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Thread: Offseason extensions?

  1. #1
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    Offseason extensions?

    Who's next?

    I'd like to see one or both of Bailey and Latos extended? Anyone else?

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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.
    I'd like to have Ludwick back for a couple of year's but if he hits the open market, I'm afraid his value will inflate. After Hamilton and maybe Swisher, there's not much in the way of offense or OFers out there. I think the best hope might be to approach him within days of the Reds final postseason game and hope he's feeling charitable toward the Reds/Jocketty.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Bailey Latos Ludwick in that order. Wouldn't go more than 2 years (or $10-$12MM) with Ludwick.

    If Bailey can perform in the postseason like he has the rest of the year, he may finally be the pitcher we always hoped he could be, and I'd get him locked up for the next 3 years. Latos will likely be an even better pitcher but we have more time with him already and his maturity issues could pose a risk under a long term deal. Still though, wouldn't mind keeping him in Cincy for the better part of the next decade. We know he'll be here at least the next three years.

    Leake might be worth considering if we could "buy low" here, although he seems more replaceable- especially with Cingrani and Corcino knocking on the door.
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  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Latos.

    I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

    If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

    Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?

    Code:
    	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	
    2010	66	19.4	7.6	1.23	4.22	3.90	3.95
    2011   186	21.0	6.6	1.31	4.04	3.67	4.55
    2012   198	19.8	6.6	1.13	3.95	3.97	3.72
    I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

    The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-08-2012 at 05:09 PM.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Latos.

    I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

    If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

    Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?

    Code:
    	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	
    2010	66	19.4	7.6	1.23	4.22	3.90	3.95
    2011   186	21.0	6.6	1.31	4.04	3.67	4.55
    2012   198	19.8	6.6	1.13	3.95	3.97	3.72
    I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

    The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?
    To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

    I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

    The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

    I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

    The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.
    Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Latos































    Bailey
























































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  10. #9
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.
    I'm with you there. Latos obviously has a temper but he's nowhere near a Carlos Zambrano type. And him jumping up saying "Me, me!" when Cueto went down earned him a ton of respect from me.

    I think you absolutely lock Latos up and if the right deal can be done I'd have no problem locking up homer.
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Since the Reds are on abudget, it's unlikely we should try and afford Bailey on a long term deal. It's a question of managing our budget.

    Better to cash in this year and trade him for some young talent. If he has a decent playoff, he'll bring very good value. We can likely get a cheaper, younger replacement in the deal.

    Bailey's main difference this year is health. I have little interest in paying him $10M+ to cover some FA years.

    It may depend on whether the Reds want to make Chapman a stater. And if Bailey will sign a 3 year plus an option deal (our option), I'd considir that deal if it didn't include a no trade clause. Wew could then flip him after next year if uit made sense and we had a young pitcher to take his place.

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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Since the Reds are on abudget, it's unlikely we should try and afford Bailey on a long term deal. It's a question of managing our budget.
    I'd argue that the money given to Madson, Massett, and Bray would more than cover the LTC cash of Latos and Bailey this season.

    (Having said that, I understand fully well that money may have already been spent. I am assuming the playoff monies will off-set much of the budget concerns.)
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  13. #12
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Well when it comes to budget setting don't forget the extra national tv money is 25 to 30 million per year, IIRC.

    Discussed here I think:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ight=deal+espn
    Last edited by klw; 10-08-2012 at 07:47 PM.

  14. #13
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    I wouldn't have any issues getting Latos locked up.... This year or next....

    Him and Dallas seem to love the Cincinnati area...
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsMan3203 View Post
    I wouldn't have any issues getting Latos locked up.... This year or next....

    Him and Dallas seem to love the Cincinnati area...
    It might cost more to lock up Dallas than Mat
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    Re: Offseason extensions?

    Broxton and Rolen will be entering FA after the year-that's about 12 million in payflex if not signed. The question is-how much will the arbitration raises be and how much will the Reds raise payroll?


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