Turn Off Ads?
Page 7 of 8 FirstFirst ... 345678 LastLast
Results 91 to 105 of 106

Thread: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

  1. #91
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,572

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    You're right, they're not the same pitchers this season. Take Leake's bat out of the equation, and Bailey has been worth about a full win more than Leake. Bailey has also been pitching in a way Leake has never pitched before for September/October. Bailey > Leake

    I like Leake. I think for a #5 guy, he's good. I think he can continue to improve in the future. But Leake at GAB during the 2012 playoffs scare the living daylights out of me and apparently most of RZ.
    I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #92
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    8,843

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.
    Bailey pitched 208 innings to Leake's 179. 30 innings is more is significant IMO. There's certainly more value in those extra innings.

    Further, let's not pretend that the gap in their BB/9 is much different (2.25 to 2.06). Bailey's K rate was noticeably better than Leake's K numbers. Bailey's ERA+ is 115 to Leake's 93.

    Bailey > Leake

  4. #93
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,084

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.
    Only because you championed this stat.

    Mike Leake OPS against .805
    Bailey .718

  5. #94
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,712

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Only because you championed this stat.

    Mike Leake OPS against .805
    Bailey .718
    To be fair, no one is suggesting that Leake's actually results are as good as Bailey, only that if you are believer of things like xFIP, he compares favourably.

  6. #95
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,572

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Bailey pitched 208 innings to Leake's 179. 30 innings is more is significant IMO. There's certainly more value in those extra innings.

    Further, let's not pretend that the gap in their BB/9 is much different (2.25 to 2.06). Bailey's K rate was noticeably better than Leake's K numbers. Bailey's ERA+ is 115 to Leake's 93.

    Bailey > Leake
    That's almost exclusively only because Bailey made three extra starts because of how the rotations were changed, not because he was pitching deeper into games.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #96
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    8,843

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    That's almost exclusively only because Bailey made three extra starts because of how the rotations were changed, not because he was pitching deeper into games.
    You think Leake would've gone 30 innings in 3 starts? We can't reasonably conclude that Leake would've performed the same in those 3 starts either. When he was called upon for those extra starts, he performed very well.

    The K numbers are noticeably better as is the ERA+ for Bailey.

  8. #97
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    15,619

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    The truth of the matter is the Reds have to score some runs today. They can't count on winning a 1-0, 2-1 game and I think that's (scoring runs) possible with Zito. The offense has to come to the park thinking that they'll have to pick up the pitching today. This is a game for the O to win

  9. #98
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,572

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    You think Leake would've gone 30 innings in 3 starts? We can't reasonably conclude that Leake would've performed the same in those 3 starts either. When he was called upon for those extra starts, he performed very well.

    The K numbers are noticeably better as is the ERA+ for Bailey.
    The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

    So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #99
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,874

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

    So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.
    I know this stems from the Leake v. Bailey debate we've had all year.

    I've been on the Leake side of things until recently. But Bailey has become a dominant pitcher of late.

    Yes, Homer has been inconsistent and may revert. But right now, I don't see a comparison between the two.

  11. #100
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    8,843

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

    So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.
    Let's compare their starts yesterday and today.

    Bailey > Leake. By a lot.

  12. #101
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    6,232

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    I'm hoping they sign Homer to a "reasonable" extension this offseason, find someone who will give us a starting CFer for Leake and move to upgrade his spot in the rotation - either a signing, a deal or Aroldis (but I'm thinking that ship has sailed).

  13. #102
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,450

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.
    He's no Barry Zito.

  14. #103
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,572

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Let's compare their starts yesterday and today.

    Bailey > Leake. By a lot.
    So the whole premise of my post was that looking too much at the last few starts of the year out of 30 starts over the course of the season was essentially cherry-picking, and your response is to over-simplify it further by focusing on one start each out of 31 and 34 respectively? Respectfully, that's exactly what I'm trying to avoid. Of course it goes without saying these last starts weren't remotely comparable... but on the whole, their performances this season weren't indicative of looking only at the last few starts.

    Look, the way Homer pitched the last few games of the year was nothing short of sensational. I absolutely hope he continues because if he does, not only will he be as good or possibly better than any Reds' pitcher, but he'd be as good as most pitchers in the entire league. Sans Justin Verlander, Homer pitched as well as anyone in the majors his last few times through.

    But the point is doing it for 3-4 starts is not the same as doing for a season. He still hasn't done it for a whole season and his seasonal stats are pretty darn similar to Leake. I also don't think that's the bad thing that people are making it sound, as I think Leake doesn't get enough credit. But all I'm saying is that people need to stop acting like Bailey has suddenly turned the corner because he's turned in a phenomenal three starts in a row.

    Let him do it for a full season and then we'll have something to talk about. I like Homer. He's a good pitcher. And if he continues to pitch like this, he'll be a GREAT pitcher. But again... let's stop carving out 3-4 starts and representing those starts as a whole evolution of something he wasn't for the previous 29-30. If this Homer is the one we'll see going forward, there's not a comparison (as if it really matters anyhow. Not sure why Leake has to be torn down to build up Homer). I hope this is the one we see going forward.

    My whole thing has been trade Homer or Leake for a starting LF or CF so that Chapman can be put in the rotation. Homer is making it easier to trade, not because I think Leake is better but because Homer's trade value is skyrocketing if he keeps this up.
    Last edited by Brutus; 10-11-2012 at 02:15 AM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #104
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    8,843

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    So the whole premise of my post was that looking too much at the last few starts of the year out of 30 starts over the course of the season was essentially cherry-picking, and your response is to over-simplify it further by focusing on one start each out of 31 and 34 respectively? Respectfully, that's exactly what I'm trying to avoid. Of course it goes without saying these last starts weren't remotely comparable... but on the whole, their performances this season weren't indicative of looking only at the last few starts.

    Look, the way Homer pitched the last few games of the year was nothing short of sensational. I absolutely hope he continues because if he does, not only will he be as good or possibly better than any Reds' pitcher, but he'd be as good as most pitchers in the entire league. Sans Justin Verlander, Homer pitched as well as anyone in the majors his last few times through.

    But the point is doing it for 3-4 starts is not the same as doing for a season. He still hasn't done it for a whole season and his seasonal stats are pretty darn similar to Leake. I also don't think that's the bad thing that people are making it sound, as I think Leake doesn't get enough credit. But all I'm saying is that people need to stop acting like Bailey has suddenly turned the corner because he's turned in a phenomenal three starts in a row.

    Let him do it for a full season and then we'll have something to talk about. I like Homer. He's a good pitcher. And if he continues to pitch like this, he'll be a GREAT pitcher. But again... let's stop carving out 3-4 starts and representing those starts as a whole evolution of something he wasn't for the previous 29-30. If this Homer is the one we'll see going forward, there's not a comparison (as if it really matters anyhow. Not sure why Leake has to be torn down to build up Homer). I hope this is the one we see going forward.

    My whole thing has been trade Homer or Leake for a starting LF or CF so that Chapman can be put in the rotation. Homer is making it easier to trade, not because I think Leake is better but because Homer's trade value is skyrocketing if he keeps this up.
    It's been more than 3-4 starts. I originally quoted since the beginning of September, which is actually 8 starts (half at home and half on the road). Dang near all (in fact, all but 1) have been great. Homer K's more batters and has a near equal walk rate. His ERA+ is better as well.

    You can claim "cherrypicking" or "small sample size" all you want, but the reality of is that it's not unreasonable to assume that Homer is a better bet than Leake now and moving forward.

  16. #105
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,572

    Re: Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It's been more than 3-4 starts. I originally quoted since the beginning of September, which is actually 8 starts (half at home and half on the road). Dang near all (in fact, all but 1) have been great. Homer K's more batters and has a near equal walk rate. His ERA+ is better as well.

    You can claim "cherrypicking" or "small sample size" all you want, but the reality of is that it's not unreasonable to assume that Homer is a better bet than Leake now and moving forward.
    In the start immediately preceding the no-hitter, he gave up 5 runs on a pair of homers. In the two starts prior to that, he only gave up one run apiece in a combined 14 innings, but he only struck out eight, and gave up almost as many fly balls as he did grounders. Those two starts were certainly not great.

    The two starts before those three were great but they were also against the worst team in baseball.

    Really now, the last three starts are clouding peoples' recollection of what he was doing prior to that point. Before the no-hitter, people were still talking about the inconsistency and all of a sudden now those September starts are being revised to indicate the start of a trend. That isn't consistent with how people were viewing those games after they happened.

    I still don't know why you're so concerned with being "better than Leake moving forward." Does it really matter that much?
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25