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Thread: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I agree that a strong bullpen is a necessity for a contending team. However, it's just not that hard to put one together, nor is it that difficult to find a closer.
    In theory it's not that hard to find a slugging corner or a slick fielding SS who can hit his weight. In reality they can be elusive.

    Again, I think it's important to remember what we're trying to do here. If visions of Cy Youngs and HOF inductions are important to you then making Chapman a starter is probably the way to go. But if you want a ring in the next couple of years, I'd tread lightly.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The average win-expectancy of ALL major-league teams taking a lead into the 9th inning (regardless of "closer elite-ness") is roughly 95%.

    The two best closers in baseball watched the World Series on TV this year.
    So does that mean that Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero are equals? Because I would fundamentally disagree with that.

    Using only the stat of average win expectancy in the 9th inning misses the point, which is that bad pitchers (such as Ondrusek) could quickly tilt that percentage into the bad place.

    Better players yield better results. Chapman leaving the bullpen weakens it, regardless of win expectancy in the 9th inning with a lead across MLB.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by SidneySlicker View Post
    Chapman has had a hard time developing consistency with a SECOND pitch let alone a third pitch that he'd need as a starter.
    He hasn't developed his arsenal because The Reds decided to yank him out of starting his first season and he's been a reliever since. You can't exactly work much on your pitches coming in for one inning a game.

    And why does he even need a third pitch? Randy Johnson had a pretty decent career throwing nothing but fastballs and sliders. Mario Soto threw a fastball / change-up combo.

    Most guys do need a third pitch, but Chapman is not most guys.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    That is a GREAT stat.
    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    It would be better if it told the odds of winning going into the ninth leading in a save situation for this discussion's sake.

    I'm sure it is still pretty high, but it would be nice to see that stat cleaned up a bit.
    Kal, even your proposed stat is too forgiving. A three run lead is a save situation. Everyone would agree that even very average closers usually save a three run game.

    What is the win expectancy when a team leads in the ninth by one run? By two runs?

    What is the win expectancy when a team leads in the ninth by one or two runs and faces the top of the opponents' order? The middle of the opponents' order?

    These are the difficult situations when you need a top notch closer.

    And win expectancy isn't entirely dispositive. A closer can blow a save and his team can still win the game.

    The Giants did not blow a save in the playoffs in four attempts.

    Nobody will ever convince me that a reliever who can regularly shut down the opposition in the ninth inning is unimportant.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-03-2012 at 08:54 PM.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nobody will ever convince me that a reliever who can regularly shut down the opposition in the ninth inning is unimportant.
    Nobody is trying to. They're just trying to convince you that regularly shutting down the opposition in the 9th isn't as hard as you want it to be. While surely there are some pitchers who wilt under the pressure, broadly speaking, closers aren't born, they're made -- namely by giving them an extending opportunity to simply pitch.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Nobody is trying to. They're just trying to convince you that regularly shutting down the opposition in the 9th isn't as hard as you want it to be. While surely there are some pitchers who wilt under the pressure, broadly speaking, closers aren't born, they're made -- namely by giving them an extending opportunity to simply pitch.
    I think you have to distinguish between a building team and a contender.

    Right now, I want the Reds to have good, proven late inning relievers.

    If they want to use Hoover as part of the late innings mix, that's fine. With Marshall. But who else?

    With a contending team, I want a solid closer, not just a bunch of maybes. I do not want an experiment in the ninth inning.

    It doesn't have to be Chapman. But any strong believer in Chapman as a starter better have an answer for the late innings. Because an opinion that Chapman should start - without an answer for the closer spot - isn't helping the ballclub very much, if at all.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think you have to distinguish between a building team and a contender.

    Right now, I want the Reds to have good, proven late inning relievers.

    If they want to use Hoover as part of the late innings mix, that's fine. With Marshall. But who else?

    With a contending team, I want a solid closer, not just a bunch of maybes. I do not want an experiment in the ninth inning.

    It doesn't have to be Chapman. But any strong believer in Chapman as a starter better have an answer for the late innings. Because an opinion that Chapman should start - without an answer for the closer spot - isn't helping the ballclub very much, if at all.
    The Giants just won the World Series without Brian Wilson and beat the Tigers who got there with Jose Valverde. Last year, the Cardinals won with Jason Motte, beating the Rangers with a good, though certainly not overwhelming, Neftali Feliz.

    You can certainly be a contender without a dominant closer. You need a good, deep bullpen, but it doesn't have to be lights out at the end. Frankly, Chapman didn't close out games any rate better than guys giving up a run more per nine innings.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The Giants just won the World Series without Brian Wilson and beat the Tigers who got there with Jose Valverde. Last year, the Cardinals won with Jason Motte, beating the Rangers with a good, though certainly not overwhelming, Neftali Feliz.

    You can certainly be a contender without a dominant closer. You need a good, deep bullpen, but it doesn't have to be lights out at the end. Frankly, Chapman didn't close out games any rate better than guys giving up a run more per nine innings.
    I never said you need a dominant closer.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-03-2012 at 10:48 PM.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I never said you need a dominant closer.
    I'm not sure what you're saying, then, because frankly no one disagrees with you about not wanting to leave the bullpen cupboard bare. But I think everyone arguing for Chapman as a starter feels the Reds will be able to find another guy out of Madson/Broxton/etc. to go with Marshall, Hoover, Masset and the others. Who knows... maybe the Reds sign both Madson and Broxton.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'm not sure what you're saying, then, because frankly no one disagrees with you about not wanting to leave the bullpen cupboard bare. But I think everyone arguing for Chapman as a starter feels the Reds will be able to find another guy out of Madson/Broxton/etc. to go with Marshall, Hoover, Masset and the others. Who knows... maybe the Reds sign both Madson and Broxton.
    Easy to say take every strong arm on the team and make him a starter.

    Chapman should start. Bailey should start. Cingrani should start. Latos should start. Cueto should start. Arroyo should start. Corcino should start. Those who like Leake think Leake should start.

    The mantra of this site is that relievers are a dime a dozen and every good arm should start.

    I disagree.

    I'd personally like to see the Reds acquire a very good closer and try Chapman as a starter. But I don't think it's meaningful simply to incant the statement that Chapman should start without considering the void in the pen.

    I think my point is pretty clear, I've said it a number of times, if anyone wants to argue with it they are free to do so.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Easy to say take every strong arm on the team and make him a starter.

    Chapman should start. Bailey should start. Cingrani should start. Latos should start. Cueto should start. Arroyo should start. Corcino should start. Those who like Leake think Leake should start.

    The mantra of this site is that relievers are a dime a dozen and every good arm should start.

    I disagree.

    I'd personally like to see the Reds acquire a very good closer and try Chapman as a starter. But I don't think it's meaningful simply to incant the statement that Chapman should start without considering the void in the pen.

    I think my point is pretty clear, I've said it a number of times, if anyone wants to argue with it they are free to do so.
    None of those guys have Chapman's potential. None of those guys have the ability of being an influence like Justin Verlander. Chapman does have that kind of ability.

    I don't see how you can take wanting to make Chapman a starter and draw the conclusion that therefore every middling starter/reliever in the organization should be converted. That's not remotely what anyone is saying. Chapman is in a league of his own as far as potential. That's why people are arguing for him.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    But I think everyone arguing for Chapman as a starter feels the Reds will be able to find another guy out of Madson/Broxton/etc. to go with Marshall, Hoover, Masset and the others. Who knows... maybe the Reds sign both Madson and Broxton.
    There hasn't been much discussion about the hole made. Easy to draw the conclusion that people just don't think it important.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    There hasn't been much discussion about the hole made. Easy to draw the conclusion that people just don't think it important.
    I can't speak for the others, but I know personally I don't see there as being a "hole." I feel pretty strongly that the Reds will wind up signing at least one of Broxton/Madson (if not both) and while I don't know what to expect of Masset, I think he'll be able to fill some of the depth void.

    I truly don't see the bullpen as taking much of a step down next season. I anticipate they'd have Broxton/Madson (or, again, both), Marshall, Hoover, Masset, Bray, LeCure, Simon, Arredondo et all.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The Giants just won the World Series without Brian Wilson and beat the Tigers who got there with Jose Valverde. Last year, the Cardinals won with Jason Motte, beating the Rangers with a good, though certainly not overwhelming, Neftali Feliz.

    You can certainly be a contender without a dominant closer. You need a good, deep bullpen, but it doesn't have to be lights out at the end. Frankly, Chapman didn't close out games any rate better than guys giving up a run more per nine innings.
    And Fielder and Soriano had the same number of RBIs, so they must be similar batters as well. Let's overlook the fact that one had a wRC+ of 153 and another had one of 116. After all, they produced the same number of runs, at the end of the day...

    The problem is that weak relievers end up increasing the probability of a loss and strong relievers diminish that same probability. Saving games isn't about end results any more than RBI is about a batter's ability to contribute to offensive production.

    And to echo Rojo's statement, the real problem isn't converting Chapman to a starter. In a vacuum, I think that every sane Reds fan would be for it. The problem is that the proposed answers to the hole in the bullpen, at least on RedsZone so far, have been Alfredo Simon, JJ Hoover, and "sign someone else... but wait the Reds don't have money to spend on a top tier relief pitcher."

    Severely weakening the bullpen by moving everyone up a level and therefore relying even more on innings from Arredondo and Ondrusek and players of that ilk (not to even mention Simon or Hoover or other relatively unproven commodities) is a real consequence of moving Chapman to the rotation, and a key question to consider especially given that the Reds had one of the most reliable starting rotations in all of baseball, and that the starting rotation wasn't the single reason that the Reds didn't move on in the playoffs this year.

    It's fun to think about how great it would be if Chapman started and pitched like vintage Randy Johnson and then joined Cueto and Latos and Bailey and the Reds won 128 games in 2013. But baseball is a very delicate game and messing up the balance just to satiate a feeling of "but wouldn't it be awesome if..." is a pretty poor proposition for a team that was 11/10 to win the World Series after game 2 of the NLDS.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    And Fielder and Soriano had the same number of RBIs, so they must be similar batters as well. Let's overlook the fact that one had a wRC+ of 153 and another had one of 116. After all, they produced the same number of runs, at the end of the day...

    The problem is that weak relievers end up increasing the probability of a loss and strong relievers diminish that same probability. Saving games isn't about end results any more than RBI is about a batter's ability to contribute to offensive production.

    And to echo Rojo's statement, the real problem isn't converting Chapman to a starter. In a vacuum, I think that every sane Reds fan would be for it. The problem is that the proposed answers to the hole in the bullpen, at least on RedsZone so far, have been Alfredo Simon, JJ Hoover, and "sign someone else... but wait the Reds don't have money to spend on a top tier relief pitcher."

    Severely weakening the bullpen by moving everyone up a level and therefore relying even more on innings from Arredondo and Ondrusek and players of that ilk (not to even mention Simon or Hoover or other relatively unproven commodities) is a real consequence of moving Chapman to the rotation, and a key question to consider especially given that the Reds had one of the most reliable starting rotations in all of baseball, and that the starting rotation wasn't the single reason that the Reds didn't move on in the playoffs this year.

    It's fun to think about how great it would be if Chapman started and pitched like vintage Randy Johnson and then joined Cueto and Latos and Bailey and the Reds won 128 games in 2013. But baseball is a very delicate game and messing up the balance just to satiate a feeling of "but wouldn't it be awesome if..." is a pretty poor proposition for a team that was 11/10 to win the World Series after game 2 of the NLDS.
    Runs created for closers is not remotely the same as hitters. Closers are in fixed situations. If you're giving up 20 more runs than another closer but closed out the same rate of games, did those extra runs really matter any? The job of a closer is to win games, not maximize run differential. If two closers save the same rate of games for their teams, any extra runs allowed are extraneous because they're mostly contained to within the context of simply keeping whatever the leads are at the time. Hitters are constantly trying to add runs throughout the course of a game and you don't know until the 9th inning how many runs you need.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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