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Thread: Jacoby Ellsbury

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    Jacoby Ellsbury

    What would it take to trade for him?

    He is a FA after 2013. He is likely to make about $10MM in arbitration this year. He is also coming off of an injury plagued down year. The Red Sox don't seem primed to contend in 2013 although they are an organization that looks to contend every year.

    They seem to have a hole at 1B and LF. In addition their SP is aging quickly.

    I wonder if something like Tony Cingrani (or Corcino if they prefer), Donald Lutz, and Drew Stubbs would work? My guess is they'd demand Frazier, which I probably wouldn't do.

    Ellsbury would be a perfect fit for the 2013 Reds. He bats LH, is a great leadoff hitter who could keep things warm for Billy Hamilton in 2014. Worst case if Hamilton is forcing his way to Cincy, we could move Ellsbury to LF for the second half of the season, or trade him at the deadline if we were out of contention.

    Otherwise, give him a qualifying offer next offseason, thank him, and collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Coming back to the original question, what would it take to pry him from Boston?
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    trade him at the deadline if we were out of contention.

    Otherwise, give him a qualifying offer next offseason, thank him, and collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Coming back to the original question, what would it take to pry him from Boston?
    Boston's looking at it the same way. It would take a whole lot to get him this offseason.

    There will be good, less expensive options available.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    I'd be surprised if the Reds threw that much money at CF. I think they will move Billy Hamilton up very quickly and will try to go cheaper with the position until that happens.

    I'm guessing Hamilton is very heavily in their plans. I wouldn't be shocked if he starts next season at AAA.

    I could see them throwing a few million at a stopgap centerfielder for 2013. But $10 million for Ellsbury with an injury risk? Don't see it, but only a guess of course.

    I'm expecting an acquisition like Eric Young, Jr.

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Don't disagree with either of you in terms of what the Reds will do. I think it may be what the Reds should do. They could move Ellsbury to LF once Hamilton is ready. Either way, the CF job is Hamilton's as soon as he's ready, and the decks are cleared come 2014.

    I'd much rather spend $10MM for one season of Ellsbury than $20MM for 3 years of Ludwick at this point. Also moving Stubbs would help offset some of that.

    lollipop, what do you think it would hypothetically cost the Reds for Boston to give him up?
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    It's hard to say, there aren't many injured stars that are moved with a year left on their deal. It's a big potential loss for either team.

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    It's hard to say, there aren't many injured stars that are moved with a year left on their deal. It's a big potential loss for either team.
    Agreed. However I do think Cingrani, Lutz and Stubbs does potentially address three need areas for them. I guess a lot of it depends on how much they think they'll contend in 2013, and how likely they think they are to re-sign Ellsbury. If they have doubts about either or both, a trade like that could make a lot of sense for them.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Every team would like to have Ellsbury. BUT......

    1. His tools and production, WHEN HEALTHY, require a big salary. He is a free agent after next season. Not sure I would risk trading a boatload for him and risking that he'll only play 50 or 80 games, and then walk in 2014.

    2. Billy Hamilton is on the verge. And he comes cheaper than Ellsbury.
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Here's an interesting rumor story about Ellsbury

    http://www.bosoxbanter.com/2012/10/e...g-for-red-sox/

    The Red Sox would like to upgrade their rotation, and while the 26-year-old Holland is not the ace starter they desperately need, he does represent a durable and effective left-hander who is under affordable team control through as long as 2018.

    Holland, who was 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 2011 before slipping to 12-7 with a 4.67 ERA this year, signed a five-year, $28.5 million deal in 2012 that will pay him $3.25 million in 2013 and increase his annual salary to $5.4 million in 2014, $7.4 million in 2015 and $10 million in 2016. He has team options of $11 million and $11.5 million in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
    If that's all it takes to get Ellsbury, you'd think the Reds could be in on the action. I'm not sure how healthy Ellsbury projects to be next year though.
    Someone made an excellent point that acquiring Ellsbury would relieve some pressure to resign Ludwick. With Ellsbury healthy, the Reds could possibly go cheap/reclamation at 3b or LF (Frasier plays the other position).

    Walt supposedly talked to the Red Sox about Ellsbury at the trade deadline, so I imagine he'll talk more to them in the offseason.

    IMO, the Red Sox will get more for trading him now than at the 2013 deadline.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    IMO, the Red Sox will get more for trading him now than at the 2013 deadline.
    A heck of a lot more if he's hurt again by the deadline. Then again, if he is healthy and producing, they could likely get more. It's a gamble...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    2. Billy Hamilton is on the verge. And he comes cheaper than Ellsbury.
    That's why the remaining year would be perfect. We'll see Billy in September.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    I don't understand the fascination of even entertaining the idea of trading away Corcino and/or Cingrani at this point. We need SP depth and they are the depth and youth we need at that spot. Ellsbury would be nice, but it stops at nice. Especially if parting with one of those two is the asking price.

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by crazybob60 View Post
    I don't understand the fascination of even entertaining the idea of trading away Corcino and/or Cingrani at this point. We need SP depth and they are the depth and youth we need at that spot. Ellsbury would be nice, but it stops at nice. Especially if parting with one of those two is the asking price.
    TINSTAAPP

    The Reds have 2-3 years to really contend for a World Series before some of their pitching gets really expensive and leaves town (and Brandon Phillips gets old). Cingrani and Corcino are luxuries on a team with 5 and possibly 6 proven major league starting pitchers (if you include Chapman) signed for multiple years. Robert Stephenson is the best pitching prospect in the organization, and his arrival timeline lines up perfectly with the above stated window. While I would be very hesitant to trade both Cingrani and Corcino, I would definitely trade one of them if it meant filling a major hole right now, which our OF certainly qualifies as such.

    If I were the GM and the Sox accepted my proposed deal (Cingrani, Lutz and Stubbs) for Ellsbury, I would try to sign Kevin Youkilis to a 1 year, $5MM deal.

    Go to war with:

    CF Ellsbury
    3B Youkilis
    1B Votto
    LF Frazier
    RF Bruce
    2B Phillips (could swap spots with Youk)
    SS Cozart
    C Hanigan/Mez

    If/when Youkilis gets hurt and/or Hamilton is ready, you go with:

    CF Hamilton
    LF Ellsbury
    1B Votto
    3B Frazier
    RF Bruce
    2B Phillips
    SS Cozart
    C Hanigan/Mez

    If Ellsbury can't stay healthy, you have Heisey as a backup plan, and you can always trade for a rental LF bopper at the deadline if need be. (I'm thinking Carlos Beltran in 2011 or Hunter Pence in 2012)

    It is the exact kind of calculated risk I'd be willing to take. Much more preferable than taking a calculated risk on 3 years and $20MM+ of Ryan Ludwick maintaining his 2012 productivity. Of course my other preferred choice would be trading for Justin Upton.

    As an added bonus for whatever it's worth and whatever value you assign to this (including 0), Ellsbury and Youkilis are both seasoned playoff vets that have a history of performing in clutch moments- something this team unfortunately lacked earlier this month.
    Last edited by Benihana; 10-24-2012 at 05:08 PM.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    lollipop, what do you think it would hypothetically cost the Reds for Boston to give him up?
    pitching, for sure, although they may have interest in Didi (they are short at SS and may want another prospect from Curacao to pair with Bogaerts)

    Leake plus Didi, something like that -- they may throw something back the Reds way in a deal like that

    to me, you don't do a deal like that for a rental, especially a guy with that injury history

    the CF market is shaping up as a buyer's market, I think
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    pitching, for sure, although they may have interest in Didi (they are short at SS and may want another prospect from Curacao to pair with Bogaerts)

    Leake plus Didi, something like that -- they may throw something back the Reds way in a deal like that

    to me, you don't do a deal like that for a rental, especially a guy with that injury history

    the CF market is shaping up as a buyer's market, I think
    I would first offer that exact deal to Arizona for Upton.
    Then I would offer a derivation of it to Colorado for Fowler (sub another propsect in for DiDi because they don't need SS)
    If neither of those avenues worked, I would likely pull the trigger on that deal for Ellsbury.

    After the season Ellsbury turns into a first round pick that can easily replicate DiDi (although on a friendlier timeline that is more complementary to Cozart) and you can replace Leake in the rotation with a combo of Chapman and Cingrani. The offense is much improved and I don't know how much the pitching really suffers- you replace Leake with a power lefty and you don't have to worry about innings stress because you have both of them to complement each other. If they both look good, they both stay in the permanent rotation for 2014, replacing Arroyo. If not, you move the less effective one back to the bullpen and have Corcino to replace Arroyo in 2014.

    What's wrong with that?
    Last edited by Benihana; 10-24-2012 at 07:05 PM.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury

    Looking at Boston's roster, it's u-g-l-y. I'd probably take a flyer on Ellsbury if I were them. They'd need his production and he won't get a big raise in arb this year. I wonder how long Boston could be down at this point? They have a lot of money for FA's, but the best one's (Hamilton and Greike) are headcases. I don't know if they can reload fast enough. It might be nice to see them go the way of Baltimore or Toronto. It's not always easy to get back on top.


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