Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
Something to consider with this pen,

Arredondo 61 IP with a 2.95 ERA, but his K/9 of 9.1, BB/9 of 5.0 and HR/9 of 1.0 don't add-up to a repeat. Something closer to 4.00 is more likely.

Simon - A career fringe guy in his 30s who put up a 2.66 ERA in 61 IP. Expecting a repeat is foolhardy IMO.

Ondrusek went 54.1 IP with an ERA of 3.46. His K/9 of 6.4 with a BB/9 of 5.1 and a HR/9 of 1.3 suggests something closer to 6.00.

Broxton 22.1P with an ERA of 2.82 is now a free agent.

I think counting on the emegence of Hoover and a bigger role for Lecure to fill-in for Chapman is a bit short sighted. If those guys work out, they'll likely replace the guys who had abnormally good seasons and are likely to blow-up. I'm coming around more and more to moving Chapman into the rotation with Leake as the needed depth in long relief, but doing so does require bringing in at least one pretty strong and proven reliever to shoulder some of the late inning load. I'd give Hovver a shot closing, but this looks like a pen that may have its soft underbelly exposed in 2013. Adding a starter to the rotation who is a question mark as far as going deep into games won't help. Get somebody decent (maybe 2 guys) and make the move, but if they simply move Chapman and try to fill the pen from within, I think it will be the team's undoing. Its not just because of Chapman, but a lot of this supposed depth that has everyone so convinced looks like a good bet to turn to dreck in 2013. Its not just Chapman's 70 or so innings that will need to be replaced, but there are nearly 200 other innings at risk as well. I think adding an arm is mandatory before making any move of Chapman to the rotation.

Along those lines, I think they should seriously consider Cingrani starting next season in the Reds pen. Somebody has to replace all those innings and taking more effective innings out of the pen by moving Chapman to the rotation simply exacerbates the problem IMO.
You could have said the same thing for Arredondo last year (8.15 K/9, 5.26 BB/9) when he put up a 3.26 ERA. Yet his ERA improved this year.

You could have said the same thing for Ondrusek each of the past two seasons, yet his ERA has gone from 3.68 to 3.23 to 3.46. All three seasons Ondrusek has out-performed his ERA estimators. One has to wonder if there's a possibility there are reasons for that.

I don't know what to expect out of Simon, but while his HR/FB ratio is part of the reason for the success, he added almost a full strikeout per inning this year and nearly doubled his GB/FB ratio. While I don't expect a complete repeat of this year's success, if he continues those rates, he'll have another very good year. Any reliever with a 7.5 K/9 and over 2-1 GB/FB rate is going to be pretty successful, typically.