Turn Off Ads?
Page 6 of 20 FirstFirst ... 234567891016 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 293

Thread: Offseason Priorities

  1. #76
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    5,752

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    1. Do they replace the hitting coach?

    I would.

    2. Do they sell high on some guys who had good seasons, such as Bailey? Chapman? 2 guys who often have arm fatigue but survived this season intact.

    The old adage that everybody has their price holds true. Thing is though, if I were AD, the other team wouldn't meet my price on certain guys. I'd ship Joey Votto to the Dodgers in a heartbeat if they'd snd Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, either Scott Van SLyke or Josh Fields and cash in return. Wouldn't be holding my breath for a "Yes." I think Homer just got the ol' "dead arm" that is a natural result of pitching more innings in the past. It hit Cueto also. Homer certainly bounced back in fine fashion. I'd try to sign him to a fair extension this offseason. If you're gonna try to upgrade on Mike Leake and you're gonna trade Homer, then you're gonna have to come up with two quality starter. I believe Aroldis also suffered a little dead arm from an increased workload - (getting used to the number of appearances as much as the increased innings, IMO). Again, I would consider a deal for Aroldis, but an all-star caliber 3B, LF or TOR Starter would be heading back my way in the deal if I did.

    3. How long will it take Hamilton to get to the major leagues or will he? Will he succeed or flop at the major league level?

    Between the tradedeadline 2013 and the tradedeadline 2014. I don't think he'll flop. I think there is a good chance he becomes a very special player and the best true leadoff hitter the Reds have had in a very long time, but it's certinaly not a leadpipe cinch.

    4. Short term fix or long term fix in CF? And how do you acquire someone? What are the options?

    BPA with the best OBP (plus solid D). This club needs a CF who can get on base and play adequate D. I love Billy's potential, but he shouldn't factor into the equation for CF in 2013 in the least. Go get a CF like Fowler or Span and imporve the club now. It keeps you from having to rush Billy also. Then, if Billy forces his way out of L'Ville then you can trade Fowler or Span easily or maybe if you get one of them, you revisit the move of Billy off SS and deal Cozart and/or Didi. No such thing as having too much solid talent. I would try to deal for Span or Fowler or possibly sign Bourn (not a favorite). I wouldn't look for a short-term answer if a better option is available, but if they go short-term, Shane Victorino or Nate McClouth might be possible. If they want to go with someone who is not necessarily a natural CF (of if you want tomove Bruce to CF) Juston Upton, David DeJesus or Shin-Soo-Choo might be targets.

    5. Are you okay with Frazier at 3B? Or do you want an upgrade?

    I'm very OK with Frazier at third base or LF (if you acquire a solid 3B). You need to address one of the two spots anyway. I wouldn't mind a bit if they could find someone as an insurance policy for Todd that can switch-hit or hits lefty.

    6. Are you okay with Ludwick in LF? Or do you want an upgrade?

    I'd be fine with him back at the right price. If he doesn't return, I think Walt needs to expend every effot to land a top bat at either LF or 3B. If Ryan does return, then I would still like to have a LH bat with power who can play 3B and LF (if possible) to mix with he and Frazier.

    7. Chapman, rotation or Closer? Cingrani......is he a starter option or bullpen option?

    Chapman? Closer - too many variables. Stretching him out. How does starting affect his velocity? Effectiveness? Control? We already address that he had a fatigue issue in relief this year. At what point would he need to be Strassburg'd? I think you weaken two spots by trying to start him now (at least in the short-term). Cingrani? I'm fine either way. Wouldn't mind him starting in L'Ville at all, but I was also impressed with his work from the Reds pen late in the year. Having he, Marshall and Chapman in the pen from the left side would be sick. Come spring training 2014 though, he's a starter and vying for the spot vacated by Arroyo with Corcino.

    I'll even add a number 8.

    8. Does Walt try to upgrade the rotation this offseason?

    Yes. I believe he had every intention of aqcuiring a solid starter at the deadline this year and that that intention will carry over to the offseason. I look for him to make a run at someone like Garza, Shields, Masterson, etc. over the offseason and I don't even discount a surprise stab at a free agent (not that I think it will be successful). I also believe Leake will be dealt.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 10-14-2012 at 01:07 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #77
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,730

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    A specific off-season plan might look like this.

    1. Scott Rolen back on a deal as a bench player.
    2. Ryan Madsen's option declined. I'd consider him only on a minor league deal with a $1 Million guarantee and incentives for days on the Major league roster and appearances. He could probably do better.
    3 Todd Redmond, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez and Kris Negron DFA'd.
    4. Jonathon Broxton and Ryan Ludwick re-signed.
    5. Drew Stubbs and Logan Ondrusek to the Nationals for John Lannan.
    6. Mike Leake and Bill Bray to the Twins for Glen Perkins.
    7. Kyle Lotzkar and Jose Arredondo to the Cubs for David Dejesus.
    8. Aroldis Chapman to the rotation with a short leash.

    Vs RHP/Vs LHP
    David Dejesus/Chris Heisey CF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Joey Votto 1B
    Ryan Ludwick LF
    Jay Bruce RF
    Todd Frazier 3B
    Zach Cozart SS
    Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco C (Not a straight platoon).

    Xavier Paul OF/LHPH
    Didi Gregorious MI/LHPH
    Scott Rolen CI/RHPH

    Mat Latos
    Johnny Cueto
    Bronson Arroyo
    Homer Bailey
    Aroldis Chapman

    John Lannan 6th Starter
    Nick Masset/Alfredo Simon Mop-up reliever
    Sam Lecure RHMR
    Glen Perkins LHMR
    JJ Hoover RHSU
    Sean Marshall LHSU
    Jonathon Broxton Closer

    Pedro Villareal, Tony Cingrani, Dan Corcino and a couple of minor league free agents as pitching depth.

    I'm a skeptic with Chapman, but if the Reds can secure the pen with Broxton and a good LH acqusition like Perkins (or somebody else) and keep a sixth starter on hand that would be an OK number 5 (like Leake or as in this example, Lannan) a move to the rotation would be a good experiment since they could switch things around with Chapman to the pen and all the roles still adequately filled. I wouldn't make the move unless the Reds had a decent starter in reserve and could acquire another late inning caliber lefty for the pen.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #78
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    5,752

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    At catcher, I would bring back Navarro or sign someone similar as a backup to Hanigan. Unless there is an injury to Hanny or the backup, Davin Mesaraco would spend the first two months (at the very least) at L'Ville to get his hitting legs under him. No way do I bring him back up to watch from the bench as Hanny catches four or five games a week. Not saying (by any means) that I think Mes should be starting over Hanigan. Just saying I don't want to see Mes gathering dust behind him if he can be getting regular AB's in Louisville.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 10-14-2012 at 01:19 PM.

  5. #79
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,295

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    A couple of additional thoughts on off-season priorities.

    1. A veteran starter. Reds have a very young starting staff. If you look at the Reds' post season pitching performances, almost all were terrific. Arredondo, not. But mostly, it was 24 year old Mike Leake and 24 year old Mat Latos who struggled in key starts.

    One way potentially to help the post-season is to add a starting pitcher with experience to replace, say Leake, who could be moved.

    2. Contact. As I said in an earlier post, Tom Verducci wrote a good piece in SI saying that teams with contact hitters do better in the playoffs these days. He points to a severe trend toward bat missing and strikeouts in the major leagues. Hitting for contact is not a particular Reds' strength.

    Another way potentially to help the Reds go deeper in the playoffs is to add a few guys who make contact. Guys like Stubbs and Heisey could be replaced by high contact hitters. Cairo and Valdez would also be obvious candidates to be replaced by high contact bench players.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-14-2012 at 04:28 PM.

  6. #80
    Member Tadasimha's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Quad Cities
    Posts
    432

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A couple of additional thoughts on off-season priorities.

    1. A veteran starter. Reds have a very young starting staff. If you look at the Reds' post season pitching performances, almost all were terrific. Arredondo, not. But mostly, it was 24 year old Mike Leake and 24 year old Mat Latos who struggled in key starts.

    One way potentially to help the post-season is to add a starting pitcher with experience to replace, say Leake, who could be moved.
    They have a veteran starter in Arroyo for at least one more season - after that, all four of the young starters will have had several seasons as starters (and more post-season experience as well): this staff will have evolved into a veteran staff. Arroyo probably being gone after 2013 means I think you see Mike Leake still on the team as he becomes the "change of pace" guy in between the hard throwers. This presumes he gets back to being the double digit winner he was in 2011.

    Of course they could still make a move for another starter but I really think the GM is going to be looking to improve the offense before the rotation.

    Chapman should stay as the closer - he's dominant out of the pen and it would be a wasted season for him to stretch out as a starter, plus we've already seen what happens when the velocity goes down, which was after stopper innings and pitch numbers. Imagine what happens two-thirds of the way through the season when he's over 100 innings - wouldn't be pretty.
    If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!

  7. #81
    Member Marc D's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    2,727

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A couple of additional thoughts on off-season priorities.

    1. A veteran starter. Reds have a very young starting staff. If you look at the Reds' post season pitching performances, almost all were terrific. Arredondo, not. But mostly, it was 24 year old Mike Leake and 24 year old Mat Latos who struggled in key starts.

    One way potentially to help the post-season is to add a starting pitcher with experience to replace, say Leake, who could be moved.

    2. Contact. As I said in an earlier post, Tom Verducci wrote a good piece in SI saying that teams with contact hitters do better in the playoffs these days. He points to a severe trend toward bat missing and strikeouts in the major leagues. Hitting for contact is not a particular Reds' strength.

    Another way potentially to help the Reds go deeper in the playoffs is to add a few guys who make contact. Guys like Stubbs and Heisey could be replaced by high contact hitters. Cairo and Valdez would also be obvious candidates to be replaced by high contact bench players.
    Our old friend Jeff Keppinger as a FA replacement for Cairo would bolster the bench and give you a high contact guy. Not sure what he would command money wise or if he's actually a multiple position guy anymore.

  8. #82
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,295

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Tadasimha View Post
    They have a veteran starter in Arroyo for at least one more season - after that, all four of the young starters will have had several seasons as starters (and more post-season experience as well): this staff will have evolved into a veteran staff. Arroyo probably being gone after 2013 means I think you see Mike Leake still on the team as he becomes the "change of pace" guy in between the hard throwers. This presumes he gets back to being the double digit winner he was in 2011.

    Of course they could still make a move for another starter but I really think the GM is going to be looking to improve the offense before the rotation.

    Chapman should stay as the closer - he's dominant out of the pen and it would be a wasted season for him to stretch out as a starter, plus we've already seen what happens when the velocity goes down, which was after stopper innings and pitch numbers. Imagine what happens two-thirds of the way through the season when he's over 100 innings - wouldn't be pretty.
    Guys only "evolve" into a veteran staff one year at a time. By my count, the 24 year old starters on the Reds will still only be 25 next year.

    Down the stretch and in the playoffs, it's good to have some experience on the roster. Good players who have been there before sometimes have an advantage.

    The Cardinals win a lot in the post-season. They tend to have veteran starting pitchers, mostly. I think it helps them. I don't see a lot of 24 year old starters in the playoffs for some of the other top teams.

    I am aware that Arroyo is a veteran. A good mixture on a starting staff would include another solid veteran starter. A veteran starter might have been a good alternative for Game four of the NLDS.

    And, yes, I think it's quite apparent that offense will be a priority this off-season. But that doesn't preclude one change in the rotation.

    The Keppinger suggestion by Marc D is a good one although he is another righty hitter who feasts on lefties. The bench is another place for some veterans, although they have to hit more than Valdez and Cairo did this year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-14-2012 at 06:00 PM.

  9. #83
    getting younger alloverjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    1,164

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Interesting thoughts and agree with many. However, no way do I entrust the 9th inning in 2013 to Broxton. Very good pick up this year by Walt and assuming no health issues would like to have him back for the 7th or 8th innings. If Chapman's not the closer I think that creates a significant void. But I like Chapman in the rotation though.
    This place use to be fun

  10. #84
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,730

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Our old friend Jeff Keppinger as a FA replacement for Cairo would bolster the bench and give you a high contact guy. Not sure what he would command money wise or if he's actually a multiple position guy anymore.
    I might consider him if Rolen retires. With his ability to play 2B and 3B and Frazier's ability to play all 4 corner spots, he could get a lot of action backing up Phillips and Frazer and also Votto, Ludwick and Bruce with Frazier moving around. As long as he's not in the mix at SS and isn't penciled in as an every day player, he's a decent bench guy, but if Rolen comes back, he doesn't fit IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #85
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    12,626

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Contact. As I said in an earlier post, Tom Verducci wrote a good piece in SI saying that teams with contact hitters do better in the playoffs these days. He points to a severe trend toward bat missing and strikeouts in the major leagues. Hitting for contact is not a particular Reds' strength.
    I agree with this. The Reds were seemingly incapable of getting a base hit when they needed one in the post-season during their swoon.

    High-OB skills are incredibly important, but the Reds definitely need a few BA-driven OB guys in the lineup.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  12. #86
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    2,690

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I agree with this. The Reds were seemingly incapable of getting a base hit when they needed one in the post-season during their swoon.

    High-OB skills are incredibly important, but the Reds definitely need a few BA-driven OB guys in the lineup.
    Yep. The reported demise of the batting average may have been premature.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  13. #87
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,516

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    I like the idea of another veteran starter. My biggest complaint about the way Dusty set up the pitching staff for the series is that Arroyo was not on the mound for game 5, short rest or no. Nevertheless for next year's playoff I'd hope to go Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, and Latos (the order I see them being next year)--so I don't really know where we'd use that more experienced starter. Mike Leake's a competent number 5, but I wouldn't let that fact get in the way of the Chapman to starter experiment for a moment. If Chapman can start, then the org's judgment about Leake is going to turn on whether he's sufficiently better than what can be picked up in the market or what we've got in the pipeline to keep around. Personally I think he will either be traded or likely start opening day for Louisville next year. I don't see him cracking a rotation of Bailey, Chapman, Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, and it might make best sense to keep Redmond or turn to Villareal as your back up guy if Leake can bring something of value in trade.

  14. #88
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,571

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Replacing the chaff that was Cairo and Valdez is an immediate upgrade that will solidify the regular season run for a playoff spot....but a huge bat or huge arm is needed to get the team over the top in a short series.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  15. #89
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    2,711

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I agree with this. The Reds were seemingly incapable of getting a base hit when they needed one in the post-season during their swoon.

    High-OB skills are incredibly important, but the Reds definitely need a few BA-driven OB guys in the lineup.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Yep. The reported demise of the batting average may have been premature.
    Interestingly, the Reds had the highest batting average of any team during the playoffs this year. They scored more runs than any other team in the first round.

    The Reds got 15 more hits than the Giants did, and even outhit the Giants in the infamous Game 5.

    During the regular season the Reds had a league average batting average (.251) and a better than average slugging percentage (.411). Their OBP (.315) was too low, and only 4 NL teams were worse. The Reds finished 9th in the NL in runs scored.

    Batting average does not correlate very well with scoring, certainly nowhere near as well as OBP and SLG do.

    The Reds' problem offensively this year was OBP. It didn't help that the lowest OBP hitters spent most of their time at the top of the lineup. If they had batted lower in the lineup it would have led to a better team OBP and more runs scored over the course of the season. If not for Joey Votto the Reds' OBP would have been atrocious, maybe even the worst in the league. Votto's .474 OBP this year was the best in the majors since Barry Bonds' string of steroid-fueled seasons.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 10-15-2012 at 03:52 AM.

  16. #90
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,295

    Re: Offseason Priorities

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Interestingly, the Reds had the highest batting average of any team during the playoffs this year. They scored more runs than any other team in the first round.

    The Reds got 15 more hits than the Giants did, and even outhit the Giants in the infamous Game 5.

    During the regular season the Reds had a league average batting average (.251) and a better than average slugging percentage (.411). Their OBP (.315) was too low, and only 4 NL teams were worse. The Reds finished 9th in the NL in runs scored.

    Batting average does not correlate very well with scoring, certainly nowhere near as well as OBP and SLG do.

    The Reds' problem offensively this year was OBP. It didn't help that the lowest OBP hitters spent most of their time at the top of the lineup. If they had batted lower in the lineup it would have led to a better team OBP and more runs scored over the course of the season. If not for Joey Votto the Reds' OBP would have been atrocious, maybe even the worst in the league. Votto's .474 OBP this year was the best in the majors since Barry Bonds' string of steroid-fueled seasons.
    According to ESPN, the Reds were below average in BOTH BA and OBP. BA was .251 and league average was .254. There is no reason to distinguish so heavily between the two. The Reds are deficient in both categories.

    And while Votto's OBP dramatically improved the team's OBP, his BA did the same. He hit .337. The only other regular above .280 was Phillips, at .281.

    The Reds are a team that hits for power but not for average, not for OBP. And I agree with you that in MANY areas, Votto's outstanding numbers improve the team's overall average. Just as Chapman's numbers dramatically improved the bullpen stats. So we have to look deeper sometimes than just overall team average.

    As for the playoffs, the Reds did score a lot of runs in the first two games, but only got 8 in the last three, and of course gave up a bunch in games four and five. The failures in those last three games include hitting, pitching, and defense.

    For the Reds offense to be top notch they need more lefty/righty balance, more contact, more OBP. They can live with slightly less power to make the trade off. I've felt this way all year.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25