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Thread: Offseason extensions?

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  1. #1
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    Offseason extensions?

    Who's next?

    I'd like to see one or both of Bailey and Latos extended? Anyone else?

  2. #2
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.
    I'd like to have Ludwick back for a couple of year's but if he hits the open market, I'm afraid his value will inflate. After Hamilton and maybe Swisher, there's not much in the way of offense or OFers out there. I think the best hope might be to approach him within days of the Reds final postseason game and hope he's feeling charitable toward the Reds/Jocketty.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I'd like to have Ludwick back for a couple of year's but if he hits the open market, I'm afraid his value will inflate. After Hamilton and maybe Swisher, there's not much in the way of offense or OFers out there. I think the best hope might be to approach him within days of the Reds final postseason game and hope he's feeling charitable toward the Reds/Jocketty.
    Isn't Michael Bourn a FA? Would be a perfect addition for us. Not that it should preclude us from re-signing Ludwick to a reasonable deal. I'd wait on the pitchers for one more season at least.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 10-09-2012 at 10:26 AM.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Isn't Michael Bourn a FA? Would be a perfect addition for us. Not that it should preclude us from re-signing Ludwick to a reasonable deal. I'd wait on the pitchers for one more season at least.
    Not with the money Bourn is going to want. CF is open for Billy Hamilton. Maybe we'll need a one year stopgap if the FO decides current in-house options like Stubbs and/or Heisey can't fill that role. For 1 year (and maybe less), I think they can.

    If we're going to acquire a LF because Ludwick signs elsewhere, Justin Upton is my target.
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  6. #6
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    I think a lot of what may happen in LF depends on both Rolen and Ludwick. If Rolen decides to come back and seems OK with a 300 PA role at 3B, I'd guess that Frazier may get the nod in LF. The Reds might try to add a lefty hitter who could play LF or maybe 3B when Rolen sits with Frazier playing the other spot. I'd guess Xavier Paul might be in the mix along with Heisey, but I'd hope they bring another player in as well. It doesn't need to be a star, but somebody who could get 200 PAs off the bench and play for weeks at a time if Rolen goes down.

    As far as extensions go, Latos is the guy they should lock-up. I'd try to do a Cueto style deal buying out Arb and a year of FA with an option for another. I'd see if Ludwick would be open to coming back at his option price if they add another year, if not, I'd try to squeeze another year from Rolen and move on to Frazier and other options. Not sure what I'd do on Bailey. I'd love to lock him up, but wouldn't go higher than 3 years, $15 Million. Might add a $1` Million more as an option buy-out if he'd agree to a 4th year option for below $7 Million for that fourth year. If he seems intent on going for bigger money, I might explore trade options with Homer. His value is probably as high as it will get.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Bailey Latos Ludwick in that order. Wouldn't go more than 2 years (or $10-$12MM) with Ludwick.

    If Bailey can perform in the postseason like he has the rest of the year, he may finally be the pitcher we always hoped he could be, and I'd get him locked up for the next 3 years. Latos will likely be an even better pitcher but we have more time with him already and his maturity issues could pose a risk under a long term deal. Still though, wouldn't mind keeping him in Cincy for the better part of the next decade. We know he'll be here at least the next three years.

    Leake might be worth considering if we could "buy low" here, although he seems more replaceable- especially with Cingrani and Corcino knocking on the door.
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  8. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Latos.

    I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

    If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

    Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?

    Code:
    	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	
    2010	66	19.4	7.6	1.23	4.22	3.90	3.95
    2011   186	21.0	6.6	1.31	4.04	3.67	4.55
    2012   198	19.8	6.6	1.13	3.95	3.97	3.72
    I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

    The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-08-2012 at 05:09 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Latos.

    I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

    If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

    Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?

    Code:
    	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	
    2010	66	19.4	7.6	1.23	4.22	3.90	3.95
    2011   186	21.0	6.6	1.31	4.04	3.67	4.55
    2012   198	19.8	6.6	1.13	3.95	3.97	3.72
    I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

    The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?
    To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

    I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

    The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

    I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

    The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.
    Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.

  11. #11
    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.
    I'm with you there. Latos obviously has a temper but he's nowhere near a Carlos Zambrano type. And him jumping up saying "Me, me!" when Cueto went down earned him a ton of respect from me.

    I think you absolutely lock Latos up and if the right deal can be done I'd have no problem locking up homer.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.
    Agree with the last part. There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here). The only reason I put Bailey ahead of Latos is the fact that we already have Latos under team control for the next 3 (4?) seasons.

    I'll reiterate that I would not go more than 3/$27MM with Homer Bailey. He would still be quite tradeable with that contract, barring a major injury.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Agree with the last part. There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here). The only reason I put Bailey ahead of Latos is the fact that we already have Latos under team control for the next 3 (4?) seasons.

    I'll reiterate that I would not go more than 3/$27MM with Homer Bailey. He would still be quite tradeable with that contract, barring a major injury.
    I would be very surprised if the Reds offered that kind of contract to Bailey. I don't think he is going to get more than $5M this year in arbitration. That means you are probably paying him quite a bit more than he is going to get in arbitration unless he goes ahead and turns into a Cy Young contender.

  14. #14
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here)
    Honestly? Does this board really need more open ended cryptic messages?

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

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