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Thread: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

  1. #91
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Runs created for closers is not remotely the same as hitters. Closers are in fixed situations. If you're giving up 20 more runs than another closer but closed out the same rate of games, did those extra runs really matter any? The job of a closer is to win games, not maximize run differential. If two closers save the same rate of games for their teams, any extra runs allowed are extraneous because they're mostly contained to within the context of simply keeping whatever the leads are at the time. Hitters are constantly trying to add runs throughout the course of a game and you don't know until the 9th inning how many runs you need.
    So are relief pitchers exempt from any sort of analysis, because they fall under the umbrella of "the ends justify the means?" Again, the argument that Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero's 2011 performance are equivalent is a bit too abstract for me to comprehend, and I have a pretty sound footing on statistical analysis.

    Microanalysis and exemption of a single player (a closer) on a roster kind of misses the point. If the Reds had their roster from 2012 or their roster from 2012 sans Chapman plus Cordero (2011), which roster would win more games? The fact that Cordero only blew one more save than Chapman means that the Reds go 96-66 instead of 97-65 right?

    Better players win more games. There isn't a need to move Chapman both because the Reds' rotation is very solid and because their bullpen without Chapman is not.
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  3. #92
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    So are relief pitchers exempt from any sort of analysis, because they fall under the umbrella of "the ends justify the means?" Again, the argument that Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero's 2011 performance are equivalent is a bit too abstract for me to comprehend, and I have a pretty sound footing on statistical analysis.

    Microanalysis and exemption of a single player (a closer) on a roster kind of misses the point. If the Reds had their roster from 2012 or their roster from 2012 sans Chapman plus Cordero (2011), which roster would win more games? The fact that Cordero only blew one more save than Chapman means that the Reds go 96-66 instead of 97-65 right?

    Better players win more games. There isn't a need to move Chapman both because the Reds' rotation is very solid and because their bullpen without Chapman is not.
    Not exempt, no, but also not subject to the same principles as other players because of the isolated nature in which they're used. Naturally you'd want to have the best possible pitchers in every spot in the bullpen you can, but if an "elite" closer is able to shut down 98% of the games in a season and an 'average' closer gets 95%, are those extra two blown saves and 10-20 runs given up really worth the resources dedicated to the position?

    In both theory and practice, runs saved doesn't work for closers the same way it does starting pitchers. Between and average and elite closer, there might be a difference of 1-3 wins a year. But for comparison's sake, Justin Verlander was nearly five wins above an average starting pitcher.

    Just as an example: Aroldis Chapman had 38 of 43 saves this year (88%). For the Pirates, Joel Hanrahan had 36 of 40 saves (90%). Chapman's dominance didn't really help the Reds too much in real wins and losses. Not saying I'd rather have Hanrahan than Chapman back there, but sometimes those extra runs saved aren't having an impact and I'd much rather see them be of bigger use in the first 7-8 innings of games.

    This isn't really a question of whether better players win more games. We agree on that. But Chapman will be on the Reds regardless. This isn't about Chapman or Broxton or Chapman or Leake. This is about Broxton or Leake, etc. I'm as big a Leake fan as there is on this board, and I think the difference between Chapman and Leake would win the Reds several more games than keeping Chapman the closer over a Broxton or Madson. Especially in the playoffs and especially if perhaps this would allow them to trade Bailey to upgrade LF or CF instead of the fifth starting spot. Either way, I think the Reds get better.
    Last edited by Brutus; 11-04-2012 at 01:52 AM.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    I think Marshall is getting the shaft here a bit.

    Dude had, what, a week as the "closer"?


    I'll take Chapman over Leak in the rotation. Leak into long relief, sixth starter. Marshall and Hoover at the end of the bullpen.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    I was not against making Chapman a starter, but I think they let that window close. I just don't think it is something that will happen overnight. I think his usefulness to the Reds, from a "team winning" standpoint, at this point in their control of him, is as a closer. If they convert him to a starter, his best days as a starter may just well be with another organization. I'm not sure I'm willing to make that investment at this point.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    So, just trying to level set in my head.... Aroldis has 3 years left on his contract with the Reds (2013, 2014, 2015)? And he's 24?

    It's really too bad Madson got hurt. This really was the year for Chapman to get his starter feet wet. Pitch the whatever level innings that is a wise increment from his previous innings. Build his arm and body up. Because whatever year he becomes a starter (if he does), it's going to be a transition year. At least the Reds have the Strasberg debacle to use and map out Chapman's first season as a starter.

    I'm of the opinion that you always have to be moving forward and looking for any edge you can. Because that is what your opponents are doing and they will eat your lunch if you stand still. A high impact starter > high impact closer IMO.

    But it's a roll of the dice. You weaken the bullpen quite a bit. The Reds lucked into being able to sign Madsen last year and that took care of the closer decision. Who knows if they can do something similar this year? I do have faith in Jocketty though. He is a very canny GM and I think he can rebuild the BP. I'd try Chapman as a starter. But the arguments are strong either way. Abover all, I don't want to ruin him. His next 3 years are much too valuable.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post

    This isn't really a question of whether better players win more games. We agree on that. But Chapman will be on the Reds regardless. This isn't about Chapman or Broxton or Chapman or Leake. This is about Broxton or Leake, etc. I'm as big a Leake fan as there is on this board, and I think the difference between Chapman and Leake would win the Reds several more games than keeping Chapman the closer over a Broxton or Madson. Especially in the playoffs and especially if perhaps this would allow them to trade Bailey to upgrade LF or CF instead of the fifth starting spot. Either way, I think the Reds get better.
    In your own way, you are shortchanging the bullpen again.

    Madson is coming off TJ surgery and hasn't pitched in a year.

    Broxton may be a closer for the KC Royals, but based on what I saw last year he can't work multiple games, he is still too hittable for a contending closer.

    Hopefully Jocketty is more serious about the bullpen than that.

    And promoting Chapman to the rotation and trading Bailey is IMO a very bad idea. Mike Leake is the obvious odd-man-out if Chapman starts.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    So, just trying to level set in my head.... Aroldis has 3 years left on his contract with the Reds (2013, 2014, 2015)? And he's 24?
    I think that's as far as the original contract runs, but since he was considered an amateur signing, the Reds get the same six service years out of him they do anyone else coming out of the minor-league system. Barring any more stays in Louisville or a trade, he's here through 2016.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I think Marshall is getting the shaft here a bit.

    Dude had, what, a week as the "closer"?


    I'll take Chapman over Leak in the rotation. Leak into long relief, sixth starter. Marshall and Hoover at the end of the bullpen.
    True he had a week or two (and then spent the rest of the season praising the team for placing him in the role he succeeded in)

    Now I don't believe he's make a great closer myself because his main pitch is curve, which is "touch" pitch and is therefore affected by many other things than a guys who uses his FB as his main pitch.

    Can anyone recall a curve ball first reliever as a closer?

    I'm struggling to recall even one

  10. #99
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    So, just trying to level set in my head.... Aroldis has 3 years left on his contract with the Reds (2013, 2014, 2015)? And he's 24?
    Only 3 years on his current contract, but he's under the Reds control in 2016 also because that would be his sixth full year of service. He's not yet signed for that year, but The Reds would still control him.
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    In your own way, you are shortchanging the bullpen again.

    Madson is coming off TJ surgery and hasn't pitched in a year.

    Broxton may be a closer for the KC Royals, but based on what I saw last year he can't work multiple games, he is still too hittable for a contending closer.

    Hopefully Jocketty is more serious about the bullpen than that.
    We could also improve the bullpen by starting Hoover and moving Cueto to the set up role, but that's not happening. It all just comes down to how good can Aroldis Chapman be as a starter. A question none of us are really capable of answering given the role he's assumed the last three years. I don't understand the blanket statement of "because the bullpen won't be as good, we can't afford to do it." By that logic, David Price would be closing games right now.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    We could also improve the bullpen by starting Hoover and moving Cueto to the set up role, but that's not happening. It all just comes down to how good can Aroldis Chapman be as a starter. A question none of us are really capable of answering given the role he's assumed the last three years. I don't understand the blanket statement of "because the bullpen won't be as good, we can't afford to do it." By that logic, David Price would be closing games right now.
    Nobody made that "blanket statement."

    You are arguing against a fictional position that nobody is taking.

    The simple point is that if Chapman starts the bullpen will require substantial focus and will need to be beefed up, particularly for the late innings.

    If anyone doesn't agree, I hope they tend to shut off the games before the late innings.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-04-2012 at 01:21 PM.

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    In your own way, you are shortchanging the bullpen again.

    Madson is coming off TJ surgery and hasn't pitched in a year.

    Broxton may be a closer for the KC Royals, but based on what I saw last year he can't work multiple games, he is still too hittable for a contending closer.

    Hopefully Jocketty is more serious about the bullpen than that.

    And promoting Chapman to the rotation and trading Bailey is IMO a very bad idea. Mike Leake is the obvious odd-man-out if Chapman starts.
    It's the "substantial focus" part that I and seemingly others seem to take issue with. I don't see this substantial focus being necessary.

    You talk about Broxton being "too hittable" for a closer. Have you been acquainted with Jim Johnson? He struck out just 15% of his batters faced (Broxton 19%). Yet Johnson saved 51 of 54 opportunities for the Orioles last season. Even so, Broxton was coming off surgery and was starting to strike out a lot more batters toward the end of the season if that's truly your concern.

    At the risk of beating a dead horse, I just think Chapman's dominance has a point of diminishing returns when it comes to being a closer. Extraneous runs saved just seem to be gratuitous. His save percentage put him last year in a category with Rafael Betancourt, J.J. Putz, Tom Wilhelmson and Tyler Clippard. For as good as Chapman is, it wasn't really making him any more effective as others at closing out games.
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  14. #103
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Nobody made that "blanket statement."

    You are arguing against a fictional position that nobody is taking.

    The simple point is that if Chapman starts the bullpen will require substantial focus and will need to be beefed up, particularly for the late innings.

    If anyone doesn't agree, I hope they tend to shut off the games before the late innings.
    I guess I just don't get the doomsday scenario. We had the best bullpen in baseball last year and Chapman accounted for around 15% of those innings. They may not be the best sans Chapman, but I'd like to think that Jocketty's capable of filling that void without the the entire bullpen turning to mush.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    At the risk of beating a dead horse, I just think Chapman's dominance has a point of diminishing returns when it comes to being a closer. Extraneous runs saved just seem to be gratuitous. His save percentage put him last year in a category with Rafael Betancourt, J.J. Putz, Tom Wilhelmson and Tyler Clippard. For as good as Chapman is, it wasn't really making him any more effective as others at closing out games.
    This is a really interesting point. Two dead arm periods basically drug him down to being a solid above average closer despite overall statistics that were off the charts, video game great. Closer is kind of the one spot where "great" is often equal to "good enough".

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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I guess I just don't get the doomsday scenario. We had the best bullpen in baseball last year and Chapman accounted for around 15% of those innings. They may not be the best sans Chapman, but I'd like to think that Jocketty's capable of filling that void without the the entire bullpen turning to mush.



    This is a really interesting point. Two dead arm periods basically drug him down to being a solid above average closer despite overall statistics that were off the charts, video game great. Closer is kind of the one spot where "great" is often equal to "good enough".
    Yessir. If you enter a game with a 2-run lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, giving up one run is the same as giving up zero runs. The end result is the game ending with your team winning. Closers only need to be 1-run better than the lead they entered with. Dominance is certainly nice, but it's sometimes unnecessary if you have other guys that can perform a similar job getting games closed out.

    I'd prefer to put the best possible pitcher back there, mind you. But if that best possible pitcher can be utilized as a potential game-changing starter while losing very little at closer in actual results, I do it.
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  16. #105
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    Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

    Something to consider with this pen,

    Arredondo 61 IP with a 2.95 ERA, but his K/9 of 9.1, BB/9 of 5.0 and HR/9 of 1.0 don't add-up to a repeat. Something closer to 4.00 is more likely.

    Simon - A career fringe guy in his 30s who put up a 2.66 ERA in 61 IP. Expecting a repeat is foolhardy IMO.

    Ondrusek went 54.1 IP with an ERA of 3.46. His K/9 of 6.4 with a BB/9 of 5.1 and a HR/9 of 1.3 suggests something closer to 6.00.

    Broxton 22.1P with an ERA of 2.82 is now a free agent.

    I think counting on the emegence of Hoover and a bigger role for Lecure to fill-in for Chapman is a bit short sighted. If those guys work out, they'll likely replace the guys who had abnormally good seasons and are likely to blow-up. I'm coming around more and more to moving Chapman into the rotation with Leake as the needed depth in long relief, but doing so does require bringing in at least one pretty strong and proven reliever to shoulder some of the late inning load. I'd give Hoover a shot closing, but this looks like a pen that may have its soft underbelly exposed in 2013. Adding a starter to the rotation who is a question mark as far as going deep into games won't help. Get somebody decent (maybe 2 guys) and make the move, but if they simply move Chapman and try to fill the pen from within, I think it will be the team's undoing. Its not just because of Chapman, but a lot of this supposed depth that has everyone so convinced looks like a good bet to turn to dreck in 2013. Its not just Chapman's 70 or so innings that will need to be replaced, but there are nearly 200 other innings at risk as well. I think adding an arm is mandatory before making any move of Chapman to the rotation.

    Along those lines, I think they should seriously consider Cingrani starting next season in the Reds pen. Somebody has to replace all those innings and taking more effective innings out of the pen by moving Chapman to the rotation simply exacerbates the problem IMO.
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