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View Poll Results: Would you trade/sell high on Homer Bailey this offseason?

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  • Yes

    9 14.29%
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Thread: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

  1. #61
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    The arguement that you don't go after a high-OBP CF/leadoff hitter because Billy may be ready sometime in the next two years mystifies me.
    IT's not that you don't go after one -- it's that you don't go after a high-priced one that will cost significant talent. There's never a guarantee you can then peddle that guy to fill the hole you blew in acquiring him. Especially to fill a hole in the middle of the rotation.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #62
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    * Wouldn't deal Homer unless the deal brought a CF and his rotation replacement too. I would deal Leake

    * CF would be my top priority - Fowler, Span, Ellsbury, Bourn, DeJesus, Victorino, Crisp would be my targets (in that order). The arguement that you don't go after a high-OBP CF/leadoff hitter because Billy may be ready sometime in the next two years mystifies me. I can see it being a reason not so sign a FA longterm, but if you deal for a guy, it's not like you can't deal him if Billy forces his way into CF. Or maybe you move Billy back to SS and deal Cozart/Didi. Either way, not a problem I would worry about - especially now. Also allows you to avoid rushing BH.

    * I expect Walt to also try and sign/acquire a Top-3 (in the rotation) to combine with Cueto and Latos. Garza would be my guess if healthy. I believe some people are over-rating the chances that moving Arolids to the rotation will result in a dominant starter. At this point, you know he's a dominant closer. Move him to the rotation and you risk causing a problem at two roster spots.

    * I'd do my best to re-sign Ludwick and Navarro, but I wouldn't over-pay by much (if at all). I'd start Mes in L'Ville if he isn't the primary in the rotation. If Luddy leaves, JUpton or Choo would be my top targets. I'd also bring in an "kick the tires" on Grady Sizemore, but the deal would have to be cheap, incentive laden and no more than a year with and option. I'd want a thurough physical and even then I'd be very cautious.

    * I'd try to sign Kelly Johnson to backup or rotate with Frazier @ 3B and Ludwick in LF.

    * If either Madson or Broxton can be signed to a decent deal, I'd do it. Madson for an incentive-laden deal this year and a club or mutual option would work for me.

    * I'd sign a couple of BU MI's for depth, but I'm also quite willing to let Cozart and Didi battle it out in ST and either platoon them in some manner or let the also-ran be the reserve.

    * I would have no problem with Cingrani starting the year in the Reds pen.

    * I'd consider reasonable extensions for Latos, Bailey and Cueto (his deal expires in 2014)
    This seems mostly reasonable to me.

    Couple notes:
    1. I might try to trade Corcino or Cingrani before Leake (especially if Cingrani could somehow fetch more in a trade) but I would certainly move Leake in the right deal

    2. I wouldn't sign Navarro, and I would start Mesoraco in at least a 40/60 platoon with Hanigan. He's got nothing left to prove in the minors, it's all about whether or not he can do it in the majors.

    3. If Ludwick is not willing to re-sign for 2 years and <$15MM, I move on and agree with your LF priorities (Upton, Choo, Sizemore).

    4. My CF priorities are Fowler, Ellsbury, DeJesus in that order. I'm not interesting in paying a lot in talent or money for Span or especially Bourn. I want a guy who could move to LF and still be above average if/when Hamilton is ready for CF.

    5. Would only move Cingrani to the 'pen at this point if Chapman is moving to the rotation. Cingrani might wind up there eventually, but no reason to do it sooner and potentially diminish his value unless they need to fill the hole in the 'pen vacated by Chapman's move to the rotation.

    6. I also wouldn't be surprised for Walt to reinstitute the Garza discussions. Leake for Garza and DeJesus could be interesting considering the length of their contracts.

    7. I think Cozart has earned the starting SS job for now, although I wouldn't object to having DiDi on the big league roster to spell him and help backup Phillips. I wouldn't mind Rolen back but only at <$1MM and a backup role. In that capacity he'd be a nice bat for the bench, defensive replacement, and clubhouse presence for the youngsters- especially those on the left side of the infield.
    Last edited by Benihana; 10-28-2012 at 03:21 PM.
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  4. #63
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    What about thinking outside the box and trading Cueto while his value is high?

    What kind of return would he merit?

    Could you get a starter and a quality CFer in return?
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  5. #64
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    What about thinking outside the box and trading Cueto while his value is high?

    What kind of return would he merit?

    Could you get a starter and a quality CFer in return?
    Cueto would have a pretty high trade value.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #65
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    What about thinking outside the box and trading Cueto while his value is high?

    What kind of return would he merit?

    Could you get a starter and a quality CFer in return?
    Not a terrible idea.

    He should get a Latos like return. Not sure there's a team that needs him that has what it takes to get him
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #66
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not a terrible idea.

    He should get a Latos like return. Not sure there's a team that needs him that has what it takes to get him
    Mike Moustakas, Jake Odorizzi and Lorenzo Cain for Cueto and Stubbs?

    Not sure I'd do it, but KC has what it would take and is rumored to be willing to deal to fix the rotation.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-28-2012 at 04:13 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #67
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    The Bailey/Latos comparisons are some of the most ridiculous ones I've seen on RZ. Bailey = older, less successful (only one above-average season in his career), more expensive, and under team control for a shorter amount of time. You're not going to get anything close to 3 quality first-round prospects for him.

  9. #68
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not a terrible idea.

    He should get a Latos like return. Not sure there's a team that needs him that has what it takes to get him
    Why not make all of our pitching starters available, with the obvious common sense that we won't trade but one of them, and see who would merit the highest return?

    I see no harm in this.

    My prerequisite would be a top young starting pitching prospect in return along with that key position player we need, namely a CFer.

    And I'm sure there'd be no offers for Arroyo. And pretty sure any offers for Leake would be not worth considering. So that leaves the 3 studs - Cueto, Latos, and Bailey.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  10. #69
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

    Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #70
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

    Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.
    I agree. I've been waiting decades for a Reds staff to put up numbers like that. leake is the only one I would think about trading and even then, only if they were an upgrade I thought I could bring in to take his spot. No way I trade Cueto. You'd just have to turn around and acquire another 1/2 starter. I'd be real hesitant in moving Cingrani or Corcino unless it was gonna bring a very top return. Corcino would be my choice to move before Cingrani.

  12. #71
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Mike Moustakas, Jake Odorizzi and Lorenzo Cain for Cueto and Stubbs?

    Not sure I'd do it, but KC has what it would take and is rumored to be willing to deal to fix the rotation.
    The Reds would have to get another solid, veteran staring pitcher in return. Doesn't have to be an ace, but a nice 2-3 starter for it to make any sense.

    Royals don't have that, and the teams tht do, probably don't need Cueto enough to trade away the farm to get him.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #72
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

    Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.
    I was for trading Homer at first, but didn't comment. I agree with this sentiment after mulling it over quite a bit. This team is built to win now, and Homer's not that expensive. The Reds were very close to making a deep run into the playoffs after running away with the division. I say keep it intact, and go for it again.

  14. #73
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

    Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.
    Mostly agree, just pointing out that there are teams with talent said to be looking for top arms.

    IMO, the Reds need to keep all 5 of their starters, whether or not they plan to move Chapman into the rotation.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #74
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    I was for trading Homer at first, but didn't comment. I agree with this sentiment after mulling it over quite a bit. This team is built to win now, and Homer's not that expensive. The Reds were very close to making a deep run into the playoffs after running away with the division. I say keep it intact, and go for it again.
    I think the trick is, can they fill their desired upgrade at leadoff/CF by trading prospects or second-tier major leaguers (Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Ondrusek - types)? And how sure are they of Billy Hamilton down the road in 2014?

    What I see is a team with alot of options. I think they should keep an open mind this offseason and let teams come to them with trade ideas instead of pursuing others.

    Also, I'd pursue Span as their #1 target, but pursue Fowler harder. Meaning, put it out there that Span is the guy they want, even if Fowler is REALLY the guy they want. Never tip your hand.

    I think the Reds are in the driver's seat this offseason, and I think it will be very interesting.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  16. #75
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

    Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.
    100% agree (except for the fact that they "won" 97 games *grin*). Simply put, I don't get all the posters wanting to deal off starting pitching. Has everyone so quickly forgotten what it was like to NOT HAVE IT???? CF is much easier to fix than a rotation. Leadoff is much easier to fix than a rotation. LF is much easier to fix than a rotation.

    Phillips to leadoff permanently fixes one problem.
    Keep at least one of Stubbs/Heisey fixes another problem.
    Signing one outfielder fixes the rest.

    Sure, we'd all like a boost to the offense. But not at the expense of PITCHING or DEFENSE!!!!
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 10-28-2012 at 05:35 PM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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