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Thread: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

  1. #16
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    For the most part, it will be no different than the limits put on Taiwanese signees or Dominican signees. I'm not sure MLB will be all that bent out of shape about it. Not sure what's so precious about MLB's relationship with the Japanese leagues.
    I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.

    MLB doesn't want its teams interfering with guys under contract but this guy isn't under contract. I think MLB would balk if the guy wasn't 18 yet. That's the big double standard: MLB teams can go hoodwink Latin American players (other than PUerto Rico) without any agent representation as young as 16. MLB would have a cow if they did that in Japan or any country outside the developing world.
    You're absolutely right.
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  3. #17
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.



    You're absolutely right.
    MLB might see that as a good investment to make though. Lose the present wave of current Nippon players, but gain the entire careers of future stars who decide to take this path as well. What if Ichiro had played his whole career here?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  4. #18
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.
    .
    Well if Japan stops the posting system, then all their high end talent will bypass the Japeneese league.. They will sign with American clubs, and then possibly come back home after they've washed out of MLB..

    The posting system is very profitable for Japaneese clubs.. I doubt they would ever get rid of it.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #19
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well if Japan stops the posting system, then all their high end talent will bypass the Japeneese league.. They will sign with American clubs, and then possibly come back home after they've washed out of MLB..

    The posting system is very profitable for Japaneese clubs.. I doubt they would ever get rid of it.
    Not necessarily. Sure, they could come over here and sign as a free agent but they would be in the same boat with all the other amateurs. They would have to start off in rookie ball and work their way up. There's no guarantee of success. Plus they would have to play without the support system that major league teams have for their Japanese players. If they do wash out and come home, they may be blackballed and not able to play again.

    It is profitable but this may not be a question of dollars and yen. It may be a question of honor.
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  6. #20
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I could see MLB telling their teams to pass on this kid so as to not upset their relations with the Japanese league.
    If there was a way (short of inventing the USS Enterprise's transporter system) to get a professional team in Japan, MLB would have no problem telling the Japanese league to pound salt.
    Championships Matter.
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  7. #21
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Not necessarily. Sure, they could come over here and sign as a free agent but they would be in the same boat with all the other amateurs. They would have to start off in rookie ball and work their way up. There's no guarantee of success. Plus they would have to play without the support system that major league teams have for their Japanese players. If they do wash out and come home, they may be blackballed and not able to play again.

    It is profitable but this may not be a question of dollars and yen. It may be a question of honor.
    It's hard to predict what would happen, but you have to remember that every 16-18 year old kid that has "First round talent" is going to assume he's going to make it to the big leauges. That's just human nature. The big bucks and fame are in the USA.. Japan is a glorified AAAA league and the Japaneese players know it. IMO, Shohei is probably the first of a wave of kids that are going to completely skip the Japaneese minor league system.

    I think the support system is somewhat overrated.. Japan is not that much different than America.. Millions of Asians from developed nations like Japan come over here (immigration or H1 visas) and adjust pretty seamlessly.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #22
    Member Tadasimha's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Pound salt?
    If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!

  9. #23
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Tadasimha View Post
    Pound salt?
    We're on the same page on that one.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  10. #24
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    In case Doug pokes back in here, what amount of the yearly allocated budget have we spent and what might we have available for this guy?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    In case Doug pokes back in here, what amount of the yearly allocated budget have we spent and what might we have available for this guy?
    Don't have a clue. 90% of signings generally go unreported to the fans. You figure that each team probably signs 10-20 guys a year. So let's just round it to 15. 15 guys for 30 teams is 450 players. We generally know about the signings of maybe 50 of them.

  12. #26
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Don't have a clue. 90% of signings generally go unreported to the fans. You figure that each team probably signs 10-20 guys a year. So let's just round it to 15. 15 guys for 30 teams is 450 players. We generally know about the signings of maybe 50 of them.
    That's weird. Do a good number of them not get assigned to rosters or something, for some reason?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    That's weird. Do a good number of them not get assigned to rosters or something, for some reason?
    Well, most of the guys signed will never even make it to the United States. They will play a year or three in the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues and never get called stateside and then be released. The signing period doesn't start until July 2nd, and even then, not everyone is eligible to sign right away. So most of the guys who do sign in a given signing period, don't even play that first year that they sign because by the time they get signed and all of the paperwork is done, the foreign season leagues are finished. So most of them begin their career, 8-10 months after they have signed and are playing in the Dominican or in Venezuela. Baseball America and the likes generally only talk about the guys who are signing the real bonuses, $300,000 and higher. There aren't many of those guys, so those 30-50 guys get talked about and the rest are generally found out for the first time when each team starts releasing their media guides the next year and nerds like me go through and find out who signed during the previous signing period but didn't get a chance to play yet.

  14. #28
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, most of the guys signed will never even make it to the United States. They will play a year or three in the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues and never get called stateside and then be released. The signing period doesn't start until July 2nd, and even then, not everyone is eligible to sign right away. So most of the guys who do sign in a given signing period, don't even play that first year that they sign because by the time they get signed and all of the paperwork is done, the foreign season leagues are finished. So most of them begin their career, 8-10 months after they have signed and are playing in the Dominican or in Venezuela. Baseball America and the likes generally only talk about the guys who are signing the real bonuses, $300,000 and higher. There aren't many of those guys, so those 30-50 guys get talked about and the rest are generally found out for the first time when each team starts releasing their media guides the next year and nerds like me go through and find out who signed during the previous signing period but didn't get a chance to play yet.
    Right on. The difference between all the teams organizations have below, like, Low-A has always been really murky to me.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  15. #29
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    If there was a way (short of inventing the USS Enterprise's transporter system) to get a professional team in Japan, MLB would have no problem telling the Japanese league to pound salt.
    I've brought it up on this board before. Tokyo is a huge market and it would be doable. The way you'd do it is by letting the Tokyo team rotate one month at home and one month on the road. Visiting teams would come in for 6 or 7 game serieses. Cash. cow.

    They don't need the starship enterprise. Maybe buying one of the old Concord supersonic jets would be a good investment though.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  16. #30
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore.
    If this became an epidemic, one thing the Japanese league might consider doing is letting its players become free agents after 6 years of service rather than 10.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008


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