[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I love Ludwick. But he caught lightning in a bottle this year. I don't think it's likely he repeats that performance. I wish him luck, and move in another direction.
If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!
Ludwick's numbers really look about the same across the board except for the spike in power. Take away the lost years in Petco and he might've been doing this all along. There's probably some aging for the next two or three years, but he's in good shape and doesn't play a demanding position. It's not my favorite contract, especially if he wants three years, but mid .700's OPS out of left next year is gonna be a big hit to the offense.
In so far as those numbers go, you're right: Ludwick has been roughly the same hitter at home as on the road the past 3 years. But -- and I do not intend to speak for the original poster -- there can be a lot more to the effect of a park than just home/away splits.
And in the specific case of Ryan Ludwick, he's laid claim to those different factors. His story, as related in numerous interviews in late May and early June, is that he adopted a lot of bad habits trying to hit at Petco. He tailored his swing to the park, and that followed him on the road. One month playing Pittsburgh at the end of 2011 wasn't enough time to fix anything. It was only after starting to get regular playing time with the Reds that he kicked all those bad habits, and went back to his old approach. And voila: his numbers went back to their old selves, too.
Now, I'm not even close to being an eagle-eyed enough swing doctor to know if he's telling the truth, or just tossing out some malarkey to try to explain away the crazy ups and downs of baseball... but as far as anecdotal evidence goes, it DOES seem to fit the facts.
Ludwick's first 3 years in STL as a regular averaged out to .280/.350/.510 (.860 OPS)... his first half of 2010 (still in STL) was .281/.343/.484 (.827 OPS), which is roughly in line with his career up to that point, minus a bit of power (which could just have been a figment of the small sample size in 300 AB). Everything was still dandy when he got traded to SD.
Then a full season in Petco, plus about 40 games after being traded to PIT, all while picking up all kinds of bad habits, resulted in roughly a .230/.310/.330 (.640 OPS) line.
Head to Cincinnati, finally get the swing fixed up, and over the course of the season, he puts up .275/.345/.530 (.875 OPS), which looks strangely familiar. Ludwick just may have a bona fide justification for his fluctuations over time.
I don't have any foolish notions that Ludwick will ever be the hitter his was in June/July/August this past year, especially not at 33 or 34 or whatever. But I think it is perfectly realistic that he could put up another season or two of overall numbers in that neighborhood.
That said, I'd probably have reservations about any new deal that includes a guaranteed third year, or an annual average value much more than $7-8m. Age is not on Ludwick's side, and the way the Reds have been handing out the cash the past two off-seasons and the presumed payroll limitations, this could quickly turn into exactly the kind of mistake the Reds can't afford to make...
Rick
Aging and diminishing skills will likely come into play with this contract, but the question is what skill level is Ludwick starting at. As you pointed out, I think a strong case could be made that last year wasn't a fluke and we're looking at a current .850+ OPS bat. I'd go hard after a two year contract and see if he bites. Finding that production elsewhere is gonna be a real challenge IMO.
Id pass on Cabrera. All the Cleveland press does is complain about how unmotivated he is and how how overweight he comes into spring training every year. The guy commits alot of errors and is a notoriously horrid 2nd half player. The last 2 years hes raked the first half and tanked the 2nd. Cozart is a much better option IMO.
"Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully
Lot more tread on Cabrera's tires. Phillips was still young and unproven.they said very similar things about Brandon Phillips while he was at the mistake by the lake. Just sayin'.
I have no doubt Lud will re-sign with the Reds for two years and somewhere around $13-14 million total. ($6.5 or $7 million per season.)
If he can get more elsewhere, good for him. He was a huge piece of the puzzle this year and I want him back, but the Reds can't (and won't) overpay for him.
I bet it all works out though. He seems to like Cincinnati, they like him, he probably won't get a better offer ... add it all up and I'd say the odds are definitely in favor of Ludwick remaining a Red.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
I wouldn't give two years guaranteed for him. Another year with a team option. Someone give him more, let him go.
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