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Thread: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

  1. #46
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Puzzling to some extent. I mean, I'm glad but does this mean that Cueto would pitch a hypothetical game 5? Bailey is obviously better on the road than he is at home. I'd much rather flip him with Arroyo's spot, if that's what Dusty is set on.
    I'm not sure how it's puzzling. It keeps everyone on normal rest.
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  3. #47
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    It's not just about not starting Bailey in Game Two, what about Latos? Latos is a Giant killer in their park.

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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been stated but, Homer Bailey is one of just 12 pitchers in the NL to throw over 200 innings and have an ERA of 3.70 or better. Of those nine pitchers he is the only one on a playoff team that is not in his team's rotation
    Last edited by redsfaninbsg; 10-04-2012 at 02:21 AM.
    This is the ol Left Hander rounding third and heading for home.

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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I'm not sure how it's puzzling. It keeps everyone on normal rest.
    It's puzzling because Bailey hasn't been so great at home. Would have rather seem him pitch game 2 in San Fran and either skipped last night's start or have him go out after 5 innings.

  6. #50
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    It's not just about not starting Bailey in Game Two, what about Latos? Latos is a Giant killer in their park.
    Latos has a 3.18 ERA in GABP this year. Bottom line is he's pretty good in any park.

    It's pretty obvious Dusty wanted to split up Arroyo and Bailey because Arroyo gives up HRs in bunches and Bailey struggles at home. He didn't want to set up his rotation where he runs the risk of Arroyo/Bailey pitching back to back games at home all postseason. Now, if you want to make an argument for Bailey in game two over Arroyo, that's fair, but I don't have a problem with Dusty going with the vet in game 2.
    Last edited by reds44; 10-04-2012 at 04:00 AM.
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Puzzling to some extent. I mean, I'm glad but does this mean that Cueto would pitch a hypothetical game 5?
    Why would pitching Bailey on normal rest vs. pitching Cueto on 3 days rest be puzzling?

    And yes, it means Cueto pitches game #5. Who else? Leake would be the only other available starter with enough rest, assuming he makes the roster.

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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Latest from Sheldon on Twitter:
    If Dusty starts Bailey at home, that's incompetence.

    Homer Bailey - 2012

    Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
    Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52

    Does anybody remember what Homer's recent quote was about Great American Ballpark and how small it is? Unless I misunderstood it or am remembering incorrectly, he sarcastically made it clear that he really doesn't like to pitch there and thinks the size of the place is a joke.

    He should be starting a game on the road.

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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    I haven't read any of this thread but this page, but here's my opinion based on stats I've read.

    Latos supposedly has an e.r.a. at San Fran this year under 1.00.
    Bailey supposdely has one of the top 5 road e.r.a.'s in all of MLB, and has been pitching very well lately.

    I think game 1 should be Latos and game 2 (on the road) should be Bailey.

    Not sure what Dusty has decided since I haven't read his decision yet.
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    I'm just surprised that they would even think about going with a 3 man rotation. All 4 pitchers have been quite good this season. I would like to see Bailey pitching in SF, but going Cueto and then Latos is hard to argue. Of course that leads to Arroyo and Bailey at home but it's not like SF is full of power hitters...

    Bum

  11. #55
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfaninbsg View Post
    I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been stated but, Homer Bailey is one of just 12 pitchers in the NL to throw over 200 innings and have an ERA of 3.70 or better. Of those nine pitchers he is the only one on a playoff team that is not in his team's rotation
    So the Reds had 3 of the 12 pitchers in baseball with 200 innings and an ERA under 3.70? AWESOME. Arroyo almost made it four.

  12. #56
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    If Dusty starts Bailey at home, that's incompetence.

    Homer Bailey - 2012

    Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
    Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52

    Does anybody remember what Homer's recent quote was about Great American Ballpark and how small it is? Unless I misunderstood it or am remembering incorrectly, he sarcastically made it clear that he really doesn't like to pitch there and thinks the size of the place is a joke.

    He should be starting a game on the road.
    Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results:
    Code:
    	K%	BB	HR/FB	BABIP
    Home:	17.8	6.3	18.4%	.322
    Road:	20.7	5.6	 4.5%	.259
    Yes, there's some GABP effect there. There's also an awful lot of randomness.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #57
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So the Reds had 3 of the 12 pitchers in baseball with 200 innings and an ERA under 3.70? AWESOME. Arroyo almost made it four.
    Well, if I am counting correctly they have 4 of the 14 in the NL under 3.75 and 200+ innings. 4 of 23 in MLB.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...alse/minip/200
    Last edited by klw; 10-04-2012 at 04:22 PM.

  14. #58
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Is my math right?

    I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65

    I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84

    In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)

    In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).

    Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.

    So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.

    Right?
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  15. #59
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    Is my math right?

    I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65

    I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84

    In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)

    In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).

    Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.

    So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.

    Right?
    Right. (I did not check your math)

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    Re: Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

    Look at the bigger picture.

    Cueto is the team's best pitcher. He is going to pitch Game 1 and be available for a later game in the series.

    Arroyo's big flaw, throughout his career, is homers allowed. So pitching him in the big stadium makes sense. Bailey would also be a good choice. Only one can go.

    Keep in mind that Arroyo is the experienced guy and if the Reds lose Game 1, I think pitching Bronson makes a lot of sense. He's a cool customer in tight spots.

    Latos for Game three is obvious. He had a tremendous year, can handle GABP, and with Cueto/Arroyo in SF Mat is the logical Game 3 pitcher.

    Game four? Probably Homer. Not a perfect fit, but he can be on a short leash, the bullpen is fully available. And if the Reds are behind there's a chance we get Cueto back starting or even relieving in an emergency.

    There are other ways to do it, but this makes some sense to me.


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