nearly this much, he battled a slew of arm problems the following season. On top of that, he has pitched significantly more than he did the two years prior. Also, he's pitching better than he ever has over an extended period of time, so wouldn't that imply he could be due for a regression pretty soon? I just don't think he's as much of a slam-dunk choice over the alternatives as people are claiming.
Get MLBtraderumors Reds updates on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Reds-R...33794710005587
http://i.imgur.com/1bCKpaH.jpg
Homer Bailey, asked why he''s been so much better away from GABP this season: "I’m not pitching in a Little League park on the road."
So, despite Home's obvious bad attitude about pitching at home, the Reds should use a precious playoff game to attempt to teach him that what he has actually experienced in his much poorer home game performances is actually random variability.
Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!
Well, it's obviously too late now, but Bailey could've been skipped altogether last night in a meaningless game and gone out and pitched game 2 in San Fran, since he's much better on the road.
I would have gone...
Latos - Game 1
Bailey - Game 2
Cueto - Game 3
Latos - Game 4
Arroyo/Bailey - Game 5 if necessary
You would have pitched Latos on 3 days rest notwithstanding that he has never done so and the history since the 1990's of pitchers doing so is very poor? And then pitch Bailey (who many are saying shouldn't pitch at home) also on 3 days rest?
If you are going to pitch Bailey 2nd on the raod, then you have to go with Arroyo in the 4th game, and your first game starter in game #5.
With your rotation, assuming Arroyo goes #5, you have used the same pitchers as Baker, only gotten Latos pitching with 3 days rest. Or if Bailey starts #5, you've managed to get an extra Bailey start at home on 3 days rest.
I can't see how that is an improvement.
There is only two viable scenarios, depending on whether you want/mind Bailey pitching on the road.
Cueto/Latos
Bailey
Latos/Cueto
Arroyo
Cueto/Latos.
Cueto/Latos
Arroyo
Latos/Cueto
Bailey
Cueto/Latos
It's clear all year that Baker wants Arroyo pitching between Cueto and Latos.
Consider the flip side though..
If it goes to 4 games, the Giants will probably throw their #4 guy out there.
That's either the lefty Zito or the struggling Linecum against Homer. (Am I missing another option?)
I like those odds very much, even if the game is at the GAB.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
From Lance McAllister on twitter
Jon Miller, voice Giants, just told Eddie and Tracy that he thinks the Giants get Latos in Game 2 if #Reds lose Game 1.
It of course assumes there is a game 4 and 5, but anyway. Yep, I'd do it in a short series where the first 2 games are on the road against one of the great home pitching staffs. Bailey is clearly better on the road and I like Latos pitching in SF as well. Even though Bailey is in unchartered waters in terms of innings pitch, he's not a spring chicken here. Latos is a little dicier, but I have faith he could do it in 1 series. I would maybe considering throwing Arroyo out game 4 and Latos game 5, to give him that extra day of rest. It would also setup Cueto, potentially, to start the next series should the Reds make it.
But the idea here is to hope by throwing out the best guys first that you'll end the series quicker and not have to go to game 5.
If what Jon Miller set forth is true, that the Reds would put out Latos in game 2 if they lose game 1, I could be okay with that rotation as well.
I think mixing in a different style of starter, had an impact. While pitching Bailey in GAB may not be ideal, I think game 2 was the best spot for Arroyo.
Basing your playoff rotation around your #4 starters inability to pitch at home is not sound strategy. Homer is a good pitcher. I think coming home with a two game lead is a good spot for him. About as little pressure as you can have in a playoff start and a home crowd to back him up.
Kind of funny that prior to the series the biggest concerns were opening with two on the road, Bailey at home, and whether the offense would awaken. Well home field certainly was no advantage and Bailey was great. Oh well.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |