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Thread: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

  1. #886
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    It's about as reliable as home field advantage.
    Which means... it means nothing.

    Which is why I don't understand how a team with HFA can be "butthurt."


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  3. #887
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    It's about as reliable as home field advantage.
    LOL

  4. #888
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    I love how Cards fans when they lose.

  5. #889
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    You kill me man.

    I figured since you were "stats boy" you'd understand the run expectancy in that situation, which would have still led to a loss.
    Okay, Mr. Smarty pants, lol.

    In the Braves game, the bad call lowered the runs expected in that inning by 1.2 runs. So it was extremely likely that at least one run would score, making it 6-4, at least. That's enough to make it meaningful, as it changed the game entirely.

    In tonight's game, the bad call raised the Giants runs expected by .2 runs, which clearly didn't change the game in any meaningful way. What changed it, was Miller's inability to get anyone out.

  6. #890
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Okay, Mr. Smarty pants, lol.

    In the Braves game, the bad call lowered the runs expected in that inning by 1.2 runs. So it was extremely likely that at least one run would score, making it 6-4, at least. That's enough to make it meaningful, as it changed the game entirely.

    In tonight's game, the bad call raised the Giants runs expected by .2 runs, which clearly didn't change the game in any meaningful way. What changed it, was Miller's inability to get anyone out.
    Which is more again? 6... or 4?

  7. #891
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    Historical run expectancy tells us the Braves still lose.
    No it doesn't. Runs expectancy only tells us what's likely in that one inning. An extra run or two changes the entire game.

    You are completely misusing and misunderstanding runs expectancy. It's really Stats 101

  8. #892
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    If team A scored 6 in a game, and team B scored 4, who would win?

  9. #893
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Game might have been closer if that defensive wiz Allen Craig didn't look so lost wanting to come get the Crawford ball then going back on the foul side of first then falling over the bag trying to get the throw where its always going to be.

  10. #894
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    If team A scored 6 in a game, and team B scored 4, who would win?
    It changes the entire game, who pitches, who bats, how the entire game is played.

    Again, any Saber person who actually understands runs expectancy would never make such an amateurish mistake that you are making.

  11. #895
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    It changes the entire game, who pitches, who bats, how the entire game is played.

    Again, any Saber person who actually understands runs expectancy would never make such an amateurish mistake that you are making.
    Like assuming a 4 run swing on a play that historically leads to 1.8 runs?

  12. #896
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by Rijo's Ghost View Post
    Like assuming a 4 run swing on a play that historically leads to 1.8 runs?
    I'm not assuming anything, you are. All I am saying that the call changed the game and lessened the odds of the Braves winning that game. You are the one assuming that the Braves would have lost even if the right call was made.

  13. #897
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Funny...I visited Cards Talk tonight when the score was 5-1 & every single person said the only reason the Giants got to 5 runs was luck..

  14. #898
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    I'm not assuming anything, you are.[
    oh...
    All I am saying that the call changed the game
    Wait, what?

  15. #899
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrolen View Post
    Funny...I visited Cards Talk tonight when the score was 5-1 & every single person said the only reason the Giants got to 5 runs was luck..
    Biased homers look ridiculous don't they?

  16. #900
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    Re: Postseason Scoreboard Watching

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrolen View Post
    Funny...I visited Cards Talk tonight when the score was 5-1 & every single person said the only reason the Giants got to 5 runs was luck..
    Was that before or after they thought St Louis resident and former Cards announcer Joe Buck wants them to lose since everyone is out to get the Cardinals.


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