Further, let's not pretend that the gap in their BB/9 is much different (2.25 to 2.06). Bailey's K rate was noticeably better than Leake's K numbers. Bailey's ERA+ is 115 to Leake's 93.
Bailey > Leake
The K numbers are noticeably better as is the ERA+ for Bailey.
The truth of the matter is the Reds have to score some runs today. They can't count on winning a 1-0, 2-1 game and I think that's (scoring runs) possible with Zito. The offense has to come to the park thinking that they'll have to pick up the pitching today. This is a game for the O to win
So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.
I've been on the Leake side of things until recently. But Bailey has become a dominant pitcher of late.
Yes, Homer has been inconsistent and may revert. But right now, I don't see a comparison between the two.
I'm hoping they sign Homer to a "reasonable" extension this offseason, find someone who will give us a starting CFer for Leake and move to upgrade his spot in the rotation - either a signing, a deal or Aroldis (but I'm thinking that ship has sailed).
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Look, the way Homer pitched the last few games of the year was nothing short of sensational. I absolutely hope he continues because if he does, not only will he be as good or possibly better than any Reds' pitcher, but he'd be as good as most pitchers in the entire league. Sans Justin Verlander, Homer pitched as well as anyone in the majors his last few times through.
But the point is doing it for 3-4 starts is not the same as doing for a season. He still hasn't done it for a whole season and his seasonal stats are pretty darn similar to Leake. I also don't think that's the bad thing that people are making it sound, as I think Leake doesn't get enough credit. But all I'm saying is that people need to stop acting like Bailey has suddenly turned the corner because he's turned in a phenomenal three starts in a row.
Let him do it for a full season and then we'll have something to talk about. I like Homer. He's a good pitcher. And if he continues to pitch like this, he'll be a GREAT pitcher. But again... let's stop carving out 3-4 starts and representing those starts as a whole evolution of something he wasn't for the previous 29-30. If this Homer is the one we'll see going forward, there's not a comparison (as if it really matters anyhow. Not sure why Leake has to be torn down to build up Homer). I hope this is the one we see going forward.
My whole thing has been trade Homer or Leake for a starting LF or CF so that Chapman can be put in the rotation. Homer is making it easier to trade, not because I think Leake is better but because Homer's trade value is skyrocketing if he keeps this up.
Last edited by Brutus; 10-11-2012 at 02:15 AM.
You can claim "cherrypicking" or "small sample size" all you want, but the reality of is that it's not unreasonable to assume that Homer is a better bet than Leake now and moving forward.
The two starts before those three were great but they were also against the worst team in baseball.
Really now, the last three starts are clouding peoples' recollection of what he was doing prior to that point. Before the no-hitter, people were still talking about the inconsistency and all of a sudden now those September starts are being revised to indicate the start of a trend. That isn't consistent with how people were viewing those games after they happened.
I still don't know why you're so concerned with being "better than Leake moving forward." Does it really matter that much?