2/25? On another thread I suggested he would get paid 3/22 or 4/30 and was severely mocked. Ludwick WILL get paid. I don't think it will be us.
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I haven't read this entire thread. But I remember reading on Redszone during the season........someone in the know with the Reds said that Ludwick would not be back next season, and the club was ready to move on without him.
I swear I read that on here during the season. Someone in the know posted it.
As I've said before, my #1 target is Choo. He solves TONS of problems for us. And he'll be WAAAAY more affordable than Upton.
It's not so much the issue of money as it is the length of the contract. I just don't see any possible way he'd get a 4-year deal. I think 2 years with an option is most likely, but if his services are more desired than I expect, I could see a 3-year deal.
Last off-season, we saw 7 players get deals for 4+ years. Every single one of them was both younger and better than Ludwick (although Yu Darvish was a question mark at the time). You could make the argument that Ludwick isn't even a top-10 outfield free agent, let alone top-10 free agent in baseball. He's more Jason Kubel than he is Carlos Beltran. He could be relatively expensive to keep around, but he shouldn't break the bank. And I'll reiterate that there's no way someone will offer him a 4-year deal.
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Choo is heading into his last year of arbitration. He will become a free agent after the 2013 season. I'd say the Indians are likely to hang on to him until the All-Star break. But if the Reds are trading for Choo, you can bet that it'd take some starting pitching plus prospects to get it done.
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Any club will have to assume some risk if they expect to compete, so I would surmise Ludwick would need to be offered at least a second year even if one doesn't believe he'll continue to produce beyond next season. That said, any risk needs to be measured and I don't think it's wise to go beyond two seasons (at least without a club option) nor would I pay $12 million on the basis of expecting he'll completely repeat what he did this year.
So I'm in the camp of two years, $6 million per with a third option year.
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I'd go 2 years $15 million with a mutual option for year 3. I wouldn't go beyond 2 guaranteed. The Reds can't afford to make those kinds of mistakes down the road.
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