Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 47

Thread: Reds Arb Eligibles

  1. #31
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,627

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Of course, this has only been looking at the 2013 budget. Who knows exactly what 2014 is shaping up to. Arroyo's off the books. The TV contract enters in. Maybe they resign Arroyo even. Who knows. I can certainly agree with the hold'm approach as well. In the end 2013 is about maintaining LF production, and improving CF and 3b. And the bench.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    In the woods, with a shovel
    Posts
    5,119

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    It's not as if Bailey's peripherals predict a downturn, but that his improvement was hinted at by last year's peripherals (see 2012 prediction thread) and helped along by his being healthy for a full season. Add in his strong finish, and you have a player who is finally coming into his potential. Getting tod of him now for mediocrity and a prospect could be the worst timed decision winch Bob Welch left Fleetwood Mac.

  4. #33
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,627

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I think Bailey's at his peak, which is why it is a sell high. If you don't think Span is a good player, that's one thing. There are tons of options, and typically we have no idea who they are.

  5. #34
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,627

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Back to the budget for a second:

    If you take Ludwick's 6.5 million (leaving the .5M buyout) and Stubbs 2.9M out, you've got 9.4 in reduction. So, just call it 9. That puts the Reds at 87 million without a starting CF or LF. Take Bailey's 5 million off and it's 82 million, which is around where they've been the last few years. Now you need a starter or closer...

    I think with the coming tv contract, we'll see 95 million as a distinct possibility, but next year? We'll see. It's hard getting around any of this.

  6. #35
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,431

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    The Reds have been saving money for this day. I'm not too worried about the Reds having a $90+M payroll next season.

  7. #36
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    In the woods, with a shovel
    Posts
    5,119

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I think Bailey's at his peak, which is why it is a sell high. If you don't think Span is a good player, that's one thing. There are tons of options, and typically we have no idea who they are.
    Why do you think Bailey has peaked?

    Btw, I don't think Span is a bad player, just nothing special. I wouldn't cash in valuable chips for him.

    Could be wrong.
    Last edited by marcshoe; 10-26-2012 at 03:15 PM.

  8. #37
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,627

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    Why do you think Bailey has peaked?

    Btw, I don't think Span is a bad player, just nothing special. I wouldn't cash in valuable chips for him.

    Could be wrong.
    I think he's got a very nice mix of pitches, but generally his command is inconsistent and he lacks a put away pitch often as a result. His fastball is pretty straight and I think he depends on very fine control - similar to Harang. In fact, I'd expect him to be like Harang for the next few years, which would be outstanding, but not much better than this year.

    When I stated "peak" I was thinking "plateau", although I'm not counting on a long stay, and not ruling out injury setbacks. I love Bailey, love his story, love his place in this franchises recent history, but if he's bringing back equal value to fill a hole offensively I'm okay with selling at his "highest" point thus far.

    Again, this isn't a sell off or rebuild style trade where you get what you can get. It's made of choice, not necessity, unless we find out there is not enough money for LF, etc. I'd love Bailey as the #4 again next year.

  9. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,554

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Bailey and Latos will win in arbitration.
    How can you say that when we have no idea what they will be asking for?

  10. #39
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    20,920

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I let Stubbs, Heisey, and Valdez walk.
    Well, we need a 4th OF type that can play CF.. Those aren't that easy to come by. We are pretty much forced to keep one of Stubbs/Heisey, even if we can pull off a trade for an upgraded CF

    We also need a backup inf that can play SS .. We can try to find an upgrade to Valdez, but usually a backup SS either hits or fields well.. not both. Valdez is adequate defensively.. Room for improvement, but not so sure I cut him loose just to save 1 million.. I'd sign him for 1 million, just to have one less thing to search for this offseason. If we find an upgrade, that's fine.

    Others said to trade Homer or Leake.. It would take a very good player coming back to the Reds for me to consider that. I kind of doubt Chapman could make it through the entire season as a starter. No real help at AAA at starting pitching anyhow.. The rotation was a strength in 2012.. not in a hurry to dismantle that strength.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #40
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    20,920

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are -0.2 and -0.3 for WAR at Baseball-Reference. I know there are a lot of Fangraphs fans, but I prefer BR. I am not paying for negative WAR. No team should. Certainly not what MLBTR has predicted here. The only way around that is to sign them long term. Who really wants that?
    IMO, this kind of discredits baseball reference.
    No one is saying that Stubbs or Heisey is a star, but they are not replacement level players. Replacement level means easily attainable off the waiver wire for minimum salary. Show me 2 guys that can play defense and offense at their level AND who were readily available at any point last season at less than 1 million.. ( Readily available means picking off waiver wire, no trades). I'll give you from the end of 2011 season through the end of the 2012 season.
    I'm guessing that would be a hard task to complete. (Juan Pierre doesn't qualify, as he's not a CFer).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #41
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,222

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The Reds have been saving money for this day. I'm not too worried about the Reds having a $90+M payroll next season.
    This. We've been droning on and on about the budget laments for years here, then look what happened the past couple of years. Everyone was STUNNED by the signings. Chapman out of the blue. Extending Phillips, Bruce, Cueto and then the whopper of Votto that hardly anyone thought they could pull off. There's more money than many people think. It's just a question of whether they're willing to spend it is all.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  13. #42
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Posts
    5,875

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    They can let Bray go. Horst looks pretty good and can fill in there. Wait? Oh yes they traded Horst for Valdez. So instead of having a replacement possible for Bray, while just signing someone to back up Cozart who could have given you better hitting, heck Juan Castro could have done no worse.... they get this. Among most people this trade would not register...to me it does on how little they valued Horst and how much they over valued Valdez.

  14. #43
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,838

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    I find it amazing how the small moves like losing Horst are sarcastically lambasted for a team that won nearly 100 games. At some point one just has to realize that the bottom of the roster players are for the mpst part interchangable and very difficult to determine which ones are actually worthwhile pieces.

    I will never ever care about losing Horst, nor will I get hung up on the 25th player on the roster, especially under the guise of a team that had an increibly successful season.

    I'm not even going to get into the fact that Horst was actually a minor league free agent that EVERY team in baseball passed on before the Reds subsequently resigned him, and traded him when they realized that he was not going to make the team out of ST anyways.

  15. #44
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, we need a 4th OF type that can play CF.. Those aren't that easy to come by. We are pretty much forced to keep one of Stubbs/Heisey, even if we can pull off a trade for an upgraded CF
    Agreed, the Reds should keep one of Stubbs/Heisey as a 4th OF.

    We also need a backup inf that can play SS .. We can try to find an upgrade to Valdez, but usually a backup SS either hits or fields well.. not both. Valdez is adequate defensively.. Room for improvement, but not so sure I cut him loose just to save 1 million.. I'd sign him for 1 million, just to have one less thing to search for this offseason. If we find an upgrade, that's fine.
    If he's not traded for help elsewhere, I think DiDi Gregorius could fill Valdez's shoes as a backup MI. No reason to pay a lot for one.

    Others said to trade Homer or Leake.. It would take a very good player coming back to the Reds for me to consider that. I kind of doubt Chapman could make it through the entire season as a starter. No real help at AAA at starting pitching anyhow.. The rotation was a strength in 2012.. not in a hurry to dismantle that strength.
    I also wouldn't trade Homer or Leake for a song, although I would especially consider moving Leake for significant OF help (someone like Justin Upton). However I would dispute the notion that there is no real help at AAA in starting pitching. I think Tony Cingrani could contribute at least 5-10 starts to the big club in 2013 if needed, and he would be needed if Chapman is going to start. The two of them together could conceivably fill one rotation spot.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #45
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    7,221

    Re: Reds Arb Eligibles

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I find it amazing how the small moves like losing Horst are sarcastically lambasted for a team that won nearly 100 games. At some point one just has to realize that the bottom of the roster players are for the mpst part interchangable and very difficult to determine which ones are actually worthwhile pieces.

    I will never ever care about losing Horst, nor will I get hung up on the 25th player on the roster, especially under the guise of a team that had an increibly successful season.

    I'm not even going to get into the fact that Horst was actually a minor league free agent that EVERY team in baseball passed on before the Reds subsequently resigned him, and traded him when they realized that he was not going to make the team out of ST anyways.
    This. I could not care less about Horst. It's like complaining you didn't also get a small sandwich when you won a million dollars.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25