Baseball America: Southern League Top 20 Prospects (4 Reds)

[Steve4192]

Yeah but those fences in Bakersfield are really deep so he should get some credit for that. I think only that field in Williamsport has deeper fences.

http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/saml_ca.html

Excellent point.

Doug likes to explain away Hamilton's extra base hits by citing the generous dimensions of home parks that inflate doubles and triples, then turns right around and rails against his lack of home runs. You can't have it both ways. If you are going to use park factors to poo-poo his gap power, you also have to acknowledge his home park suppresses the long ball.

[dougdirt]

Excellent point.

Doug likes to explain away Hamilton's extra base hits by citing the generous dimensions of home parks that inflate doubles and triples, then turns right around and rails against his lack of home runs. You can't have it both ways. If you are going to use park factors to poo-poo his gap power, you also have to acknowledge his home park suppresses the long ball.

I think you missed some sarcasm in there because Hamilton's parks actually gave up a lot more home runs than the league average. Bakersfield was slightly friendly to both lines and very friendly in center. In Pensacola, both left and right field really boost home runs. The link that klw supplied shows the dimensions of the ballpark in Bakersfield, where it is a measly 354 feet to dead center.

Williamsport is where they play the little league world series. Hence the joke. Hamilton has played in three very home run friendly ballparks out of five thus far in his career and even one other one, Dayton, is at least home run friendly for the league. I don't know how the GCL park played in 2009 while he was there.

[mdccclxix]

If we're talking about a player who will be seeing playing time into his mid to late 20's I can totally see where Hamilton will add enough power to hit 10 hr. That's a long ways away. Guys can add 5 lbs of muscle per year if they try. It may not be in sight now, but I couldn't rule it out. They said he couldn't do a lot of things he's already proved wrong. Perhaps power is next.

[lollipopcurve]

Power comes later. Hamilton will never hit many out, but he'll get a few, and his speed will up his EBH count. The guy's got some wiry strength, and I've seen him launch a couple line drives (one in the Future Stars game) that showed he can drive the ball with some carry. It's not an aspect of his game that worries me -- I'm more concerned about whether his arm will play in CF, given his throwing mechanics as he transitions from the infield.

[Scrap Irony]

He has 4 home runs that have gone over the fence in 1711 professional at bats. For Major League comparisons here is the list of guys with a higher PA/HR rate in the Majors over the last 4 years with at least 500 PA's.

Ben Revere
Emmanuel Burriss
Luis Castillo
Alex Cora
Chris Getz
Jamey Carroll
Angel Sanchez
Juan Pierre
Ruben Tejada
Dee Gordon
Jason Kendall

After those guys, there is a decent sized gap to the next guy. Hamilton fits into that group with the next player before another decent sized gap to the next group.

So let's just say that group of 13 players, including Hamilton and Alberto Gonzalez, they make up the bottom 2.8% of players with at least 500 PA.

HR are a part of the power equation, but hardly the only part. 38 extra base hits quality as decent power. So does his slugging percentage. You continue to ignore that fact.

[dougdirt]

HR are a part of the power equation, but hardly the only part. 38 extra base hits quality as decent power. So does his slugging percentage. You continue to ignore that fact.

Not really. His speed provides extra bases, not his power. If you want to choose to ignore that, you can feel free.

[M2]

Hamilton drove the ball more consistently this year than last. He's also young for the levels he's playing at. I'm in the camp that believes he still needs to make more progress in terms of driving the ball in order to be an impact player in the majors, but he's trending in the right direction and showing that he is not a pure spaghetti stick.

And clearly Cingrani turned a lot of heads this year. He's sold a lot of people on his potential to be a major league starting pitcher.

[mdccclxix]

Here's a thing from Sickles on Corcino from 9/26:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...incinnati-reds