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Thread: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

  1. #871
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    People say a strikeout is like any other out.

    True.

    If Drew Stubbs fans 200 times, these are no worse than 200 pop ups.

    True.

    But if Drew Stubbs hit the ball 100 of those at bats, that would provide 100 additional opportunities for success.

    The point is not the IMPACT of the strikeout. It's the lost OPPORTUNITY when you don't hit the ball.
    Of course if Drew struck out 100 less times his hitting would be better, as a number of those 100 balls in play would find themselves as hits.

    But what matters little is if those 100 extra strike outs were turned into other outs.

    A .700 OPS Stubbs with 100 K's is really no different than a .700 OPS Stubbs with 200 K's.

    A .player who strikes out a lot doesn't suddenly become a lesser hitter in the playoffs just because he strikes out a lot.

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  3. #872
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    I wasn't impressed by Sandoval last night. Two of those HRs he hit were rally killers.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post

    A .player who strikes out a lot doesn't suddenly become a lesser hitter in the playoffs just because he strikes out a lot.
    It's not the playoffs. It's the caliber of pitching in the playoffs.

    I think Verducci's point, with which I agree, is that when facing tough playoff pitching the ability to make contact, to use the whole field, to avoid strikeouts, becomes critical.

    There are exceptions. Last night Verlander didn't have it and the long ball cost him.

    But as a general matter, I do agree that contact hitters have an important role. I think the Reds could use more of them.

  5. #874
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    No. I mean like the last two World Series had low strikeout teams on both sides.

    I mean that NO GOOD can come from swinging and missing.

    I mean that the Reds should look at offenses like the Cards and Giants and ask themselves why these teams do well in the post-season.

    And the Reds should read Tom Verducci's article on this subject in Sports Illustrated.

    That's what I mean.
    You can find just as many examples of the opposite. The Rays in 2008 were in the top five in baseball in strikeouts. The Phillies were also in the top 10. The Rockies in 2007 were sixth. The Tigers were in the top 10 in 2006. In 2004, Boston was 3rd in all of baseball in strikeouts where St. Louis was also in the top 10. Point is, there is no evidence that strikeouts dictate postseason success based on the World Series participants in two years.

    I'm not big on strikeouts. And I've always thought the purpose of having a bat in the hand is to hit a baseball. So make no mistake, I think there is something to be said for putting the ball in play (though ironically you don't like Chris Heisey for taking that approach). But I see no evidence whatsoever that strikeouts have a big impact on who advances in the postseason.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post

    I'm not big on strikeouts. And I've always thought the purpose of having a bat in the hand is to hit a baseball. So make no mistake, I think there is something to be said for putting the ball in play (though ironically you don't like Chris Heisey for taking that approach). But I see no evidence whatsoever that strikeouts have a big impact on who advances in the postseason.
    Chris Heisey has a lifetime 23.8% strikeout rate. Whatever his approach is, he doesn't make contact often enough. And his BB rate is low, so he doesn't compensate that way.

    And the point of the Verducci piece is that in the CURRENT environment, which he calls an age of strikeouts, starters and relievers are missing bats, and so contact has become a premium skill. As has hitting to all fields. So older examples from several years ago are less pertinent.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-25-2012 at 12:01 PM.

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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Chris Heisey has a lifetime 23.8% strikeout rate. Whatever his approach is, he doesn't make contact often enough. And his BB rate is low, so he doesn't compensate that way.

    And the point of the Verducci piece is that in the CURRENT environment, which he calls an age of strikeouts, starters and relievers are missing bats, and so contact has become a premium skill. As has hitting to all fields. So older examples from several years ago are less pertinent.

    I have had some back and forth with you on hitters like Heisey.....and I know he is frustrating but he is not going to be a pitch tasking fool anytime soon. He is a poor man's Jeff Franceour basically.

    I do agree and I had run ins with SteelSD about SO back in 2004-05...... and how Dunn and Griffey could K all they wanted when they can produce like they do... but players like Jason LaRue or Stubbs....with their OK power really, I mean Stubbs can hit what maybe 20 homers a year?? and for that i should be OK with his K's when he wastes a better tool in his speed. If this was Mark Reynolds I would understand but this is Stubbs... a guy who would be a great leadoff hitter like Baker wants....but it is impossible for him to do so beacuse he would rather not choke up with 2 strikes.....and try and make contact which would give a guy with his speed a better chance to get on base. All beacuse of his power?

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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    I have had some back and forth with you on hitters like Heisey.....and I know he is frustrating but he is not going to be a pitch tasking fool anytime soon. He is a poor man's Jeff Franceour basically.

    I do agree and I had run ins with SteelSD about SO back in 2004-05...... and how Dunn and Griffey could K all they wanted when they can produce like they do... but players like Jason LaRue or Stubbs....with their OK power really, I mean Stubbs can hit what maybe 20 homers a year?? and for that i should be OK with his K's when he wastes a better tool in his speed. If this was Mark Reynolds I would understand but this is Stubbs... a guy who would be a great leadoff hitter like Baker wants....but it is impossible for him to do so beacuse he would rather not choke up with 2 strikes.....and try and make contact which would give a guy with his speed a better chance to get on base. All beacuse of his power?
    Stubbs choking up would mean that he takes strikes and swings through pitches with his hands moved away from the knob of the bat. It is a weakness, and I don't think "then choke up, dummy" is going to make much of a difference. He is just not a very good hitter who has enough power to run into one every once in awhile.

    In other words, it isn't just something fixable like "approach," its lack of skill, from what I've seen.
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Chris Heisey has a lifetime 23.8% strikeout rate. Whatever his approach is, he doesn't make contact often enough. And his BB rate is low, so he doesn't compensate that way.

    And the point of the Verducci piece is that in the CURRENT environment, which he calls an age of strikeouts, starters and relievers are missing bats, and so contact has become a premium skill. As has hitting to all fields. So older examples from several years ago are less pertinent.
    Regardless, you've stated very clearly that philosophically you don't care for hitters swinging early in the count. So you can't have it both ways... if you don't like strikeouts, then you need to give a little on swinging early. Because like it or not, if you are patient and go up there taking pitches, you're going to strike out a lot more generally speaking.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #879
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Stubbs choking up would mean that he takes strikes and swings through pitches with his hands moved away from the knob of the bat. It is a weakness, and I don't think "then choke up, dummy" is going to make much of a difference. He is just not a very good hitter who has enough power to run into one every once in awhile.

    In other words, it isn't just something fixable like "approach," its lack of skill, from what I've seen.

    Then he needs to go or else Baker will never get off him. But i guess batting 8th is tolerable.... even vs LHP.

  11. #880
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Regardless, you've stated very clearly that philosophically you don't care for hitters swinging early in the count. So you can't have it both ways... if you don't like strikeouts, then you need to give a little on swinging early. Because like it or not, if you are patient and go up there taking pitches, you're going to strike out a lot more generally speaking.
    I think you may be confusing my views on Heisey with my views generally.

    I have nothing against a hitter with good plate discipline swinging early in the count.

    Heisey had a 66.9% first strike ratio according to Fangraphs. That's worse than all other Reds except for pitchers, Negron, Phipps, and Mesoraco.

    I have criticized Chris' early count swinging because he appears overly aggressive on the first pitch. As a result he is often behind in the count, he strikes out much, he walks rarely. Not a contact hitter, subpar plate discipline. (Good power and hustle, though.)

  12. #881
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    If Sandoval hit three home runs, just imagine what a Real Panda could do. The Reds need to get on this now.
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  13. #882
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    I have changed my mind, completely.

    A 180.

    I think Bruce Bochy is a baseball genius, with mad skills.

  14. #883
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    I have changed my mind, completely.

    A 180.

    I think Bruce Bochy is a baseball genius, with mad skills.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=18755

    "I know that almost everything in baseball can be quantified, and there has been a lot of interesting sabermetric studies done," Lopez said. "Sometimes, though, playing winning baseball goes beyond the numbers. It might not sound like a logical argument, but there are times where you have to pass the eye test, too, rather just statistical analysis. That is the way we have been in the postseason. What we have been able to do when our backs have been against the wall is shift the pressure away from. We attack it as if the pressure is on the opponent because they are the ones who still have to win one more game to clinch the series. After awhile, it just becomes second nature and you start to believe that you won't lose."

    San Francisco is certainly that type of team right now. That is why right-hander Matt Cain, valedictorian of the Class of 2002 at Houston High School in Germantown, Tenn., also can't give a fact-based explanation as to why the Giants have been able to play so well in times of great duress.

    "I have no idea," Cain said with a smile. "Maybe because we don't know any better?"

    However, the all of the Giants players say that manager Bruce Bochy's steady hand has played a major role in their success. Bochy led the Giants to a World Series title two years ago, their first since 1954, which was four years before the franchise moved from New York to San Francisco.

    Bochy doesn't always get mentioned among the game's best managers. He is an old-school type who bases his decision more on baseball acumen and gut instinct than by consulting reams of statistics. However, the 57-year-old has lasted 18 years as a major-league manager, including 12 with the Padres, before moving up the coast to the Giants. He has compiled a 1,454-1,444 record and has won three NL pennants and six division titles.

    "He's the best," Giants right-handed starter Ryan Vogelsong said. "Look at how we've been able survive some pretty big blows this season."

    The Giants lost closer Brian Wilson early in the season to Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery. Left fielder Melky Cabrera was suspended for 50 games on Aug. 15 for testing positive for excessive testosterone, ending a breakout season in which he hit .346/.390/.516 in 501 plate appearances with 5.1 WARP and a .332 TAv.

    Bochy mixed and matched his bullpen, going with Santiago Casilla as the closer for most of the season, occasionally sprinkling in Lopez and Sergio Romo in save situations. He chose to go with Romo late in the season and into the postseason. Bochy also decided to stick with Gregor Blanco in left field even though the end of Cabrera's 50-game suspension coincided with the beginning of the NLCS.

    "You have to deal with injuries or things that may happen, like Melky's situation," Bochy said. "What's important, as I've said many times, is not that it happens; it's how you deal with it. These guys were like focused forward. They never talked about it, they never dwelled on it, they never made excuses. Different guys helped pick us up when something did happen. You look how the bullpen by committee worked when Wilson went down and Blanco's play out in left field. It's been fun to watch how these guys have just done a good job of picking each other up."

    However, Bochy is quick to deflect any credit for guiding the Giants this far. Bochy has never been one to seek the spotlight, and he is staying true to himself in one of his finest moments.

    "It's all about the players," Bochy said. "I'm not just trying to shrug that off. I mean, it's great when you hear good things said about you, I guess. The players would feel the same. But you can't believe all the good things or the bad things, and that goes with managing, too, just second‑guessing things like that. My philosophy is to let the players go out there and play to win, just leave it on the field. I don't want players to be afraid to make a mistake, and I want them to know if they do make a mistake, hey, that's fine, as long as you're doing it in the right way, and that's being aggressive and trying to win a ballgame."

  15. #884
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think you may be confusing my views on Heisey with my views generally.

    I have nothing against a hitter with good plate discipline swinging early in the count.

    Heisey had a 66.9% first strike ratio according to Fangraphs. That's worse than all other Reds except for pitchers, Negron, Phipps, and Mesoraco.

    I have criticized Chris' early count swinging because he appears overly aggressive on the first pitch. As a result he is often behind in the count, he strikes out much, he walks rarely. Not a contact hitter, subpar plate discipline. (Good power and hustle, though.)
    You're contradicting yourself. You're basically saying that you don't have a problem with a hitter with "good plate discipline" swinging early, but then you proceed to criticize Heisey for how many times he's swung early because he "appears overly aggressive on the first pitch."

    You are, in fact, essentially defining "plate discipline" as whether a hitter swings early in the count. And here's the thing: Chris Heisey's O-Swing% this year was 29%. That's actually slightly above-average, as the average is typically 30-32% in a given year. So discipline, as defined by swinging at good pitches, is not at all a weakness of Heisey. He is certainly more aggressive at swinging at balls in the zone, but if you're so concerned by strikeouts, then that should be a concession you're willing to make.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard watching....

    I think Kc61's prognosis -- get some more contact hitters -- is correct. But I think the strikeout discussion is a distraction.

    The Reds had 69 more HR's than the Giants. But the Giants scored 49 more runs.

    Yes, OBP carries the difference (.327 to .315). But the Reds and Giants had almost the exact same number of walks. (Also the Reds had 18 more HBP).

    The difference is hits, a 118 fewer than the Giants to be precise.
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