Reds Arb Eligibles

[LoganBuck]

That is false.

Didn't Ondrusek use options this year, last year, and in 2010?

Edit, I guess he didn't use one in 2011. I stand corrected. Thanks. Bring him back then!

[cinreds21]

Didn't Ondrusek use options this year, last year, and in 2010?

He has only used one option, in 2010. If you recall he broke with the club but was sent down for over a month, that used up an option. He was not sent down in 2011. And this year he was only sent down for 11 days, thus not using up an option year, so he has two options left come March.

[PuffyPig]

I let Stubbs, Heisey, and Valdez walk.

Why would you let players like Stubbs and Heisey walk when we have no viable replacements in the system and, more importantly, each has trade value.

According to Fangraphs Stubbs had a WAR of 1.3 this year, the lowest of his career. Still, it equated to a salary value of $6M.

Dumping Heisey for nothnig is equally perplexing. He's consistently posted a WAR of between 1.2-1.6 and will get paid about $1.4M (or whatever). That's great value for a very productive 4-5 OF who can actually play CF.

[Boss-Hog]

According to Fangraphs Stubbs had a WAR of 1.3 this year, the lowest of his career. Still, it equated to a salary value of $6M.

Here's an honest question: do you feel Drew Stubbs would get $6 million on the open market?

[edabbs44]

Why would you let players like Stubbs and Heisey walk when we have no viable replacements in the system and, more importantly, each has trade value.

According to Fangraphs Stubbs had a WAR of 1.3 this year, the lowest of his career. Still, it equated to a salary value of $6M.

Dumping Heisey for nothnig is equally perplexing. He's consistently posted a WAR of between 1.2-1.6 and will get paid about $1.4M (or whatever). That's great value for a very productive 4-5 OF who can actually play CF.

How much of Stubbs' WAR is defense related, which may or may not be a reliable measure?

[LoganBuck]

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are -0.2 and -0.3 for WAR at Baseball-Reference. I know there are a lot of Fangraphs fans, but I prefer BR. I am not paying for negative WAR. No team should. Certainly not what MLBTR has predicted here. The only way around that is to sign them long term. Who really wants that?

[LoganBuck]

It should be noted, that I am only fine with bringing Chris Heisey back if he is in a defined role as a "Bench" player, not a platoon, not a starting player in any way, shape, or form. He is a hacktastic player, who has many of the same warts as Drew Stubbs(with noticeably lesser defense), yet somehow or other has escaped the publics' wrath.

[dfs]

Here's an honest question: do you feel Drew Stubbs would get $6 million on the open market?

Alter the question to "Do I think Drew Stubbs could get 6 million in the open market?" and the answer is....maybe.

Alter the question to "Do I think Drew Stubbs could get 3 million in the open market?" and the answer is absolutely without a doubt.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Of the players listed, the only one I let walk is Valdez.

Homer should be extended. Period. Even thinking of trading him is beyond insane IMO.

Leake I go year to year with for now. I still think he's going to become a VERY valuable pitcher. But if I'm proved wrong, he'll still be a pretty good trade chip. But trading him is the last option.

Bray, Simon and Ondrusek I bring back. If we end up stashing them in Louisville, so be it. But they're viable 'penners. But I'd certainly have zero problems including any/all of them in a trade. Bullpen arms we've got.

Latos I look to lock up just like Homer. Arms like that don't come around too often.

That leaves Stubbs and Heisey. Looking at the FA market, I don't see us finding a solution to CF/leadoff there. Now if the FO works out a trade for a legitimate improvement, fine (think Choo). Otherwise I'm bringing both back. I like Heisey as a 4th outfielder/bench bat. And Stubbs...I'm sorry, but the way I'm looking at it is he's got nowhere to go but up. He's a freaking walking tool shed and I'd hate to see him put it all together for someone else. So basically I'm open to trading either/both but if it's not a real improvement...I bring them back.

[mdccclxix]

Of the players listed, the only one I let walk is Valdez.

Homer should be extended. Period. Even thinking of trading him is beyond insane IMO.

Leake I go year to year with for now. I still think he's going to become a VERY valuable pitcher. But if I'm proved wrong, he'll still be a pretty good trade chip. But trading him is the last option.

Bray, Simon and Ondrusek I bring back. If we end up stashing them in Louisville, so be it. But they're viable 'penners. But I'd certainly have zero problems including any/all of them in a trade. Bullpen arms we've got.

Latos I look to lock up just like Homer. Arms like that don't come around too often.

That leaves Stubbs and Heisey. Looking at the FA market, I don't see us finding a solution to CF/leadoff there. Now if the FO works out a trade for a legitimate improvement, fine (think Choo). Otherwise I'm bringing both back. I like Heisey as a 4th outfielder/bench bat. And Stubbs...I'm sorry, but the way I'm looking at it is he's got nowhere to go but up. He's a freaking walking tool shed and I'd hate to see him put it all together for someone else. So basically I'm open to trading either/both but if it's not a real improvement...I bring them back.

You've got 69 million committed to 10 guys already. Arroyo's deferred 5 million, so maybe it's 64 million.

Signed - 64M
Joey Votto $17M
Brandon Phillips $10M
Jay Bruce $7.5M
Johnny Cueto $7.4M
Aroldis Chapman $2M
Bronson Arroyo $11.5M (5 mil deferred)
Sean Marshall $4.5M
Nick Masset $3.1M
Ryan Hanigan $2.05M
Jose Arredondo $1.2M

Free Agents - 3M in buyouts
Ryan Ludwick $500k[FA-*] - 7 million?
Ryan Madson $2.5M [FA-*] - 3 million?

Arb 3 - 1.5M
Bill Bray Arb-3 - 1.5 million

Arb 2 - 6.1M
Homer Bailey Arb-2 - 5.1 million
Wilson Valdez Arb-2 - 1 million

Arb 1 - 12.5M
Mat Latos Arb-1 4.6 million
Drew Stubbs Arb-1 - 2.9 million
Mike Leake Arb-1 -2.9 million
Chris Heisey Arb-1 - 1.3 million
Alfredo Simon Arb-1 - .8 million

Pre Arb - 2.5M
Logan Ondrusek Pre-Arb-3 -.5 million
Sam LeCure Pre-Arb-3 -.5 million
Todd Frazier Pre-Arb-2 - .5 million
Zack Cozart Pre-Arb-2 -.5 million
Devin Mesoraco Pre-Arb-2 -.5 million


95M to bring everyone but Madson and Valdez back - 23 players
Maybe add Didi and a FA platoon guy for 1 million to bring the total to 96.5?

Or looking at it by position:

C: Ryan Hanigan $2.05M
1b: Joey Votto $17M
2b: Brandon Phillips $10M
SS: Zach Cozart $.5M
3b: Todd Frazier $.5M
LF: Ryan Ludwick $500k[FA-*]
CF: Drew Stubbs Arb-1 - 2.9 million
RF: Jay Bruce $7.5M

Johnny Cueto $7.4M
Bronson Arroyo $11.5M (5 mil deferred)
Mat Latos Arb-1 4.6 million
Homer Bailey Arb-2 - 5.1 million
Mike Leake Arb-1 -2.9 million

CL: Aroldis Chapman $2M
LHRP: Sean Marshall $4.5M
RHRP: Nick Masset $3.1M
RHRP: Jose Arredondo $1.2M
LHRP: Bill Bray Arb-3 - 1.5 million
Alfredo Simon Arb-1 - .8 million
Logan Ondrusek Pre-Arb-3 -.5 million
Sam LeCure Pre-Arb-3 -.5 million
RHRP:Ryan Madson $2.5M [FA-*] - 3 million?

Bench:
Devin Mesoraco Pre-Arb-2 -.5 million
Chris Heisey Arb-1 - 1.3 million
Wilson Valdez Arb-2 - 1 million

In all it's a pretty tall order. Perhaps they can afford 96 million. I don't know.

[WildcatFan]

Bear with me; I'm sorting this out in my head as I type.

So of that list, here's who I bring back from the non-signed group:

Bailey (and extend him, giving you some relief from that $5.1 m projection)
Latos (same as above)
Stubbs
Leake
Heisey
Simon
LeCure
Frazier
Cozart
Mesoraco

Based on the above projections, and ballparking $3.4m for Latos and Bailey (that was Cueto's first contract year salary, seems fair), is $16.2m, bringing you up to $88.2m after buyouts.

That leaves them short 1 or 2 relievers, depending on what you think happens with Aroldis and what the deal with Masset is. You could probably give Donnie Joseph a shot to fill the last bullpen spot and figure out your closer in ST.

Still need a starter in left and two infielders. Didi could easily take one of those infield positions, as could HankRod. But I know Dusty likes experience on the bench, and it's hard to blame him. So you're probably looking for one veteran backup infielder. Would cost $2m at the most, putting you at about $91m.

So what does that mean for left field? Probably that barring a surprising payroll increase, he's got to be cheap, and he's most likely got to come via trade.

[AmarilloRed]

Bailey and Latos- might go to arbitration. The Reds may or may not be able to sign them to private deals. I think all the rest agree to private deals or enter FA. The Reds just don't seem to take a lot of cases to arbitration.

[LoganBuck]

Bailey and Latos will win in arbitration. As much as we as fans think the team will get the best deal, both of these guys are a pitch away from never pitching in the big leagues again. They will want whatever they can get. The comp to Cueto is probably not there for either of them. Latos is a better pitcher through his age 24 season. Bailey's a different story all together. He isn't the pitcher Cueto had been, he doesn't have the track record of durability, and he is entering his age 27 season. However his numbers from this season put him squarely in the "middle of the rotation" pay scale. Add to that whatever argument can be made for the momentum going forward about his second half of the season, and I don't see how the Reds avoid paying.

[mdccclxix]

I think Bailey is a worthy sell high candidate because his peripherals were the same last year and the results were widely different. I think Bailey is a 3.90-4.40 ERA player, not worth paying for at more than 5-7 per year, especially with young pitchers coming on soon enough. He also has an injury history. His no-hitter came against a crushed and defeated Pirates team, a team he happens to dominate anyway (which is good reason to keep him too). There are times when a sell high moment feels right, and most likely you're not really selling high, you just think you are. This is a sell high moment that kind of hurts, but that means you're really dealing, as most trades of meaning kind of hurt for both teams. If you find a top 40-ish prospect that is ready now for Bailey, go for it. I insist it must be for a ready player for 2013. I think a Span + a B- prospect for Bailey and Heisey would be a good trade.

[LoganBuck]

I think Bailey is a worthy sell high candidate because his peripherals were the same last year and the results were widely different. I think Bailey is a 3.90-4.40 ERA player, not worth paying for at more than 5-7 per year, especially with young pitchers coming on soon enough. He also has an injury history. His no-hitter came against a crushed and defeated Pirates team, a team he happens to dominate anyway (which is good reason to keep him too). There are times when a sell high moment feels right, and most likely you're not really selling high, you just think you are. This is a sell high moment that kind of hurts, but that means you're really dealing, as most trades of meaning kind of hurt for both teams. If you find a top 40-ish prospect that is ready now for Bailey, go for it. I insist it must be for a ready player for 2013. I think a Span + a B- prospect for Bailey and Heisey would be a good trade.

I could certainly get in line with this kind of reasoning and trade.