Gauging minor league managers on W-L is awful risky. The big league teams dictate so much and really disrupt a team's ability to gel and play well together. If you went by wins and losses and championships, Mark Berry would be the manager of this team. He was an "up and coming" minor league manager until Jack McKeon pulled him up and made him a bullpen catcher/extra coach. I actually think that ruined his career path. Just my opinion.
If you watch closely this year, Arnie Beyeler who won the IL championship probably won't even get a sniff this year. Trey Hillman is a good case study.
Picking managers is a real crap shoot. Honestly, there might not be a more intelligent and resourceful baseball guy on any staff than Tony Pena. He had his shot and its unlikely he'll receive another. Mattingly was lucky to be on a staff where he could learn the ropes from 2 of the best in Torre and Zimmer. Willie Randolph sure rode the Yankees success into a job he was not equipped to handle. Same thing with Mazzilli.
Bud Black, Roenicke, and Maddon all had the great fortune of paying their dues in some respect as well as being on Mike Scioscia's staff.
I like Mike Matheny. You're not going to trick the guy. He's calm, calculated and handles his clubhouse. He didn't need to go to A ball to prove that to anyone. Ventura is the same way. What would he need to prove? Those guys were the right fit for their club.
Pete Rose was a decent manager. I can't imagine Pete learning much about baseball or managing in the minors.
There's a lot I like about Dusty. There's stuff I don't like. What REALLY bothers me is the team's inability to make adjustments at the plate. It just kills this team. The Reds were fortunate that the NL Central was a flat out joke. They picked up a lot of wins that really made them shine. No one can argue that the stretch of games they played while Votto was out was great to watch but when they faced tough teams, it seemed to me they struggled.
How many times do you have to watch Stubbs, Frazier, Phillips, Cozart have the SAME AT BATS over and over and over. Once the league caught on that Frazier has trouble with the ball away and breaking ball down..... Cooked. Every at bat for Stubbs is a carbon copy of the one before. Phillips is so talented he gets away with murder. He can be duped easily but he also knows what he can jump on. Thank god he has that figured out. Cozart gets a pass this year.
These issues fall solely on the hitting coach. This is his responsibility. Preparation and the ability to work through adjustments. If you don't make adjustments in the Major Leagues you will not stick around. Jacoby needs to be replaced before Dusty goes, IMO.