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View Poll Results: Would you trade/sell high on Homer Bailey this offseason?

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  • Yes

    9 14.29%
  • No

    54 85.71%
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Thread: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

  1. #16
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    What would you do with Hamilton over the next 3-4 years?
    Well, Span is under contract for two more years (plus a club option). My offer wasn't very reasonable when you factor in Hamilton. I'm just stating a personal preference.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I don't think people realize just how good Denard Span is. I would love to see him in a Reds uniform.
    Homer Bailey + Chad Rogers for Denard Span?
    I would be surprised to see the Reds acquire Denard Span.

    The team IMO is very devoted to the concept of playing Billy Hamilton in CF. I just don't see them turning CF into a high paying veteran position. Even for one season. I think they will get a cheaper player and move Billy very rapidly to the major leagues.

    Also seems to me that it would be a shame to trade Homer just as he seems to be maturing and healthy. The best asset you can have a top starting pitcher, I don't see the upside of trading somebody who may be just that.

  4. #18
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    I don't think people know how valuable Homer Bailey really is.

    Even if he repeats this season, he's a solid MOR guy.

    That-- at 200 IP-- is a HUGE bargain.

    Plus, he has a (good) chance at becoming a true TOR guy.

    His playoff starts and September show what he's capable of. You don't trade that away.*





    * This assumes he's not the centerpiece deal in a game-changing offensive player, a la Giancarlo Stanton.
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  5. #19
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Well, Span is under contract for two more years (plus a club option). My offer wasn't very reasonable when you factor in Hamilton. I'm just stating a personal preference.
    Yeah I keep running into that, forgetting Hamilton is seen as a nearby solution.

  6. #20
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Because I don't have the crystal ball to say he'll be better than this year, his best yet. So he's at his highest value, well, since 2005 or so.
    By that logic, Atlanta could have 'sold high' on Tom Glavine after the 1989 season despite him showing signs of turning the corner and becoming an excellent pitcher. Or they could have ditched him after disappointing 1990 season when he gave back all the gains he made in 1989. Of course, they would have missed out on a Hall of Famer and one of the best LH starters of his generation, but who cares? They sold high. That's what really matters.

    By the way, Homer Bailey has about the same number of innings under his belt that Tom Glavine had after that disappointing 1990 season. Never give up on talented starting pitchers too early.

  7. #21
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I don't think people know how valuable Homer Bailey really is.

    Even if he repeats this season, he's a solid MOR guy.

    That-- at 200 IP-- is a HUGE bargain.

    Plus, he has a (good) chance at becoming a true TOR guy.

    His playoff starts and September show what he's capable of. You don't trade that away.*





    * This assumes he's not the centerpiece deal in a game-changing offensive player, a la Giancarlo Stanton.
    He's also the quickest way to save money and get big value in return, meanwhile mitigating any risk of injury from him. If he goes out next year and pitches to his career norms or gets injured, you'll never get another chance to cash this ticket. It's a sell high, yes it hurts type of move. I think he would/could/should be in a deal for a big time player. That's what I'm shooting for. I do not want to just get rid of him. If they can afford it, and sign Ludwick or someone as impactful, I say do it. But this all arises out of the soaring payroll and a few intermediate to long term holes in LF, CF, and 3b (possibly SS and C too).

  8. #22
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    By that logic, Atlanta could have 'sold high' on Tom Glavine after the 1989 season despite him showing signs of turning the corner and becoming an excellent pitcher. Or they could have ditched him after disappointing 1990 season when he gave back all the gains he made in 1989. Of course, they would have missed out on a Hall of Famer and one of the best LH starters of his generation, but who cares? They sold high. That's what really matters.

    By the way, Homer Bailey has about the same number of innings under his belt that Tom Glavine had after that disappointing 1990 season. Never give up on talented starting pitchers too early.
    It seems their career paths have been quite different so far. Glavine didn't have injury issues. Their profiles as pitchers are different and the context for their teams are different. I can't worry that Bailey is going to be a generational pitcher.

  9. #23
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    I voted "yes" for the simple reason that Homer Bailey hates GABP and it's clearly in his mind when he takes the mound. And that's half his games. I know Homer dazzled in NLDS Game 3, but that's the exception rather than the rule with him at home. And it's not like we haven't seen these end-of-season stretches of good pitching before, only to see him revert to norm back in April.

    Sell high.

  10. #24
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    What makes you think you would be selling high?

    It's not like Homer has maxed out his potential. He is just beginning to scratch the surface. Starting pitchers often take years to reach their potential. No way do I want to trade Homer just as he appears to be turning the corner.
    This is the point I was making on the other thread. 2012 was a career year...until 2013, maybe.

  11. #25
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Homer as part of a bigger package to solve some longstanding needs for the Reds -- yes.
    Homer just to trade Homer -- no.
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  12. #26
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    Homer as part of a bigger package to solve some longstanding needs for the Reds -- yes.
    Homer just to trade Homer -- no.
    As a fan who suffered through the 2000s slow-pitch softball Reds teams, there is no greater long-standing need for the Reds than quality starting pitching.

    Bailey is a solid middle of the rotation guy who is still relatively cheap AND still has the potential to turn into a top of the rotation guy. If Bailey can join Cueto and Latos as legit top of the rotation starters, the Reds are going to be handful for any team in a short series.

  13. #27
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Depends on what the return is if they trade him. Giancarlo Stanton? Sign me up.

    Denard Span? I wouldn't trade Homer for Span.

    It just depends.

    Trade high? Yes, if you get a killer return. But there is no reason to trade him otherwise.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  14. #28
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Sign him up long term
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  15. #29
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    I voted yes for two reasons:

    1. I'm still not convinced he's 'put it together' considering a month ago we were still talking about his inconsistency, but more importantly

    2. There's a guy named Aroldis in the bullpen that can be converted to a starter and probably worst-case scenario (health permitting) be an upgrade from Homer.

    Homer could be parlayed into a starting centerfielder or leftfielder. I'd risk the chance he has in fact "put it together' with the knowledge that his trade value would yield the Reds a real position of need. Even if Homer Bailey is ready to realize his potential, when you have Aroldis there for the conversion the Reds need Homer less than they need an outfielder. Fans are too often only willing to trade the players they don't care about which leads me to believe if they treated baseball players like prize possessions rather than stocks, they'd make terrible stock traders. But players are assets and sometimes you have to know when to sell. To me, even if you truly believe Homer is about to turn the corner, one has to recognize there are more pressing needs and he would be the most likely to get a return that satisfies them.
    Last edited by Brutus; 10-26-2012 at 07:08 PM.
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  16. #30
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    I voted no, but only because the Reds are very shallow at starting pitching after the top six of Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake and Chapman. Most teams need 7-8 decent starting pitchers over a full season. Trading Bailey only makes the rotation more shallow.

    I would trade him, if another starter came back, but what's the point?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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