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Thread: Reds Arb Eligibles

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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Reds Arb Eligibles

    The Reds are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

    First time: Mat Latos ($4.6MM), Mike Leake ($2.9MM), Drew Stubbs ($2.9MM), Chris Heisey ($1.3MM), Logan Ondrusek ($900K), Alfredo Simon ($800K)
    Second time: Homer Bailey ($5.1MM), Wilson Valdez ($1MM)
    Third time: Bill Bray ($1.5MM)

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#LsKqOQpiZfy62Lqi.99
    Wowza, cash is tight.

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    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Wowza, cash is tight.
    I see them extending Latos to save a few bucks next year. Maybe pay Latos $2.8 or so next year (would be a $2 million raise). Probably drop Ondrusek and Bray (although I'd like to keep Bray if we can), and you save a little there.

    Still, you're right about a tight, tight budget.
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Stubbs and Leake getting nearly 6 million between them makes it even more attractive to move them than it already is. Hard to see why either Bray or Valdez would be back too.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I'm not screaming at the top of my lungs "he's a horrible bum" or anything, but I let Wilson Valdez test the market before I go paying him a million dollars to do that thing he does.

    Bill Bray is a roll of the dice, but he was an awfully valuable guy in 2011. You can never have too many arms and you aren't going to get somebody BETTER than Bray on the free agent market for 2.0 million.

    Boy that's a lot of money for Drew Stubbs. I think they'll pay it, but...

    The rest of them I sign without complaint or problem.
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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I think you have to step back and sell high on Bailey. Send him out with Stubbs and/or Heisey. Bring in some offensive talent. Maybe we're talking Span.

    Chapman to the rotation with Cingrani/Corcino/Jeff Francis type to fill in next year if Chapman can't do it. Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Leake, Chapman/Cingrani/Corcino/FA guy. Good enough. Especially if CF is upgraded and/or Ludwick can be afforded.

    FWIW, the FA class for SP is pretty good. There will be 4-5 guys that revive their careers someplace. GABP not being the most likely however.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    The Reds are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

    First time: Mat Latos ($4.6MM), Mike Leake ($2.9MM), Drew Stubbs ($2.9MM), Chris Heisey ($1.3MM), Logan Ondrusek ($900K), Alfredo Simon ($800K)
    Second time: Homer Bailey ($5.1MM), Wilson Valdez ($1MM)
    Third time: Bill Bray ($1.5MM)

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#LsKqOQpiZfy62Lqi.99
    Wowza, cash is tight.
    If Drew Stubbs is indeed likely to receive nearly $3 million, I'd drop him like a hot potato. Deal he, Leake, Ondrusek, Bray, and Valdez (total expenditure: just over $11 million) for prospects or one decent but expensive ballplayer, then fill with cheap guys who are likely just as good.

    I'd think a Stubbs for Young, Jr., deal would be easy to complete. Add Bray to the package to see if Colorado needs bullpen arms (they do) and are willing to gamble. (They may.)

    Deal Leake and Ondrusek to Kansas City for Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez. (That's an overpay, for sure.)

    Deal Valdez back to Philly or to Arizona perhaps. Wherever.

    That'd make your lineup:
    Cain/ Young, Jr. CF
    Phillips 2B
    Votto 1B
    FA LF
    Bruce RF
    Frazier 3B
    Hanigan/ Mesoraco/ Perez C
    Cozart SS

    with a rotation of:
    Cueto
    Latos
    Arroyo
    Bailey
    Chapman

    and a bullpen of:
    Hoover
    Marshall
    Cingrani
    LeCure
    Simon
    Arredondo
    Massett

    and a bench of:
    Heisey OF/ RH PH
    Paul OF/ LH PH
    Gregorius MI
    Mesoraco/ Perez C

    In AAA, you've still got Corcino if Chapman struggles to stay healthy. You've also got a backup 2B/3B in Henry Rodriguez and a backup 1B in Soto, who could really blossom in his second go-'round in Louisville. Phillips is the seventh OF, after the six in Cincy plus Frazier, if one's needed. (LaMarre and others are also available if Phillips proves more 2012 pumpkin than 2011 horse.) The 'pen needs some help, but that can be taken care of if Jocketty decides to spend cash on either Madson or Broxton (or, even better, both).
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    The Reds are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

    First time: Mat Latos ($4.6MM), Mike Leake ($2.9MM), Drew Stubbs ($2.9MM), Chris Heisey ($1.3MM), Logan Ondrusek ($900K), Alfredo Simon ($800K)
    Second time: Homer Bailey ($5.1MM), Wilson Valdez ($1MM)
    Third time: Bill Bray ($1.5MM)

    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#LsKqOQpiZfy62Lqi.99
    Other than Latos, I could see all of those guys available as trade bait and/or a few them outright released. Now, with Bailey and Leake, it's one or the other in trade. They have to keep one of them. I would think Bailey would command alot of interest based on the way he finished the season and his postseason performance.
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I have to agree that it would be very surprising if the Reds offer Valdez arbitration. He's more likely to be someone they release and see if he's still around when they're filling out the roster. It also won't be surprising to see some of this group be traded prior to arbitration figures having to be exchanged. Of course, there's always the possibility of just getting deals done with some (if not, many) of them prior to that. When's the last time we had an actual arbitration hearing - five years ago?
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Yeah, Bailey would get interest in a tract, because he's a good pitcher. But good teams need good pitchers, so I don't understand the enthusiasm behind trading him.

    But otherwise deal or decline arbitration on like, all of those guys (except Latos, obviously.) They are all extremely replaceable.

    You could probably get something for Leake and Heisey, probably even Ondrusek and Bray, maybe just maybe even Simon! Cut Valdez and Stubbs, get cheap replacements by dealing the rest of them.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Cut .... Stubbs.
    He has trade value, so that makes no sense.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    ...

    He has trade value, so that makes no sense.
    That is extremely questionable to me, given his salary he stands to make.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post

    Deal Leake and Ondrusek to Kansas City for Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez. (That's an overpay, for sure.)
    No chance that'd happen. Leake is a fourth or fifth starter and Ondrusek is a seventh inning guy with control problems. Cain is a potential starting center fielder and Perez a young starting catcher who got a long extension a year ago from Kansas City.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Trading Homer would be a major mistake, Imho. He's not a player who happened to get hot; he's taken a big step forward. Selling high wouldn't work because he hasn't reached peak value yet. Right now you'd just be allowing him to have his best years elsewhere.

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I let Stubbs, Heisey, and Valdez walk. I would not pay for any of them. $5 Million to put towards something useful like Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake (who even though he was the 5th starter, was a useful 5th starter. He is a country mile better than the dreck that many teams jog out there. We have seen that act before, keep Leake. He is young, durable, able to handle the bat for a pitcher, certainly worse money will be spent on this team.

    Simon is priced right for what he is. Ondrusek I probably bring back, but he is out of options, and his performance is disappointing at best.

    Does Bray's health suggest that he will be back and useful next season? He will be a FA after the season. If his back and arm look like long term problems I let him walk. You need a guy you can depend on. Nick Masset is already a health question mark. Do the Reds need another?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I let Stubbs, Heisey, and Valdez walk. I would not pay for any of them. $5 Million to put towards something useful like Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake (who even though he was the 5th starter, was a useful 5th starter. He is a country mile better than the dreck that many teams jog out there. We have seen that act before, keep Leake. He is young, durable, able to handle the bat for a pitcher, certainly worse money will be spent on this team.

    Simon is priced right for what he is. Ondrusek I probably bring back, but he is out of options, and his performance is disappointing at best.

    Does Bray's health suggest that he will be back and useful next season? He will be a FA after the season. If his back and arm look like long term problems I let him walk. You need a guy you can depend on. Nick Masset is already a health question mark. Do the Reds need another?
    That is false.


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