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Thread: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

  1. #61
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    Prove to us that Chapman is better in the closer's role than in the starter's role.

    It's impossible to prove that because we don't know. He was signed as a starter. He started a few times in the minors and had success. He moved to the bullpen out of necessity and was VERY good there. But that doesn't mean he fizzled out as a starter.

    If you're scared to find out who he is as a starter because of what could happen to his head if he's not successful, that's absolutely fine. But we can't say he's better as a closer than a starter because we just don't know.
    The easy response is: Prove to us that Chapman is better in the starter's role than in the closer's role.

    It's something that can't be "proven" one way or the other because some guys are just different/better/worse as starters compared to relievers. I fully wanted Chapman to be a starter for the Reds. But now that he's established himself as one of the game's elite closers, I'm sitting back and enjoying the ride. He just had one of the best seasons in MLB history and that's not even stretching it. Maybe the Reds' brass feels that his body wouldn't hold up as a starter with how hard he throws? I don't know. I just don't want to argue with what's clearly working.

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  3. #62
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    The easy response is: Prove to us that Chapman is better in the starter's role than in the closer's role.
    To which the response is, there's no way of knowing if he never starts.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #63
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    He has to start.

    However, if they keep him as a closer, they need to work on his walk from the bullpen. They need a lazer show and better music.
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  5. #64
    Member SidneySlicker's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Chapman has had a hard time developing consistency with a SECOND pitch let alone a third pitch that he'd need as a starter. Yeah the slider is nasty and it is a good out pitch, but he struggles mightily at times with his location of it. As a starter you can only blow gas for so long before you have to have be able to pitch. I'm not saying it wouldn't ever happen, but do you really want to spend a year or maybe two developing with risk of it being a failed attempt or will you settle have one of the elite closers in the game for that span of time and into the future?

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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    His fastball is straight as an arrow, and as a starter, it's not going to be 98-105. Very hittable for Major League hitters in my opinion. Command of the slider and an off-spead pitch would be of the utmost importance. Get knocked around hard a couple of times and lose the confidence and you have a real problem with this kid.
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  7. #66
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    We do know he is an "elite" closer. Top of the chart.
    The average win-expectancy of ALL major-league teams taking a lead into the 9th inning (regardless of "closer elite-ness") is roughly 95%.

    The two best closers in baseball watched the World Series on TV this year.
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  8. #67
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    His fastball is straight as an arrow, and as a starter, it's not going to be 98-105. Very hittable for Major League hitters in my opinion. Command of the slider and an off-spead pitch would be of the utmost importance. Get knocked around hard a couple of times and lose the confidence and you have a real problem with this kid.
    Eh, it's not really that straight when you consider he throws downward across a couple vertical planes. And secondly, because of his stride, release point and how difficult hitters have picking up the ball out of his hand, he's not really that hittable. There's probably a reason he had nearly a 20% swinging strike rate this year.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The average win-expectancy of ALL major-league teams taking a lead into the 9th inning (regardless of "closer elite-ness") is roughly 95%.

    The two best closers in baseball watched the World Series on TV this year.
    That is a GREAT stat.
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  10. #69
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    His fastball is straight as an arrow, and as a starter, it's not going to be 98-105. Very hittable for Major League hitters in my opinion. Command of the slider and an off-spead pitch would be of the utmost importance. Get knocked around hard a couple of times and lose the confidence and you have a real problem with this kid.
    So the guy goes from dominating to "very hittable" instantly by starting the game? While I can see him needing to back off his fastball somewhat in a starting role, I don't think it will be as dramatic as some suppose. It isn't like he's a max effort upper 90s thrower. The biggest concern to me would be development of the offspeed pitches, but such a fragile psyche as you describe wouldn't seem to be someone you want to leave at closer either, would you? Sometimes, you challenge guys and they respond, no matter what role you put them in because they have talent. All I have seen out of Chapman is a guy with a boatload of talent and is a very good candidate to develop and excel in whatever role he is asked to fill. He has proven that much.
    Last edited by traderumor; 11-03-2012 at 02:05 PM.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    His fastball is straight as an arrow, and as a starter, it's not going to be 98-105. Very hittable for Major League hitters in my opinion. Command of the slider and an off-spead pitch would be of the utmost importance. Get knocked around hard a couple of times and lose the confidence and you have a real problem with this kid.
    As others have already mentioned, it's not particularly straight and it's crazy hard to pick up and hit. Chapman's one of the hardest to hit pitchers ever. Let's not lump him in with Billy Koch.
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  12. #71
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    That is a GREAT stat.
    It would be better if it told the odds of winning going into the ninth leading in a save situation for this discussion's sake.

    I'm sure it is still pretty high, but it would be nice to see that stat cleaned up a bit.

  13. #72
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    I don't mind Chapman remaining the closer anymore, but I have to ask

    Why is everyone acting like Chapman would have to dial down his fastball anymore as a starter? Everyone should remember, he hasn't thrown at max effort since early this year or maybe even the end of last. He's ALREADY dialed it down. There's a good chance the pitch speeds you'd see from Chapman the starter would not be too far off from what we saw from Chapman the closer this year.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    If I owned stock in Aroldis Chapman I might want to gamble on him being Justin Verlander instead of Goose Gossage.

    As a Reds fan I'm less enthusiastic. Such a move would mean breaking a great bullpen to improve an already great rotation. And that rotation improvement is far from a sure thing.

    It would give you a surplus (Bailey or Leake I suppose) to deal for a hitter. But I'm not sure Bailey or Leake would land a better hitter than free agency or a passle of prospects.

    And you'd have to hit the market for bullpenners.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    I agree that a strong bullpen is a necessity for a contending team. However, it's just not that hard to put one together, nor is it that difficult to find a closer. Many contending teams don't find their closer till midseason.

    The Nats and Giants lost their closers at the beginning of the season and found their replacement internally. Oakland stated with Balfour, dropped him, then went back to him with great success.

    I have no problem with the Reds going into the season with their current bullpen, sans Chapman, seeing how it plays out, then adapting if necessary. Picking up a closer or solid bullpen arm mid season has been pretty easy for the last few decades.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #75
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As others have already mentioned, it's not particularly straight and it's crazy hard to pick up and hit. Chapman's one of the hardest to hit pitchers ever. Let's not lump him in with Billy Koch.
    It's straight. Not flat. Straight. Hard to lay off of, high in the strike zone, at 98-100+, late, but much for hittable when he's down in the zone. I like him as a closer. Matter of fact, I like him a lot as a closer. My opinion that he fits best there with the Reds. Had a great season and should be even nastier with a years experience.
    Last edited by RANDY IN INDY; 11-03-2012 at 05:39 PM.
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